The War in the Ukraine

Zichan said:

I disagree. Russian ISR has been repeatedly demonstrated as bad in this war. They totally missed the Ukrainian buildup
in the Kharkiv area in September of last year and in a matter of two days their battle lines collapsed with Ukraine advancing 50km in the time span. Entire Russian units were lost in the general rout that ensued.

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It was successfull use of airpower in Kharkiv area that made Ukranians reluctant in South when Russian withdrawl as Ukranians consider it as trap. you should read some arabic version of news what is disinformation and what is real.
for same reason Russia is highly reluctant to use Belarus for logistic intensive operations. Belarus does not have many trade openings left so Russia does not want to overburden its logistics. They also building city bypasses on highways at accelerated pace down in South to smooth out the logistics and not interfere with upcoming tourist season.

Russian Lancet drone hits loaded Ukrainian RM-70 MLRS.

gelgoog said:

The Russian Air Force was way more active in ground attacks in Syria despite having less aircraft there. The reason why this is not possible in Ukraine is the extensive IADS that Ukraine had from Soviet times including the S-300 and Buk. This means it is harder to spot targets from the sky with combat aircraft and perform high altitude bombing until those air defense assets are degraded.

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I think if (example) Ukraine was using cold war era western IADS like PAC-1/2 late 80's version and other NATO late 80's SAM systems instead of Soviet, I think I can speak for many and say it would be understandable the current sate of Russia's air force in this war but not against systems they themselves still use are are so familiar with. Jamming these soviet IADS should not be even an issue for Russian air force since they know exactly the em spectrum of these systems but here we are.

SolarWarden said:

I think if (example) Ukraine was using cold war era western IADS like PAC-1/2 late 80's version and other NATO late 80's SAM systems instead of Soviet, I think I can speak for many and say it would be understandable the current sate of Russia's air force in this war but not against systems they themselves still use are are so familiar with. Jamming these soviet IADS should not be even an issue for Russian air force since they know exactly the em spectrum of these systems but here we are.

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About that, I think I read somewhere on this thread that the Ukrainians modernized/modified their Soviet systems wich resulted in them having longer range and other differences. This apparently surprised the Russians at first which led to some of the early shootdowns.

SolarWarden said:

Jamming these soviet IADS should not be even an issue for Russian air force since they know exactly the em spectrum of these systems but here we are.

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as if jamming phased array system are easy. Like, how Scott o Grady managed to get shot down despite US literally have Sa-6 system in Tolicha Peak and being familiar with it since 1970's. These 2K12 Kub are not even having Phased array radar and not having its own radar/launcher.

Ukraine in other hand have generation ahead S-300P's and Buk's, these are much harder to jam or in case of Buk's, you have to suppress every single telar's due to it having "R" parts in it unlike older 2K12 or S-75.

Jamming itself are scored -statistically- as you can never replicate the condition you have in test.

Virtup said:

About that, I think I read somewhere on this thread that the Ukrainians modernized/modified their Soviet systems wich resulted in them having longer range and other differences. This apparently surprised the Russians at first which led to some of the early shootdowns.

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Are they really ?

In fact their new air defense system was never really got off the ground, they do have cooperation in developing the Osa-1T but they never really got them operational. They supposed to have their own S-300 analogs the "Kilchen" but where were they.

SolarWarden said:

I think if (example) Ukraine was using cold war era western IADS like PAC-1/2 late 80's version and other NATO late 80's SAM systems instead of Soviet, I think I can speak for many and say it would be understandable the current sate of Russia's air force in this war but not against systems they themselves still use are are so familiar with. Jamming these soviet IADS should not be even an issue for Russian air force since they know exactly the em spectrum of these systems but here we are.

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Last recent Russian missile wave, most cruise missiles and suicide drones got through. Not referring to the Kinzhals which are a guaranteed.

In addition to within the last two weeks or so, three Kh-31p were fired against radar systems in Odessa, with Russian MoD claiming kills.

