The sinking of South Korean Corvette Cheonan

rhino123 said:

For US... well... it will decrease some pressures by Japan and SK to reduce their presence in the area due to demands from their citizens.

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Pointblank said:

Singapore has no experience in naval disaster investigation. For the RSS Courageous investigation, they relied on USN assistance for the investigation.

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S.Korea navy trying to track N.Korea submarines
Posted: 26 May 2010 1320 hrs

SEOUL : South Korea's military is trying to track four North Korean submarines which disappeared from radar screens after leaving their base earlier this week, officials said Wednesday.

Military tensions are high after the South last week accused the North of sinking a warship in the Yellow Sea in a submarine torpedo attack in March.

Yonhap news agency quoted an unidentified military official as saying that four 300-tonne Sang-O class submarines vanished off radar screens after they left Chaho naval base in the North's northeastern province of North Hamkyong.

"It's quite rare that a multiple number of North Korean submarines have left no traces for two straight days. We're trying to find them by using all naval capabilities in the Sea of Japan (East Sea)," the official said.

Deputy Defence Minister Chang Kwang-Il said the submarines appeared to be on a routine naval exercise. "But the military authorities are closely monitoring the situation," Chang told journalists.

The Chaho base is just south of the Musudan-ri long-range missile launch site. North Korea reportedly operates 40 Sang-O class submarines.

The United States on Tuesday announced a plan to carry out an anti-submarine exercise in the Yellow Sea soon, jointly with the South Korean navy.

The North denies involvement in the March sinking which cost 46 lives. Late Tuesday it announced it was breaking all links with the South in protest at the allegations. - AFP/jy

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China to "objectively" assess sunken S.Korean warship
Posted: 26 May 2010 1155 hrs

BEIJING : China said Wednesday it was still assessing the findings of a multinational team of investigators who blamed Pyongyang for sinking a South Korean warship, as Premier Wen Jiabao prepared a trip to Seoul.

"This is a very complicated issue. We have no firsthand information," Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Zhijun told journalists.

"We are now seriously and cautiously looking at and assessing information coming in from all sides. We will, depending on the merits of the case, justly and objectively see and handle this case."

He refused to say whether China's assessment of the Cheonan incident would be completed before Wen heads to Seoul on Friday for bilateral talks, ahead of a three-way summit with Japan in South Korea at the weekend.

The North on Wednesday warned Seoul it would block South Korean access to a joint industrial estate on its territory if Seoul goes ahead with its plan to resume cross-border propaganda broadcasts.

The warning was the latest in a series of moves stemming from the sinking of the Cheonan that have ratcheted up inter-Korean tensions. Seoul has cut off trade with the North and wants the matter taken to the UN Security Council.

The findings of the international investigation team sparked widespread condemnation of the North, which continues to deny involvement in the March 26 sinking, which left 46 South Korean sailors dead.

"We are committed to upholding peace and stability on the Korean peninsula and in Northeast Asia," Zhang said, reiterating a stance that Beijing has held since investigators pointed the finger of blame at Pyongyang.

"If our region falls into chaos, it will undermine the interests of all parties in the region, especially the North and South."

Zhang also repeated a call for all sides to "remain cool headed, exercise restraint and avoid the escalation of tensions."

Beijing is Pyongyang's sole major ally. Its support for any international action targeting the North is seen as critical, but it has so far held back from condemning the regime of Kim Jong-Il.

China said Tuesday it would work with the United States on the issue, after two days of high-level talks led by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. It did not specify how it planned to collaborate with Washington. - AFP/jy

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Spartan95 said:

Huh?

The majority of the investigation was a local effort. External people were brought in due to the legal case (involving the merchant ship). The salvage and recovery effort was an entirely local affair. And it was given front page coverage for many days in the local media. ff

Back on topic, just to add on about the missing DPRK subs:

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4 out of possibly 40 subs not being accounted for doesn't sound like a particularly large percentage to me. Although RoK is probably quite justified in being concerned given the current state of tensions on the peninsula.

Also,

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With China looking at the "evidence", and their premier heading to Seoul later this week, I guess all the parties involved will be waiting to see what China says of the "evidence" and what message their premier brings to RoK.

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Pointblank said:

I suspect the investigation is about convincing China that their nutbar really did this, which to the Chinese mind would require a heavy handed response. I suspect the Chinese have or will shortly tell South Korea and the US to what level of a response they are comfortable with. None of this will be public.

The thing is, there really isn’t much South Korea and the USA (or the rest of the world) can do about any provocation from North Korea as long as China still plays neutral (which isn’t really neutral, given who is always playing dirty). The only thing that can deter North Korea is military action.

Honestly, we’ve tried everything else.

And frankly military action is too big a gamble. Miscalculate North Korea’s response and good bye Seoul.

We also need to consider the possibility that this hasn’t been orchestrated by Kim Jong-Il. I mean, the regime actually apologized—let me repeat that, apologized—to the citizens of North Korea for the effects of the currency reform. I don’t recall too much apologizing while North Koreans were dying of starvation (which some still are . . . thanks Kim!). Does this mean the regime is aware their grip on power is slipping?

So why North Korea would do this? Brinkmanship is one thing, but you’d need to be damn sure the South wouldn’t decide to retaliate to pull something this big. If you are going push a dangerous situation to get concessions or an advantageous situation, you better make sure you understand how the opponent will react, your power situation, and what are the consequences of your actions. What if South Korea calls North Korea's war threat bluff and launches a retaliation strike? The North knows it won't last long in a military engagement with the South without major Chinese support and the Chinese are more interested in keeping the peace in the region.

