The War in the Ukraine

SteelBird

Colonel
Sorry, I don't quite understand this statement. What does it really mean to say? To end a combat mission means there would be no more fighting, so the soldiers will have to pull off from their position. But how? They are surrounded inside the Azovstal factory. To my understanding, if they want to leave, they have only two choices; to fight their way out or to surrender. What's their choice?

Ukrainian forces said they have ended their "combat mission" in the besieged city of Mariupol, in a new statement.

“The 'Mariupol' garrison has fulfilled its combat mission,” the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said in the statement.

“The Supreme Military Command ordered the commanders of the units stationed at Azovstal to save the lives of their personnel,” the statement read.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Sorry, I don't quite understand this statement. What does it really mean to say? To end a combat mission means there would be no more fighting, so the soldiers will have to pull off from their position. But how? They are surrounded inside the Azovstal factory. To my understanding, if they want to leave, they have only two choices; to fight their way out or to surrender. What's their choice?
In the end stages of the Chinese civil war, when KMT is driven off the Chinese mainland and they retreated to Taiwan they called this "胜利转进" or "victorious relocation".

This is just like that.
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
I would guess artillery, helis, maybe ATGMs or armor. The RuAF, even at this point of the war, is noticeably absent. The Ka-52s and Mi-28s are carrying the air war.
what are the Su-25 doing?.
I think the number two weeks ago was 2,125. assuming the counts are accurate. if missiles are at such rate than what will be the rate of 850K guided rockets in the battlefield.

 

SteelBird

Colonel
In the end stages of the Chinese civil war, when KMT is driven off the Chinese mainland and they retreated to Taiwan they called this "胜利转进" or "victorious relocation".

This is just like that.
That's because the KMT have all pulled off from mainland. Those who remained would have to surrender or hid themselves up. But for the case of the Azovstal steel plant, they don't even have an evacuation plan, how can they end their military action? If they go out, the Russian shoots. If the Russians go in, they'd shoot. Fighting/confrontation is still going on. How could they call it an "end". They'd need an evacuation plan, exchange with Russian prisoners for example.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Russian telegram channels are portraying this as a "win". But I don't see it as such. Azov have shown the blueprint for defending all ethnic Russian cities in the east. Hide among civilians, and if the Russians come and put your city under siege, start massacring civilians to force them to assault and completely destroy the city. Then hide in a bunker for the whole war while the Ukrainian army gets killed above ground. If that happens this war is going to take a long time.
The largest tank army in Europe aligned with the US, with over 100 combat jets, reduced to fighting like ISIL.
Yeah I would definitively call that a win. The minute Ukraine had to give up on its mobile warfare capability they lost the war.
It is only a question of how long the Russians want to hack at them I think.

Carry on hiding in the bunker making videos talking about how brave you are. When your supplies run out, surrender. The only way they can salvage something from this is if they publically proclaim that Azov will face trials in DPR for their crimes. Which is not easy to do as there are Russian POWs.
They are evacuating them to the DPR. What makes you think these people won't be put on trial? And we have video evidence of the Ukrainian forces in Mariupol shooting at civilian cars trying to escape, and pulling people back into the city. If you think they will get away without being punished for something like that, well, good luck. They used their own population as hostages basically. Well, at least they claim it is their own population, but I doubt they consider the people in Novorussia to be "Ukrainians" in their sense. A lot of these neo Nazi guys, like Azov or Aidar battallion, are basically thugs who think they are above the law. And have been allowed to act like this for over 8 years.

Try reading the bios of some of those people. Like the "Joan of Arc" of Ukraine by Elle magazine. Vita Zaverukha. A member of Aidar. She was arrested at 19 years old in Ukraine after a failed robbery by her and her mates at a gas station led to the deaths of 2 Ukrainian policemen and another 3 injured. Yet now she is walking in Ukraine making "combat" propaganda videos. Where they are shot posing over smoldering wrecks of "Russian" IFVs which are actually Ukrainian models... Gonzalo Lira has some videos of that in his old channel. She's the girl with the black and white scarf.

Time to revisit the Kiev offensive in my opinion. Cities in the east need big garrisons to stop them from revolting, so it's not like they can be deployed elsewhere. Kiev and other west Ukrainian cities are poorly defended and the human shield strategy won't work.
It makes no difference. The troops holding the cities after they are conquered are Rosgvardiya. At the time Putin made Rosgvardiya some years ago I did not see the point in it. He basically merged all the MVD troops into one unified armed police force. Now I get it. MVD police units used to be attached to their specific regions. And this way he has a national heavily armed police he can deploy anywhere either inside Russia, or outside Russia, like he is doing now. I do not know how good Rosgvardiya will be in practice in this conflict. But the MVD in Dagestan managed to hold off the Chechens for months with the local population until the Russian central government finally sent the regular army into Chechnya in the Second Chechen War.

So, no, holding cities does not reduce the combat power of the Russian army forces in Ukraine. And Rosgvardiya isn't being used in ground combat in general from what I understand. Although they have some units which should be somewhat capable at it.

Notice a distinct lack of the words "prisoners of war" and "surrender" here. "Evacuated" into enemy held territory?
You could call it that when it was just the injured. But right now it is just really hard copium. Those Azov guys look pretty emaciated as is so I doubt they would have lasted that much longer anyways.

If the Russians cannot take Odessa or Kharkov in the next few months while holding onto what they have got so far, the party would be over and a stalemate would be the name of the game. I do think it is much harder to crack Kharkov. In other words, if Ukraine cannot defend Kharkov after so many weeks of borrowed time, US/NATO would not have any credibility left for even brainwashing. I do think the Russians would be stopped at Kharkov.
Not necessarily. The main combat in Mariupol lasted like 1 month. At the same time these guys are gaining experience clearing cities. Most cities in the Soviet Union used to use buildings made in prefabricated sections. So if you have experience clearing one, the other is pretty much the same. The exception will be a city like Odessa which was rebuilt in its historic style. Kharkov does have the subway network which the defenders can use. But Russia can cover the exits and let them die there like they did with Azovstal.

It would be interesting to see what those armour were destroyed by. We figured at the start of the war this sort of combat is exactly what Russia wanted and they will bomb armour formations in the open with air strikes or engage them head on with superior armour. However these days I don't have much confidence in RuAF's ability to do CAS.
You keep hearing about how Russia "only" does 300 air combat missions daily. Yet how the "great" coalition forces in Iraq did like a thousand or two thousand flights a day or whatever. But if you dig into the actual data, most of the flights the coalition forces did in Iraq, those were transport missions. Not combat ones. The number of combat missions daily is actually roughly the same. So yeah. Russia is doing roughly the same daily number of air combat missions in Ukraine as the entire coalition forces. All by itself.
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
Yet with all those strikes I have seen little to show for it.
how you know its little to show?. when whole battle is from the air and long range precision missiles.
we cannot even assume the troops number in the actual field. they could be as little as few thousand. not counting the troops who are managing Cities. they give tour to Indian team. also mentioned repulsing drone attack.
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