The War in the Ukraine

"Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov stated in a January 31 interview with Sky News that Russian forces are preparing for a "maximum escalation" in Ukraine within the next two to three months and may do so as soon as the next two to three weeks to coincide with the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[20] Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov stated in a January 31 interview with the Washington Post that Russian forces will focus on occupying a larger area of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, supporting ISW’s assessment that Russian forces appear to be preparing for an imminent offensive in eastern Ukraine, particularly in Luhansk Oblast.[21] Budanov stated that there are currently 326,000 Russian forces fighting in Ukraine, excluding the roughly 150,000 mobilized personnel still in training grounds that Russian forces have reportedly not yet committed to hostilities.[22] The Russian military will likely continue to accumulate conventional forces in Luhansk Oblast and increase the deployment of remaining mobilized personnel to eastern Ukraine in support of an imminent decisive strategic effort in western Luhansk Oblast.[23]"

"A Russian milblogger published footage on January 29 reportedly of Russian tank units of the 36th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Combined Arms Army of the Eastern Military District engaging Ukrainian tank units in the vicinity of Vuhledar.[51"


So my personal estimate of 300,000 men in Ukraine was not far from his claim. Eventually the Russians will add more than 200,000 additional troops to Ukraine.

Ukraine: 326,000 men (approx. 160K reservists/volunteers, 50K Russian military professional-contract cadre, 70,000 DPR/LPR and 50,000 PMC.)

Reserve army: over 200,000 men (approx. 150K reservists, XX,XXX volunteers, and perhaps another 50K-70K Russian military professional-contract cadre).

Battle of Vuhledar:

Ukrainian 72th and 68th brigades vs. elements of 40th and 155th Naval infantry brigade, elements of 36th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, plus DPR elements.

I saw this interesting part in ISW's daily update:

The introduction of Russian conventional forces to the Bakhmut frontline has offset the culmination of the Wagner Group’s offensive and retained the initiative for Russian operations around the city. The ISW December 27 forecast that the Russian offensive against Bakhmut was culminating was inaccurate.[1] The Wagner Group offensive culminated, as ISW assessed on January 28, but the Russian command has committed sufficient conventional Russian forces to the effort to reinvigorate it, thus forestalling the overall culmination of the offensive on Bakhmut, which continues. [2] The commander of a Ukrainian unit operating in Bakhmut, Denys Yarolavskyi, confirmed that "super qualified" Russian conventional military troops are now reinforcing Wagner Group private military company (PMC) assault units in an ongoing effort to encircle Bakhmut.

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Russian conventional forces may be replacing expended Wagner PMC forces by relocating them from Bakhmut to the frontlines in southern Ukraine.[12] The Head of the Ukrainian Press Center of the Defense Forces of the Tavrisk Direction, Colonel Yevhen Yerin, stated that Russian forces are conducting unspecified force rotations out of Kherson Oblast and that Ukrainian authorities are clarifying reports about Wagner Group forces arriving in the Zaporizhia operational direction.[13] Ukrainian officials first reported on Wagner forces arriving in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast on January 15, coinciding with the culmination of the Wagner offensive in Donbas with the capture of Soledar on January 12.[14] Russian forces may be rotating out the culminated and battle-weary Wagner forces in favor of Russian conventional units that have likely been resting and refitting since the Russian withdrawal to the east (left) bank Kherson Oblast in November.[15]

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This seems like a big surprise to me. I know some Wagner have been spotted at Svatove-Kreminna front, but no word from usual Russian sources yet about relocating them to Zaporizhia. AFAIK Wagner is very much in the thick of it still fighting in the direction of Chasiv Yar and Ivanivske, and they only took Blahodatne a few days ago.

As an extension to this I'm curious what at the Chechens up to. Previously prior to Wagner hogging the air space I recall Russians were using Chechen troops as their "urban combat specialist" and they were involved in Mariupol and Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk. Ever since the twin city of Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk were taken Chechens seems to have gone on holiday and Wagner instead took on the "city fighting badass" role.

Anyway if indeed some Wagner is getting moved around surely it makes sense to send them to Vuhledar and practice their trade as that area seems to be shaping up to be the next centre of urban combat.

That or this is all very elaborate coping by ISW around the "muh Wagner premature culmination" thing.

A T-64BV takes a direct hit from a Krasnopol.


