The sinking of South Korean Corvette Cheonan

Pointblank said:

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; talk about talking in circles. They are admitting that though the Cheonan was sunk by a 'external explosion' and said 'external explosion' could have only been caused by a torpedo, they 'never said that a torpedo sunk the ship.'

The only way the Russians could make this conclusion even more insulting is if they said: "there was no possibility that the external blast was caused by anything other than a North Korean torpedo, but we are not saying the Cheonan was sunk by a North Korean torpedo."

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Pointblank said:

“The Russian team admitted the Cheonan sank due to an external underwater blast at its left side,” said the official, who asked not to be named. “But while they admitted that there was no possibility that the external blast was caused by anything other than a torpedo, the Russians never said that a torpedo sunk the ship.”

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RedMercury said:

So an unnamed official made some stupid allegations, what's new?

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Mark MacKinnon
China cools toward North Korea as trade with South heats up

The dangerous crisis over the sinking of a South Korean warship poses an uncomfortable dilemma for China, which finds itself caught halfway between a historic alliance with North Korea and its increasingly important trading relationship with Seoul. And that was before North Korea’s always unpredictable military shot and killed three Chinese citizens.

The case, and Beijing’s rare expression of disapproval toward its long-time client, will heighten a growing debate in China over how to handle the country’s volatile neighbour. Some were already questioning how much longer to continue supporting the regime of Kim Jong-il, given China’s increasing economic ties with Seoul and Beijing’s desire to broadcast “soft power” throughout East Asia.

The reflexive position – to provide backing and cover for Pyongyang, no matter what its actions – had already been discarded as inappropriate before the latest incident, which saw a North Korean border guard open fire on a group of suspected smugglers.

The shooting occurred Friday, but only came to light Tuesday.

The Chinese citizens “were shot by a DPRK border guard on suspicion of crossing the border for trade activities, leaving three dead and one injured,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said, using the acronym for North Korea’s formal name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. “China attaches great importance to that and has immediately raised a solemn representation with the DPRK. Now the case is under investigation.”

China has grown increasingly uncomfortable with its role as North Korea’s last major ally, particularly since Mr. Kim’s Stalinist regime defied it by carrying out nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009. China accounts for almost 80 per cent of Pyongyang’s foreign income (excluding shipments between the two Koreas, which are currently suspended), and it’s not clear how long the regime could survive without Beijing’s support.

Ties with the North have cooled as economic links with Seoul have strengthened. Bilateral trade between China and South Korea hit $156.2-billion (U.S.) last year, versus only $2.7-billion in commerce between China and the North. China, Japan and South Korea are also in the midst of a push to put historic animosities aside and sign a three-way free-trade agreement.

“China is about to make the choice: whether we should put the ideological interests ahead of the state’s interests, or vice versa. I think this is a major challenge facing Chinese decision makers,” said Zhang Liangui, a North Korea expert at the influential Central Party School of China’s ruling Communist Party.

Unlike 60 years ago, when China fought alongside the North against a U.S.-led United Nations force, Mr. Zhang said that China would now prefer to remain “relatively balanced” and to let the two Koreas resolve the matter themselves. “The situation has already totally changed and is different from the past. … Even if there are some military clashes, I don’t think China will get a foot into it.”

China’s leadership has long viewed North Korea as a strategic buffer against American influence in the region, and there are factions in Beijing that still worry about what the collapse of North Korea would mean. One nightmare scenario might see China flooded with refugees, and facing a newly united Korea on its border, perhaps with U.S. soldiers still based on its soil.

Others now argue that China’s broader goals in East Asia risk being undermined if Beijing continues to back the unpredictable Mr. Kim. After a meeting in Seoul with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao promised that his country would “defend no one” who was responsible for sinking the corvette Cheonan on March 26, an attack that left 46 South Korean sailors dead.

However, China has yet to accept the results of an international investigation that examined the wreckage and found the warship had been sunk by a North Korean torpedo. Mr. Kim was received in Beijing with full honours just days before the results of the Cheonan investigation were made public.

“I think China is not willing to make a choice between its traditional friendship [with North Korea] and its trading relationship with its neighbours. The international community wants China to make a judgment, but China won’t do so unless she has no other options,” said Jin Linbo, director of the Asia-Pacific division of the China Institute for International Studies.

