Operation Dagger or Operation In "Their Dreams". I am sure the Russians would love to pull off the above described grand plan to encircle the bulk of Ukraine's forces in the East. Though it remains to be seen whether they have both the resources and enough capable willing motivated troops. Now if only they could get to the Dniper and destroy the bridges before the new tanks arrive in Ukraine
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Operation Dagger or Operation In "Their Dreams". I am sure the Russians would love to pull off the above described grand plan to encircle the bulk of Ukraine's forces in the East. Though it remains to be seen whether they have both the resources and enough capable willing motivated troops. Now if only they could get to the Dniper and destroy the bridges before the new tanks arrive in Ukraine
So what's the Russian goal with this new offensive, is it to reach the Dnipro River or just a few kilometers from current position? I think Ukraine will be more than happy if by late spring Russia has only gained a dozen-plus kilometers including Bakhmut. Ukraine will more than likely take it all back and a lot more when they launch their offensive with western tanks, ifv's, apc's and SP-arty.... and the 90+ Czech and Polish upgraded T-72's.
would not be surprised if the ukrainian government is just trying to drag out this affair in bakhmut until after the anniversary of the war. it isnt good for propaganda if you lose a critical battle around the one year mark.
The Russian gains are measured in meters. I think it has been 6 months now since they have tried to take Bakhmut which if you average their gains a day from 6 months ago from current position it literally measures in meters. Operation Dagger is way too optimistic even for Russia... right?
Cutting off the east at the Dniper is quite a good move, they had the chance to drive explosive loaded trucks to more than half of these bridges in the first week of the war and blow them up. But they didn't do it.
Some bridges are dams and cannot be destroyed without insane level of destruction but they can be disabled like at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant. Only the roads have been disabled in the Kherson retreat.
Now is quite hard to pull it off, to push like that they would need more than twice the troops involved to keep the front stable and not being cutted off. They would double the lenght of the front. With troops having their back on the Dniper and artillery coming from the other side...
Well the artillery from the other side only reaches 90 km at most, and doesn't even have the range to shoot over the Dnieper at worst. The Dnieper reaches up to 25 km across at reservoirs.
It must be noted that this came from Poland, which is one of the most russophobic countries in the world. They have every incentive to play down Russian capability and cheer Russian loss. If they think that such an audacious plan is even within the realm of possibility, then that says something about their assessments.
Elements of 155th and 40th Naval Infantry brigade have been active in Vuledar, supported by other formations (proxy and army), including one motor-rife brigade (IIRC the 38th, I need to check) plus 2 volunteer battalions identified by Russian/Ukrainian sources.
I do not think that this Vuledar offensive is a major effort, it appears to be an opportunistic and half-hearted local attempt to break into the city by taking advantage of the inactivity of the Z-Oblast for a long time. Now the Russians are shooting the place up with artillery and with Ukrainian reserves deployed there it looks to be positional warfare and another fortified zone. I would not be surprised if in the coming weeks, the Russians do not get serious in Vuledar and the city gradually transforms into a rubble heap.
Rybar did a piece on the last week's combat
I do not think that this Vuledar offensive is a major effort, it appears to be an opportunistic and half-hearted local attempt to break into the city by taking advantage of the inactivity of the Z-Oblast for a long time. Now the Russians are shooting the place up with artillery and with Ukrainian reserves deployed there it looks to be positional warfare and another fortified zone. I would not be surprised if in the coming weeks, the Russians do not get serious in Vuledar and the city gradually transforms into a rubble heap.
Rybar did a piece on the last week's combat
agree with the poster above, it seemed like ukraine's concentration in bakhmut had reveals some vulnerabilities in other sectors, russians were basically just prodding to see if if they can get through. does not look like they will find success in vugledar as they did around kupyansk. but this action did have the effect of drawing ukrainian resources away from more important battles.
Even in the rybar caption it states the immense loss of equipment in this single action, more than 30 in a few days is more extensive than most other engagements throughout the war, especially since this is not militia/PMC. Only other instances where we saw so many vehicles loss in a small location in such a short period would be the failed pontoon crossing earlier in the war.Elements of 155th and 40th Naval Infantry brigade have been active in Vuledar, supported by other formations (proxy and army), including one motor-rife brigade (IIRC the 38th, I need to check) plus 2 volunteer battalions identified by Russian/Ukrainian sources.
I do not think that this Vuledar offensive is a major effort, it appears to be an opportunistic and half-hearted local attempt to break into the city by taking advantage of the inactivity of the Z-Oblast for a long time. Now the Russians are shooting the place up with artillery and with Ukrainian reserves deployed there it looks to be positional warfare and another fortified zone. I would not be surprised if in the coming weeks, the Russians do not get serious in Vuledar and the city gradually transforms into a rubble heap.
Rybar did a piece on the last week's combat
I think Rybar put it in the top 6 or so worst Russian tactical failures of the war.
Yeah, there were a lot of armored vehicles knocked out/abandoned. However knocked out doesn't mean destroyed if they managed to get them recovered before these vehicles become total write-offs.
This is my fundamental issue with Orxy/Lost Armour, photographs of vehicles doesn't mean that they are KO'ed forever. In particular tanks can go into short-term or long-term repair, and sometimes even be operational within days.