The Sino-Japanese Naval War of 2012

In4ser said:

I don't think it was Japan's intention during the start of hostilities to absorb China directly into their empire. Rather it was to protect and extend the borders of Manchukuo over the rest of China and reinstall Qing rule (as a resource appendage and puppet state).

I also have heard it was rivalry between IJN and IJA that caused U.S. to enter the war. Supposedly the insubordination of the IJN attacked Pearl harbor without prior approval to divert attention and garner resources away from the Imperial Army. I forget where i got the facts though.

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Then you really have to question where you read all those crap that labelled as "history", and here's a simple version for you...for its brief period of existence, "Manchukuo" was nothing more than a Japanese colony, sovereign state in name but in deed it's nothing more than a colony, Japanese controls every organ of the state; having Qing dynasty remnant like Puyi setup as "head of state" is just part of the game, and also Puyi is more malleable, then letting Manchukuo "government" to "invite" the Japanese army to stay. Reinstall Qing dynasty was never on the agenda.

As we all know, back then China was in total chaos, the only difference that the Japanese took in comparison with other colonial powers is that they were more actively want to exploit, even gobble up China if possible.

Originally, Japan's aim of expansion is north, into Russia Far East, exploiting the chaos of Stalin's Great Purge, but as we all know the cream of the Japanese army got their arse handed to them by the Soviet Red Army in Mongolia - the Japanese military overestimated themselves, the semi-mechanized IJA was more then enough to handle the pitiful Chinese warlords' armies , but the Soviets tore them apart...with the non-aggression treaty signed between USSR and Japan, the focus goes south, set the stage for Pearl Harbor and US involvement in WW2.

Enough history lesson, now let's back to topic...

There're plenty of things that put the PLAN in a disadvantage position, apart from inferior hardware would be manpower - isn't there's an old saying that it takes 100 years to build a true navy? The Japanese tried to prove otherwise with its IJN and it was subsequently smashed by the USN...still, its cadre survived and it all migrated into today's JMSDF. And not just the mindset of a blue-water navy, but all the mindset associated with a ocean power survived to this day. And eventhough Japan have not go to war for the last 67 years, they've been trained and guided by the one who has - the USN.

Whereas the PLAN, formally began a little more than 60 years ago, for the major part of its existence it's only slightly better than a coast guard, true blue-water mentality only emerged 10 years ago - of course, embark on such an endeavor require a lot of money and manpower. Still, along with hardware that's 10 years behind the curve, it's manpower suffers badly from next to no opportunity to learn from the best - certainly USN won't show its "enemy no.1" the ropes, eh? Though no longer bogged down by ideology and more pragmatic, all the PLAN could do in terms of learning was via 3rd party materials and draw up their own conclusions, or exercises that has no foreign participation...not knowing how the leading navies really thinks and fights put PLAN in sheer disadvantage.

That's why I say if there's a shooting war, it'll be all-out and nuclear, World War 3, since China can only win by turning the Japanese isles into glass.

On a side note: there has been some strong rhetoric coming from the state's newspapers in the last few days, but as any Chinese would tell you, those are just words and war of words can't win the Diaoyu Islands back, bloody and brutal war does.

Double Post

MwRYum said:

Then you really have to question where you read all those crap that labelled as "history", and here's a simple version for you...for its brief period of existence, "Manchukuo" was nothing more than a Japanese colony, sovereign state in name but in deed it's nothing more than a colony, Japanese controls every organ of the state; having Qing dynasty remnant like Puyi setup as "head of state" is just part of the game, and also Puyi is more malleable, then letting Manchukuo "government" to "invite" the Japanese army to stay. Reinstall Qing dynasty was never on the agenda.

As we all know, back then China was in total chaos, the only difference that the Japanese took in comparison with other colonial powers is that they were more actively want to exploit, even gobble up China if possible.

Originally, Japan's aim of expansion is north, into Russia Far East, exploiting the chaos of Stalin's Great Purge, but as we all know the cream of the Japanese army got their arse handed to them by the Soviet Red Army in Mongolia - the Japanese military overestimated themselves, the semi-mechanized IJA was more then enough to handle the pitiful Chinese warlords' armies , but the Soviets tore them apart...with the non-aggression treaty signed between USSR and Japan, the focus goes south, set the stage for Pearl Harbor and US involvement in WW2.

Enough history lesson, now let's back to topic...

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Your reponse does not seem to contradict what I am trying to say, so I will assume you misinterpreted me. I may have made a mistake using "Qing rule" but that is what Puyi represented, a Manchu ruled Chinese state or so the Japanese wanted it to appear. I did say "puppet state" which is defined as a nominal sovereign effectively controlled by a foreign power.

I do not mean to imply that Japan had no designs on ruling China, but it would not do it directly by formally integrating into the Japanese Empire. They wanted to use Puyi as the Qing Emperor as tool to legitimizing Manchukuo regime in China and eventually extending it all over China acting as proxy for the Japanese.