It is becoming increasingly difficult for Beijing to walk that tightrope. Seoul last week asked the UN Security Council to take action against North Korea in response to the Cheonan sinking. Any action would have to be approved, at least tacitly, by China, which has veto power as one of five permanent members of the Security Council.

South Korea’s vice-foreign minister Chun Yung-woo was dispatched to Beijing on Thursday in an effort to persuade China’s leaders not to use their veto. South Korea has portrayed the Cheonan sinking as part of a pattern of attacks, rather than a one-off incident, linking it with the 1987 bombing of a Korean Airlines jet, which killed 115 people, and a 1983 bomb attack on South Korean cabinet members visiting Burma that killed 17.

The crisis over the Cheonan has unfolded in parallel with an even murkier series of events inside North Korea that seem tied to the question of who will succeed Mr. Kim, who is 69 years old and in failing health.

On Monday, North Korea’s long-serving premier, Kim Yong-il, was shuffled out of his post and Kim Jong-il’s brother-in-law was promoted to a powerful military post. Both moves were seen as further clearing the way for Mr. Kim’s youngest son, Kim Jong-un, to eventually succeed him.

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China Says North Korean Shot and Killed 3 of Its Citizens
By EDWARD WONG
Published: June 8, 2010

SHANGHAI — The Chinese Foreign Ministry said Tuesday that a North Korean border guard shot dead three Chinese citizens and wounded one last week in northeast China, prompting the Chinese government to file a formal complaint.

The shootings took place last Friday at the China-North Korea border by the Chinese city of Dandong, in Liaoning Province, said Qin Gang, a Foreign Ministry spokesman, at a regularly scheduled news conference in Beijing. The four Chinese were residents of Dandong, and the North Korean guard believed that they were engaged in illegal trade across the border, Mr. Qin added, according to a report by the Chinese-language edition of Global Times, an official newspaper.

“China attaches great importance to that and has immediately raised a solemn representation with the D.P.R.K.,” Mr. Qin said, using the initials for North Korea’s formal name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. “Now the case is under investigation.”

Mr. Qin gave the information in response to a question at the news conference about unconfirmed South Korean news reports on the shooting, but he did not provide more details. Nonetheless, Mr. Qin’s confirmation of the shooting and his description of China’s reaction were unusual, since China rarely upbraids North Korea in public.

It was unclear how the shootings would affect relations between North Korea and China, which is North Korea’s closest ally in the region. China has been the host of the six-nation talks, a series of negotiations that also includes the United States, North Korea, South Korea, Russia and Japan aimed at curbing North Korea’s nuclear program. Last month, Kim Jong-il, the North Korean leader, made his first visit to China in four years, crossing the border by train and stopping in Dalian and then Beijing.

The actions of North Korean leaders have been made more opaque and unpredictable in recent months by what analysts believe is Mr. Kim’s effort to engineer a transfer of power to his third son, Kim Jong-un, 27.

China has come under pressure recently from the United States and South Korea to take a tough stand on what American and South Korean officials say was a torpedo attack on a South Korean warship in March that killed 46 sailors. China has taken a circumspect approach to the assault, to the disappointment of White House officials. China’s overriding principle on North Korea is to avoid actions that would lead to instability there, analysts say.

North Korea’s economy is in tatters, and the North Korean government relies on aid from China to help alleviate widespread food shortages. China continues to engage in trade with North Korea, and Dandong is a hub for the transfer of goods between the countries. The Yalu River forms the border there, and Chinese tourists regularly cross into North Korea from Dandong to the North Korean town of Sinuiju and beyond. North Korean refugees also cross illegally into China in that area, often with the aid of Christian groups.

North Korean border guards have been known to act unpredictably. In 2009, two American journalists were detained by North Korean guards near the Chinese town of Yanji. They were released after former President Bill Clinton traveled to North Korea.


Li Bibo contributed research.

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vesicles said:

In ancient Korea, was it customary to give the throne to the oldest son? If it was, then Kim is inviting trouble by giving the throne to his third son.

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bladerunner said:

I vaguely recall reading somewhere, that one of the older sons had expressed disinterest in the job.

This China NK relationship. Over the years its become a classic case of the tail wagging the dog. I wonder if the time is soon approching when China will say "Enough" and engineer a coup.?

Even if the South wanted to take over North, I think the task of resettlingthe vast amount of disorientated NK's after decades of KIm and Son's rule, unnerving

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