The role of the Economy in national confrontations

Jeff Head

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> MODERATOR COMMENT <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<​

Guys, cut the dispparaging, insulting off the cuff comments. Comments like "backward," "$2 dollar spaghetti tongs," "low tech, cheap prodcuts only." All of these type of comments will only flame emotion and lead to arguements, name calling, and get the thread closed and people suspended.

Some may think that such comments are "smart," "witty," or "snarky," but they tread on thin ice in this forum.

Also, no talk of trading LA for Tawian or anything like that. That is flame bait and will not be tolerated.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>> END MODERATOR COMMENT <<<<<<<<<<<<<<​

This is an interesting thread...but keep it civil and abide by the Rule of the Forum. They are posted in the sticky threads of each forum so there is no excuse for not reading and abiding by them.

Thanks.
 
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Lezt

Junior Member
Being an Engineer who is working in China right now, and had worked in north america; and one whom know quite a few engineers around....

Here is my 2 cents.

A lot of what people say about China making low end products is correct; but on the flip side, China is at pretty much the forefront of technology. Just because China did not have an industrial inertia like the UK which industries are based on turn of the previous century logistics and manufacturing processes, the US which is based on the ww2 war economy, or Japan/Germany which is based on the rebuilt period after ww2.

So Chinese factories can be hyper efficient compared to developed countries just because it is built with a more updated philosophy and technology. A very simple example is, China can build a factory with a 100 tonne crane which is much more efficient than a 50 tonne crane in a developed country which was state of the art when it was built; and that to upgrade that crane would cause interruption in production; so the technology inertia is holding developed countries back.

But on the more technical side, here is a stamping line made by JIER for Ford Motor company to be installed in the US.
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. This production line can produce 15 parts per minute, which is 3 more than the German proposed line for the same tender and at a fraction of the cost - like 50% cheaper.

Another thing is, milling machines, you can readily buy large 5 axis milling machines in China. These milling machines are not easy to make, and are much harder to program. Regardless of it being stolen/assimilated/copied/observed technology, this is still a phenomenal achievement to be able to make these machines. US-Japan had a huge row when Japan sold USSR a few such milling machines:
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Today, only Japan/USA/Germany/China can make 9 axis milling machines;

Another would be high speed trains, yes, China brought a few dozen trains with Bombardier CRH-1, a few dozen bullet train from Japan CRH-2, a few dozen trains from germany CRH-3, a few dozen from French CRH-5 (obviously not good to name a series of trains after 4 for death). All of these had TOT, and with this TOT and some ingenuity, Chinese engineers had combined the technologies into the CRH-380 series. i.e. from high speed trains with 200-250 km/hr, China had pushed these to 300 km/hr service speed right now; with the CRH-380, these train designs will be at 380 km/hr service speed. This is no small feat.

What I am trying to say is, China is a very strange case, yes, on the bottom of the scale, you have really retarded things like fire escape stairs that escapes to nowhere or very cheap and flimsy goods. On the other side of the scale, you do have something that is at the utmost forefront of technology.
 
K

Kvitoya

Banned Idiot
Lezt said:
Being an Engineer who is working in China right now, and had worked in north america; and one whom know quite a few engineers around....

Here is my 2 cents.

A lot of what people say about China making low end products is correct; but on the flip side, China is at pretty much the forefront of technology. Just because China did not have an industrial inertia like the UK which industries are based on turn of the previous century logistics and manufacturing processes, the US which is based on the ww2 war economy, or Japan/Germany which is based on the rebuilt period after ww2.

So Chinese factories can be hyper efficient compared to developed countries just because it is built with a more updated philosophy and technology. A very simple example is, China can build a factory with a 100 tonne crane which is much more efficient than a 50 tonne crane in a developed country which was state of the art when it was built; and that to upgrade that crane would cause interruption in production; so the technology inertia is holding developed countries back.

But on the more technical side, here is a stamping line made by JIER for Ford Motor company to be installed in the US.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. This production line can produce 15 parts per minute, which is 3 more than the German proposed line for the same tender and at a fraction of the cost - like 50% cheaper.

Another thing is, milling machines, you can readily buy large 5 axis milling machines in China. These milling machines are not easy to make, and are much harder to program. Regardless of it being stolen/assimilated/copied/observed technology, this is still a phenomenal achievement to be able to make these machines. US-Japan had a huge row when Japan sold USSR a few such milling machines:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Today, only Japan/USA/Germany/China can make 9 axis milling machines;

Another would be high speed trains, yes, China brought a few dozen trains with Bombardier CRH-1, a few dozen bullet train from Japan CRH-2, a few dozen trains from germany CRH-3, a few dozen from French CRH-5 (obviously not good to name a series of trains after 4 for death). All of these had TOT, and with this TOT and some ingenuity, Chinese engineers had combined the technologies into the CRH-380 series. i.e. from high speed trains with 200-250 km/hr, China had pushed these to 300 km/hr service speed right now; with the CRH-380, these train designs will be at 380 km/hr service speed. This is no small feat.