Back in the day, when North Korea might have lasted for more than a few hours in a throw-down, they’d do crazy stuff like attacking the Blue House (home of the Korean president) or blow up airliners in the South. Things have been quiet since the 90's. And by quiet I mean mini-subs, commandos, spies, and minor naval skirmishes. And now this? A sneak attack on a South Korean warship near a South Korean island?

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ravenshield936 said:

If what both you and me have said is correct, then yea Kim's visit is so obviously about the warship they've sunk and he's asking for help.

Seriously this madman is getting so dangerous. I hope things don't escalate, or we'll see something really screwed up gonna start happening in the region.

And there goes economy, oil, and everything.

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Pointblank said:

I suspect the investigation is about convincing China that their nutbar really did this, which to the Chinese mind would require a heavy handed response. I suspect the Chinese have or will shortly tell South Korea and the US to what level of a response they are comfortable with. None of this will be public.

The thing is, there really isn’t much South Korea and the USA (or the rest of the world) can do about any provocation from North Korea as long as China still plays neutral (which isn’t really neutral, given who is always playing dirty). The only thing that can deter North Korea is military action.

Honestly, we’ve tried everything else.

And frankly military action is too big a gamble. Miscalculate North Korea’s response and good bye Seoul.

We also need to consider the possibility that this hasn’t been orchestrated by Kim Jong-Il. I mean, the regime actually apologized—let me repeat that, apologized—to the citizens of North Korea for the effects of the currency reform. I don’t recall too much apologizing while North Koreans were dying of starvation (which some still are . . . thanks Kim!). Does this mean the regime is aware their grip on power is slipping?

So why North Korea would do this? Brinkmanship is one thing, but you’d need to be damn sure the South wouldn’t decide to retaliate to pull something this big. If you are going push a dangerous situation to get concessions or an advantageous situation, you better make sure you understand how the opponent will react, your power situation, and what are the consequences of your actions. What if South Korea calls North Korea's war threat bluff and launches a retaliation strike? The North knows it won't last long in a military engagement with the South without major Chinese support and the Chinese are more interested in keeping the peace in the region.

Back in the day, when North Korea might have lasted for more than a few hours in a throw-down, they’d do crazy stuff like attacking the Blue House (home of the Korean president) or blow up airliners in the South. Things have been quiet since the 90's. And by quiet I mean mini-subs, commandos, spies, and minor naval skirmishes. And now this? A sneak attack on a South Korean warship near a South Korean island?

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South Korean navy holds border anti-sub drills

SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korea's navy staged anti-submarine drills on Thursday in tense waters bordering North Korea amid signs that China, under pressure from regional powers, is reviewing ties with the isolated communist state.
The naval exercise is aimed at better detecting intrusions by North Korean submarines after a team of investigators, including experts from the United States and Sweden, accused the North of firing a torpedo that sank a South Korean warship, killing 46.
The drills, which also come after the South's military upgraded its alert level, are likely to further anger Pyongyang, which has already cuts most ties with Seoul after it sanctioned the hermit state for sinking the Cheonan corvette.
The North has threatened to shut the last road link with the South if Seoul resumes loudspeaker propaganda broadcasts across their heavily armed border. It has warned of war if the South went ahead with sanctions announced this week.
Mounting antagonism between the two Koreas has unnerved investors, worried the bitter rivalry could spill over into conflict.
Most analysts say that neither side is ready to go to war but warn that there could be more skirmishes, especially along their disputed sea border off the west coast.
Traders said the issue continue to hang over the market though it is no longer driving prices down as it did early in the week. The won looked set to end a five-day losing streak as investors saw its recent downturn as overdone.
CHINA ROLE
Washington is looking for ways to avoid the issue collapsing into conflict, with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pressing Beijing to coax its North Korean ally into changing course.
Clinton, who was in Seoul for talks on Wednesday, urged the North to stop threatening its neighbors, saying Washington would review measures to hold Pyongyang's leaders accountable for the sinking of the Cheonan.
Clinton also called on China, which almost single-handedly props up the North Korean government and its destitute economy, to join efforts to pressure the North to change its ways.
U.S. officials traveling with Clinton said China may be ready to discuss how the United Nations should respond to the sinking of the Cheonan, and had shown indications that it was rethinking its ties with Pyongyang.
South Korea will ask the U.N. Security Council as early as next week to take up the issue, its Yonhap news agency said.
Beijing has so far not endorsed the findings of the South Korean investigation, which concluded last week that there was overwhelming evidence the North torpedoed the ship.
But South Korean officials anticipate some form of progress in China's response when Premier Wen Jiabao visits Seoul on Friday for a summit with President Lee Myung-bak.
The two will travel to the South Korean resort island of Jeju on Saturday for a regional summit that also involves Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, where the issue is likely to overshadow discussions on boosting trade.
North Korea's Supreme People's Assembly is scheduled to meet on June 7, two months after the rubberstamp parliament passed constitutional amendments that strengthened leader Kim Jong-il's powers. Experts say a major announcement is likely.

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Finn McCool said:

Bet that has something to do with those "missing" North Korean subs that recently put out to sea.

Perhaps North Korea should be expelled from the World Cup as a consequence? How would that even be done? Hurting their pride is the only punishment short of military action that SK, US and Japan have left.

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