Most radar hunts and kills nowadays are concentrated against counter battery, specifically against US supplied AN/TPQ-36 and AN/TPQ-50. We have already seen Lancet kills against Spoon Rest, Nebo and various S-300 radars. But of course Ukraine can still use NATO AWACs flying off the Polish border for long range search and the Russians cannot touch them. You cannot hunt for AD fire control radars when these radars are not in use since you don't have signals to detect, ID, jam or geolocate upon. Everything about an S-300, Buk, or Tor is to make it difficult against SEAD and DEAD using quick shoot and scoot tactics. This is why as it turns out, the best way to find AD system is to visually spot them by UAV and hit them with killer drones. Unlike HARM systems which can go only after actively working radar systems, loitering suicide drones can go after turned off radar systems, AD systems on the move, and target even the launchers. Just as there has been Lancet kills against Ukrainian AD, including S-300 radars and launchers, Buk systems and Osas, there is also recorded Switchblade kills against Russian AD, an S -300V launcher and a Tor being mission killed. Against increasing drone intensive environments, it's notable that the Russians are now bringing out modernized ZSU vehicles, and gun based AD may return.

The end effect of Lancet kills against Ukrainian AD near the front and Geran attacks behind the lines is that Ukrainian AD are moved further back beyond Lancet and KUB range and concentrated to defend depots and infrastructure against Geran and Kaliber attacks. This leaves frontal lines to defend themselves only using MANPADS squads. The MANPADS are still occasionally effective against low flying CAS. However we are seeing Russian jets dropping FAB recently from high altitude, taking out targets both at Avdiivka and Kremennaya, pointing that Russian air is now more bolder because of the lack of longer and mid range air cover in these areas.

"Prigozhin: the number of new fighters in the units of the PMC "Wagner" by May is planned to increase by 30,000 "


ISW identified 62 recruiting stations all across Russia for Wagner PMC.

"According to him, sometimes up to 1200 people a day are recruited in regional centers. At the same time, the average number of candidates varies from 500 to 800 volunteers.

"Perhaps, after some time, this number of fighters, so to speak, recruits, it may decrease slightly. But, nevertheless, by mid-May, we plan that the number of fighters in the units will increase by about 30 thousand, "Prigozhin said.'

PMC is a growth industry in Russia, there is always some amount of people that would actually volunteer to do the most dangerous tasks.

An advertisement I saw for Wagner said "Join the Ministry of Attack", clearly a riff on the Ministry of Defense.

The crew of the Russian T-90M Proryv tank spoke about the assault on the stronghold of the Ukrainian army from a closed firing position and their impressions of the new T-90M Proryv tank, the tank’s fire was corrected from the UAV.


The English Stormer HVM air defense system of the Ukrainian army came under attack from the Russian Lancet kamikaze drone. This is the first defeat by Lancet kamikaze drones of the Stormer air defense system, it is worth noting that the Lancet drone is a difficult target for air defense of this type.


Footage of the work of Russian snipers in Ukraine. The calculation uses the Austrian Steyr-Mannlicher SSG 08 7.62 mm sniper rifle. The effective range of the rifle is 1500 meters, the price is about 8 thousand euros.


Presumably, the first use of American JDAM-ER bombs by Ukrainian aircraft. The bombing was reportedly carried out in the Kurdyumovka area near Bakhmut. Most likely, the JDAM-ER bomb was dropped by aircraft from the deep rear in the roll-up mode, since flights over Bakhmut and at high altitude are dangerous for aviation.


Footage of the combat work of the Russian crew of the Tor-M2U anti-aircraft missile system in Ukraine, as reported, the Tor-M2 air defense system shot down a reconnaissance drone of the Ukrainian army on the front line. Also, the calculation of the air defense system spoke about the goals for which they work in Ukraine, mainly MLRS of the Ukrainian army and unmanned aerial vehicles.

Stealthflanker said:

Are they really ?

In fact their new air defense system was never really got off the ground, they do have cooperation in developing the Osa-1T but they never really got them operational. They supposed to have their own S-300 analogs the "Kilchen" but where were they.

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It was reported by RUSI last year that Ukraine modified the emissions of their GBAD systems to make them more resilient to Russian EW.

Nonetheless, according to RUSI, Russian EW and decoys were highly effective at disrupting Ukraine’s Buk and S-300 in the first weeks of the war. However, the highly successful Russian EW caused serious electronic fratricide disrupting Russian systems as well.

They also wrote that Ukraine found it easy to jam the A-50M.

The russians built a small drone similar to what the Ukrainians do with their adaptation of a PG-7V, here being a hollow-point warhead built under a low-cost drone.

