The Sino-Japanese Naval War of 2012

There is no doubt that a combined force of USN & JMSDF will be able to completely overwhelm the PLAN, but that scenario is a long way into the moves.

I see is a lot of comments on advantage that American & Japanese have in naval combat due to their past experiences and almost hopeless chances for the Chinese.
But whats the true major Naval combat experience that USN & Japan have after WWII? - its same as that of PLAN - NIL!

There is a lack of major combatants for PLAN and I personally feel they should have ordered more Sovremenny's from Russia. These ships still represents the most potent combatant for any opponents in the PLANs arsenal. Additional units of these ships (6-12) are definitely going to improve the strike capability of the PLAN and keep the CBGs at bay, for which these units were initially bought. In addition they need to upgrade the existing units with VL cells which can double the air-defence assets considerably. Russia had already showcase such an upgrade for the Sovremenny and they have now proposed such an upgrade for the Indian ships.

Bose said:

There is a lack of major combatants for PLAN and I personally feel they should have ordered more Sovremenny's from Russia. These ships still represents the most potent combatant for any opponents in the PLANs arsenal. Additional units of these ships (6-12) are definitely going to improve the strike capability of the PLAN and keep the CBGs at bay, for which these units were initially bought. In addition they need to upgrade the existing units with VL cells which can double the air-defence assets considerably. Russia had already showcase such an upgrade for the Sovremenny and they have now proposed such an upgrade for the Indian ships.

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The ship design is 30 years old, no RCS reduction features at all. Propulsion is steam turbine and boilers, considering everyone else has moved away from this, I'm gonna guess not as efficient or as performing as diesel. Adding more units will only complicate, not streamline operational maintenance within the CN.

Bose said:

There is no doubt that a combined force of USN & JMSDF will be able to completely overwhelm the PLAN, but that scenario is a long way into the moves.

I see is a lot of comments on advantage that American & Japanese have in naval combat due to their past experiences and almost hopeless chances for the Chinese.
But whats the true major Naval combat experience that USN & Japan have after WWII? - its same as that of PLAN - NIL!

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There is no evidence that the Japanese and Americans would have to combine to defeat the PLAN

And regarding the combat experience issue you raise you should remember that the British fleet in the Falklands war had not participated in any sea battles since WW2 yet managed to defeat Argentina hands down. This was in spite of spirited resistance by the highly motivated and brave flying of the Argentina air force.

I would expect the Chinese pilots to fly and fight as well but would suffer due to inexperience at fighting an air war at sea.

For example the Argentina aircraft had bombs that were fused wrong for the low level strikes they were making on British ships. Even when the bombs managed to hit they failed to explode. It is small mistakes like that which can decide a battle

ChinaGuy said:

Due to their experience, their superior equipment (top to bottom), their integration, their training, their seamanship, and their alliances, why didn't the US beat the Chinese hands down back to the Yalu River in the korea war ? Perhaps those factors are not as important as you think ? If those factors couldn't produce a win before, why would they now ?

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1st, ChinaGuy, the Yalu River is not a Sea Battle. That should be fairly obvious and make a huge difference in the way this battle, as presented would be fought and would turn out.

2nd, at the time, the US was well aware of the massive forces preparing to attack and easily could have defeated them hands down...and at a time when neither China or the Soviets could have done anything about it...but the US chose not to employ the weapons it had at its disposal.

Even so, with a massive army that outnumbered the US by many time to one, and the Chinese had been fighting and were not inexperienced...still, though the US and allied forces were pushed out of N. Korea by that attack and once again pushed back south of Seoul, yet they were able to then push the Chinese back to the current lines of separation...and had a deal not been brokered at the time, I believe the US would have continued to push them back further.

All of that aside however does not change the most fundamental fact that we are talking about a Naval/Sea battle here where the advantages are on the US/Japanese side, not a ground war with the largest Army in the world. If you want to try and make a comparison there and base an outcome on that comparison...feel free...but I promise you, the Chinese planners are not doing any such thing because the recognize and appreciate the difference.

Jeff Head- the issue isn't our ability to defeat the PLAN, with or without the Japanese, because we know we can. What's unclear is what the butcher's bill will be and if we're willing to pay it. No offense to the ChiCom military, but they can't win set-piece Naval battles with us away from their shores, yet. There may come a time China Navy can do that, but that moment is not now.

NikeX said:

There is no evidence that the Japanese and Americans would have to combine to defeat the PLAN

And regarding the combat experience issue you raise you should remember that the British fleet in the Falklands war had not participated in any sea battles since WW2 yet managed to defeat Argentina hands down. This was in spite of spirited resistance by the highly motivated and brave flying of the Argentina air force.

I would expect the Chinese pilots to fly and fight as well but would suffer due to inexperience at fighting an air war at sea.

For example the Argentina aircraft had bombs that were fused wrong for the low level strikes they were making on British ships. Even when the bombs managed to hit they failed to explode. It is small mistakes like that which can decide a battle

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That time the British outnumbered Argentine in almost every field.
Talking about experience, I agree with "japan and US have more experience than PLAN", but when this experience is about "operating a modern ship, making a modern naval war with real enemy", who, in this world have such capability?
Both sides never had such a battle. US in korea, US in vietnam, US in iraq, US in afgannistan don't match with this kind of battle.
I don't deny that US and Japan have more naval practice than PLAN, but the reality is both sides never engage in real battle ( the psychology is very different ).

I think China is buying time, China won't go to war in short time.

nugroho said:

I think China is buying time, China won't go to war in short time.

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Exactly. Japan is in its death spiral economically and demographically. Ever since they capitulated to the USA in regards to the Yen it has all been downhill.

Talking about experience, I agree with "japan and US have more experience than PLAN", but when this experience is about "operating a modern ship, making a modern naval war with real enemy", who, in this world have such capability?

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Naval tradition and operational doctrine are independent of the type of assets and technology. Also the PLAN has only operated and trained on modern ships for a decade, whereas the USN and JMSDF have had them for a much longer time period. Furthermore, the USN and JMSDF have added new technologies and evolved gradually over the last half century, whereas the PLAN rapidly leapfrogged multiple generations and pretty much have to develop methods to use their current assets from scratch. Lastly, for a long time the PLAN has only had their sailors do 2-yr enlistment periods, and only recently increased the enlistment period and boosted training and increased the frequency of naval exercises.

Talking about experience, I agree with "japan and US have more experience than PLAN", but when this experience is about "operating a modern ship, making a modern naval war with real enemy", who, in this world have such capability?

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Meh no need to glass the cities... just glass the JMSDF and blame it on a 091 reactor malfunction. Sure the USN might have to step in afterwards, but that's when the PLAN can withdraw and China can defuse the hostilities and wait for another day. PLAN will definitely have the advantage over JMSDF anytime after that.

Taiwan has stated its position clearly. They prefer to sit any conflict out

Taiwan won't side with China in isle dispute with Japan: Ma
POLITICS AUG. 22, 2012 - 07:10AM JST ( 22 COMMENTS )

President Ma Ying-jeou said Tuesday Taiwan would not join hands with China against Japan in a territorial dispute involving an archipelago in the East China Sea claimed by all three sides. The dispute has traditionally… Read