With Bakhmut already has fallen, what now?
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
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Serious question, not trolling: Why has Russia not attempted to destroy the Kyiv hydroelectric station? If successful this would create a chain reaction that would result in the destruction of the entire Dnieper reservoir cascade. Apart from devastating Ukraine's economy, which is already on life support as it is, this would destroy all of the rail and highway crossings along the river, thereby destroying Ukraine's ability to generate and sustain combat power in the eastern half of the country, which is where all the fighting is.
Even if the dams in Kyiv are a no-go because of air defenses, the Kaniv hydroelectric station is still quite far up along the river while being out of range of Kyiv's SAMs. Destroying it would have nearly the same effect and require much fewer missiles. Nuclear-level destruction via conventional means.
They could put the Zaporizhia NPP into a cold shutdown and evacuate forces near the river in Kherson beforehand. What gives them pause? I am at a loss
Even if the dams in Kyiv are a no-go because of air defenses, the Kaniv hydroelectric station is still quite far up along the river while being out of range of Kyiv's SAMs. Destroying it would have nearly the same effect and require much fewer missiles. Nuclear-level destruction via conventional means.
They could put the Zaporizhia NPP into a cold shutdown and evacuate forces near the river in Kherson beforehand. What gives them pause? I am at a loss
The analysis of Suriyak.
After most of the FARC surrendered, a lot of death squad members ended up without a job and many of them have only known violence since they were kids so they couldn't do much else other than become mercenaries in one war or another or work for the Cartels in Mexico.
Yeah, my coment was mostly about the E version. With the focus on LO improvements and bringing it closer to 5th gen, I would think it has become more finicky, less rugged and more delicate to maintain. But its just speculation on my part
There is also a lot of speculation in pro-RU telegram about Zaluzhnyi having been injured during a strike early in May thus why he hasn't shown up anywhere anymore specially after what just happened in Bakhmut. If it ends up being true, it would be quite the PR win for the Russians.
it is precisely because this is such a destructive thing to do that russia is unlikely to resort to this unless situation is really dire...i imagine even China would criticize Russia should they make an attempt on the dams, since China has thousands of dams herself.
there is also the question of just how effective conventional weapons are on dams. there is no guarantee that they can bring the structure down.
personally i think perhaps a lull along the line as both sides reposition troops and lick their wounds. in the meantime the thing to watch for is zaluzhny, if he is alive or dead or wounded. my theory is zelensky wanted zaluzhny dead because the latter is the only person who can challenge him politically, and i would not be surprised if zaluzhny's visit to the front was leaked to the russians by someone in zelensky's circle. also interesting is zelensky's aversion to returning to kiev, if he stays out of the country for too long it will not be good for his power base at home.
Escalation via F-16 (according to Western MSM). The question is, who's flying them?
It'd be the only way to do it as it takes many years to properly train personnel. There's simply not enough time for native Ukrainians to pull it off. It'd be suicide for them. Also, using "advisors" can prevent government oversight (IIRC); not that any of them care.
this is a good point. to counter this russia will really have to up their production of iskander and kinzhal, in order to hit the airbases that house these f-16s.