By the way, the Iranians send the Shaheds on the Il-76 transport aircraft to Russia. They say that the russians should start manufacturing these aerial means on their soil in April or May. This will open up a large margin between domestic manufacture and receipt via Iran, which can provide the Russians with a large quantity of these drones and high availability for use. Today I see that the Russians are still well behind the Ukrainians in terms of Loitering, but they seem to be chasing.

The AFU attempted an offensive in Polohy, a village in Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia, with an Army detachment. It seems that the Ukrainians were caught in a Killzone and were attacked by artillery and ATGMs. I imagine this was a probe by the Ukrainians. Polohy is the first line of defense of the Tokmak-Chernihivka-Bilmak line. From what is understood, the images above were taken near Dorozhnianka, a few km from Polohy. That's where an AFU spring-summer offensive is expected. The AFU is said to have gathered a large amount of troops at Huliapole, a few kilometers from Polohy.

More images from the attack on Polohy

This has already been posted, but I'll reinforce. Compiled map of Russian fortifications across Ukraine and struck me on two points:

There is a suggestive gap between the Russian defenses in Zaporizhzhia. We know that there was a reinforcement in the defense, with layered fortifications and I don't know if the map is updated after the recent constructions or if it is really a gap in the defenses; It is

Kherson is virtually impenetrable to the AFU due to layered defenses. There is no way the AFU could get through a large amount of troops with the amount of places covered by fortifications, interspersed with minefields on the bank of the Dniper.

Situation in Avdiivka has been developing similar to situation in Bakhmut. Leading the advances are mobilized troops from the Russian Army, along with troops from Donbas (Donetsk) militias, such as the "Somali" and "Sparta" Battalion. Avdiivka is extremely important to the sector, together with Ugledar and Marynka, they form a robust defense line for the AFU. Avdiivka's fall could expose Pervomaisk's flank, thus Marynka would be more vulnerable and thus expose Ugledar's flank. The fall of the defense line could pave the way for an offensive targeting Pokrovsk in the future. There are those who believe that the Russians are forming a great pincer against Kramatorsk and Slavyansk through Bakhmut and these developments in Avdiivka. Avdiivka being secured would allow the Russians to maneuver against the three cities that are an impediment to advancing against Konstantinivka from the south and southwest, which are Nio-York, Petrivka and Toretsk.

There are still developments across Seversk.

Currently, there is the possibility of a major Russian offensive at least three points, being Kharkiv via the Svatove-Kremmina line (Kupyansk and Lyman), Avdiivka (Central-Donbass) and Seversk. In all, there is apparently a clear intention to attack Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.

Today Iran informed the Russians that they can already produce the Kaman-22 drone. I think this is an indication that Iran should provide the Russians with their newest drone, instead of the speculated ones from the Shahed family, especially the 129 and the 149. a much more robust drone than the Orion and will be a great addition to the Russians.

The Russians carried out a massive attack by Shahed drones across the front, especially against Dnipropetrovsk and Konstantinivka. With the news of two corps being formed in Ukraine by the AFU, in Dnipropetrovsk oblast - specifically in Novomoskovsk, there is a brigade formation center with the remnants of regular brigades that suffered many casualties on the front line with the newly mobilized.

The targets appear to be ammunition and fuel depots in several cities across Ukraine, including Kiev.

Here is a record of a Russian attack on a Ukrainian trench and the importance of covering the flanks

There was another small AFU offensive in Zaporizhzhia, this time near Orikhov. Putting this offensive together with the previous offensive denotes that the AFU is reconnoitring the Russian defense lines, preparing for the offensive in the spring and indicates that it will be right there. If it's something diversionary, I think the other place that would have the offensive is Bakhmut, but I find it difficult to get any results there.


AFU troops attempted to cross the Dniper, but were spotted by an outpost of Russian troops on the occupied bank and opened fire with artillery support. It seems to me another attempt at recognition.

The AFU is said to have accumulated 11,000 troops in Kherson Oblast. It seems to me that they will bet on a diversionary attack, trying to cross the river with troops, the main one being in Zaporizhzhia.

11,000 is an insufficient amount to attempt any success in Kherson, not least because of the amount of Russian fortifications, in addition to all the Russian vigilance. But I still see the AFU trying to divert Russia's troops and attention in Kherson.

The attempt would have been close to Kakhovka:

Again the AFU attempted armed reconnaissance in Zaporizhzhia, again in Orikhov