Ukrainian special forces trying to infiltrate Russian lines, but spotted by Russian scouts using thermals and quadcopters. Russian artillery immediately fired, and you can see only one survivor of the group running away.


Ukrainian BMP-2 goes up after being hit by an ATGM. Another night battle with Russians using thermals.

s

Tam said:

A T-64BV takes a direct hit from a Krasnopol.

Ukrainian special forces trying to infiltrate Russian lines, but spotted by Russian scouts using thermals and quadcopters. Russian artillery immediately fired, and you can see only one survivor of the group running away.

Ukrainian BMP-2 goes up after being hit by an ATGM. Another night battle with Russians using thermals.

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Seems the Russians have finally learned to offset the ATGM lasers and then guide the missile towards the target at the last moment to give Ukrainian LWS's as little time to respond as possible.

TK3600 said:

Conventional war can only last 1 more year at current rate in Ukraine, and that is after throwing in women.

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someone mentioned above that this war resembles WWI more than WWII. well WWI ended with a collapse of German lines and the ensuing 100 day offensive. so i wonder if something of a similar sort could happen here, where after much attrition one side ends up just giving out and the lines suddenly open up.

pmc said:

Pay attention to what i wrote. it was and is not in Russia interest to shorten the war. It is irrelevant what other party throw at it. the more the better.

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Do you really believe so? If yes, then I throw the towel...

drowingfish said:

someone mentioned above that this war resembles WWI more than WWII. well WWI ended with a collapse of German lines and the ensuing 100 day offensive. so i wonder if something of a similar sort could happen here, where after much attrition one side ends up just giving out and the lines suddenly open up.

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There are many parallels to World War 1, that its uncanny.

The obsolescence of mobile warfare, which for more than two millennia, has been the cavalry. No match to artillery and machine guns. Defensive technology has overtaken offensive technology, and this led to statism. This won't be overcome until the introduction of the Blitzkrieg. We are seeing defensive technology either on par, or overtaken offensive technology once again.

The use of rail to transport the military. Although I would say this one began with the American Civil War.

The trenches.

Both sides with modern artillery blasting away with each other to soften each other up. These artillery waves are followed by waves of assaults that were disastrous for both sides.

The use of drones equals the development of early observation aircraft and balloons for artillery spotting and aerial reconnaissance.

The development of Stormtroopers to break the trench stalemate. This needs to be read.
Both sides are using infiltration and reconnaissance groups (DRG) to that effect.

The primary use of tanks as infantry support.

Tam said:

There are many parallels to World War 1, that its uncanny.

The obsolescence of mobile warfare, which for more than two millennia, has been the cavalry. No match to artillery and machine guns. Defensive technology has overtaken offensive technology, and this led to statism. This won't be overcome until the introduction of the Blitzkrieg. We are seeing defensive technology either on par, or overtaken offensive technology once again.

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Not surprising this War seems like WWI trench warfare
Without planes to provide close support mobile warfare units are sitting ducks to artillery and ATGMs just as the infantry were in 1918 to artillery fire and machine guns.

Two armies with capable air defence systems has made for a very dull air war.

RavenWing278 said:

s

Seems the Russians have finally learned to offset the ATGM lasers and then guide the missile towards the target at the last moment to give Ukrainian LWS's as little time to respond as possible.

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I believe this old footage.

Anyways, this tank is blind and has no laser-warning system. Also, it is artillery round that destroyed the tank and laserbeam from drone to mark the target doesn’t have to be continuous.

-edit-

apologies, you are probably talking about 3rd video when ATGM is fired at BMP-2. It still doesn’t have LWS, also the video is filmed by observer, hence why it looks like it’s flying offset. There is no need to do apart if operator wants to avoid obstacles, like poles and bushes.

U.S. readies $2 billion-plus Ukraine aid package​

The USAI funds would go toward the purchase of a new weapon, the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) made by Boeing Co , which have a range of 94 miles (150 km). The United States has rebuffed Ukraine's requests for the 185-mile (297-km) range ATACMS missile. using surplus bombs from the conflict in Afghanistan. Each would cost US$40,000
the GLSDB fired from HIMARS can be used to hit targets in crimea
The USAI funds would also be used to pay for more components of HAWK air defenses, counter drone systems, counter artillery and air surveillance radars, communications equipment, PUMA drones, and spare parts for major systems like Patriot and Bradley, one of the officials said.