LesAdieux said:

would China go to war with Japan? if it did, who would win?

first about the chance for a conflict: in my opion, if japan carries on with its purchase plan about the Diaoyu island, then the chance for a fight is quite high.

secondly, who will prevail in the fight, my answer is China. Japan and China are pretty much on par on navy and airforce, but China has a large arsenal of ballistic and cruise missles which will determine the outcome.

finally, will america get involved in the conflict? my answer is no. bounded or unbounded by the treaty, with or without the treaty, america is not going to fight. america didn't fight for taiwan in 1958, it didn't fight for south vietnam in 1974.

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Due to their experience, their superior equipment (top to bottom), their integration, their training, their seamanship, and their alliances, the Japanese would win such a naval war at this point hands down.

They are very experienceed in both strike and war at sea scenarios, integrated air arm with their air force, and in all of those areas their equipment, particularly their electronics, is superior. They have a far larger destroyer force and their six AEGIS vessels and newer DDGs which are very close to AEGIS vessels, and all of their very strong cooperative engagement capailities, and the flotillas that would be built around them are still much superior to the groups that the PLAN can field at this point, particularly in any numbers.

So, I must give the edge to the JMSDF.

That does not mean the PLAN would not hurt the Japanese, or that ot would be an easy thing. In another ten years, the edge may not be there...except for one thing and that is the close alliance with the US.

If it was regionalized and a skirmish, the US might only provide logistical and surveillance and G2 support...but if it became a general engagement/war, the US would assist the Japanese...and will do so for a long time to come. The PLAN will have to take that into any planning or contingency.

As it is, my giess is that such a scenario iis very far fetched over those islands. China's real strength and ability to exert pressure will be economically and is what they almost certainly would resort to.

It's simply not gonna happen, Diaoyudao is more of a strategic reserve for the Chinese government, it'll only become a flashpoint if there is some sort of severe internal conflict that requires an external factor to divert people's attention. The good thing is that here Japan will never receive support from South Korea or Taiwan, it however will receive substantial support from the 7th fleet since the island is covered by Japan-US defense accord.

hmmwv said:

It's simply not gonna happen, Diaoyudao is more of a strategic reserve for the Chinese government, it'll only become a flashpoint if there is some sort of severe internal conflict that requires an external factor to divert people's attention.

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When more and more anti-Japanese protests cry for war, and shutting down protests would only mean further signs of weakness, couple with all the domestic problems right now, it could force the hands of Chinese leadership.

hmmwv said:

The good thing is that here Japan will never receive support from South Korea or Taiwan, it however will receive substantial support from the 7th fleet since the island is covered by Japan-US defense accord.

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All they need is Uncle Sam's backing, others are irrelevant. The real question is how much the US willing to commit into this pit? Especially when the Chinese leadership feeling the pressure that they need to prove something to everyone?

Jeff Head said:

Due to their experience, their superior equipment (top to bottom), their integration, their training, their seamanship, and their alliances, the Japanese would win such a naval war at this point hands down.

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Due to their experience, their superior equipment (top to bottom), their integration, their training, their seamanship, and their alliances, why didn't the US beat the Chinese hands down back to the Yalu River in the korea war ? Perhaps those factors are not as important as you think ? If those factors couldn't produce a win before, why would they now ?

ChinaGuy said:

Due to their experience, their superior equipment (top to bottom), their integration, their training, their seamanship, and their alliances, why didn't the US beat the Chinese hands down back to the Yalu River in the korea war ? Perhaps those factors are not as important as you think ? If those factors couldn't produce a win before, why would they now ?

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There's a huge difference between land and naval warfare: on land, you still have the chance of winning despite technological disadvantages, if you've lots of men who are ideologically motivated, exploiting the bad weather, and the other side not that prepared for long dug-out fights...in the case you pointed out, those Chinese troops weren't that well equipped but they were mostly hardened veterans in the civil war; that year's winter was among the worst on record; and the UN command ignored all signs of Chinese mobilization across the border.

And naval warfare is all about platform vs platform, not so much as straight-off men vs men as on land, on both aspects PLAN is still lagging behind world's standard; this is no longer the era that the Chinese can dream of winning big ships with torpedo boats. Past experiences are irrelevant here, as those China faced in the past were either just as poorly equipped, or not well trained, or as motivated...JMSDF and USN are technologically superior by at least a decade and sets the world standard in professional quality.

ChinaGuy said:

Due to their experience, their superior equipment (top to bottom), their integration, their training, their seamanship, and their alliances, why didn't the US beat the Chinese hands down back to the Yalu River in the korea war ? Perhaps those factors are not as important as you think ? If those factors couldn't produce a win before, why would they now ?

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This is simply not true,

On the Yalu, you can pretty much say that the average PLA grunt have more years of warfare under their belt than a regular GI. Where the Land gives good hiding for ground forces. but the open ocean does not afford that protection for ships.

China must wait, even if it takes decades.