What I am trying to say is, China is a very strange case, yes, on the bottom of the scale, you have really retarded things like fire escape stairs that escapes to nowhere or very cheap and flimsy goods. On the other side of the scale, you do have something that is at the utmost forefront of technology.
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Are you German, by any chance? Just curious, not obligation to respond. The cost issue is the part that bothers me most. China is a notorious exploiter of child and forced labour which is used to create much of its low overheads, and this, in conjunction with its currency manipulation programme is what is giving it an economic advantage in in the world. As long as the Western democracies tolerate this they will continue to slide relative to the Chinese economy, China will continue to get richer and more efficient, and improve their technology to parity with the West and beyond.
 
SampanViking

SampanViking

The Capitalist
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Kvitoya said:
Are you German, by any chance? Just curious, not obligation to respond. The cost issue is the part that bothers me most. China is a notorious exploiter of child and forced labour which is used to create much of its low overheads, and this, in conjunction with its currency manipulation programme is what is giving it an economic advantage in in the world. As long as the Western democracies tolerate this they will continue to slide relative to the Chinese economy, China will continue to get richer and more efficient, and improve their technology to parity with the West and beyond.
Click to expand...

I am sorry but the basis of your argument is as much nonsense as it is flaimbait. So China is Slave labour + Child Labour + Currency manipulation? Its the same old trolling rubbish dressed up as discourse.
You have already been warned about using such disparaging comments, but have chosen to ignore it. I have no intention of letting an otherwise interesting thread degenerate into the flame war you are clearly seeking and I see no useful purpose in having you on this forum. You are therefore being banned permanently.
 
M

mike_wilde

Banned Idiot
SampanViking said:
I am sorry but the basis of your argument is as much nonsense as it is flaimbait. So China is Slave labour + Child Labour + Currency manipulation? Its the same old trolling rubbish dressed up as discourse.
You have already been warned about using such disparaging comments, but have chosen to ignore it. I have no intention of letting an otherwise interesting thread degenerate into the flame war you are clearly seeking and I see no useful purpose in having you on this forum. You are therefore being banned permanently.
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I hear what you're saying, but the gulags (laojiao) are interesting in terms of economic output - does anyone know if their output contributes to the overall economy? I'm not an economist so wouldn't know what kind of impact they have on the broader economy. Just tracked this down - I remember reading it some time ago - it's from march - BBC report about Li Keqiang's declaration to reform the laojiao, but note it says "any reform will not affect the far bigger system of prison labour camps, estimated to hold millions" where "In the workshops they sit in ranks at tables making small electrical components." If these components are used in exports then that must have a bearing on the cost of production.

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On a broader note, what's more interesting is that depending on how you measure the Chinese economy, some argue it is already the biggest in the world. It depends in whether you're looking at GDP/GDP per capita, PPP etc. As wages rise there (and notwithstanding the laojiao) things must slow down a little, plus there is the impact of the one child policy still to come and the massive property bubble as well (although China is not unique on that score). Can China keep it up? How bad will its next recession be?

In edit - I'm thinking the moderation round here is just too heavy for me, everyone. I tried to start a thread on IR theory, which is massively relevant to China and strategic defence, and was told in seconds that such talk was not really permitted, and reading through this thread a second ago I see someone was banned permanently for what looks like no more than mentioning renminbi manipulation and the forced labour camps, both of which are absolutely central to the rise of the Chinese economy, which is the subject of this thread. I'm off, but hope you all enjoy!

You are Kvitoya and you are both already banned and running a multiple account. Do not try and create further accounts.
 
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Lezt

Junior Member
Kvitoya said:
Are you German, by any chance? Just curious, not obligation to respond. The cost issue is the part that bothers me most. China is a notorious exploiter of child and forced labour which is used to create much of its low overheads, and this, in conjunction with its currency manipulation programme is what is giving it an economic advantage in in the world. As long as the Western democracies tolerate this they will continue to slide relative to the Chinese economy, China will continue to get richer and more efficient, and improve their technology to parity with the West and beyond.
Click to expand...

I am not German, but I do know quite a few German engineers here in BJ.

Here, think about it, if China can have forced child labor to complete state of the art projects; then these children must be prodigies - cream la de cream of the human race. Honestly, you need to understand China's one child philosophy and Chinese parenting culture. Except for the very poor, the intent had always been that Chinese children is over sheltered to the point that they are not allowed to do even house work other than do well in school - as a good education is the "key" to future advancement and prosperity. This is an issue in it's own right, but not consistent with the charge you are putting forward. you cannot judge a country from a few media reports, e.g. do you believe that the US is a nation that forces young girls into forced marriages just because some part of society did it like the church of jesus christ and the later day saints?

And currency manipulation.... honestly, it happens and it is not just limited to China. I honestly dare any economist who can conclusively identify how china is manipulating its currency and show that no other country is doing it. This talk of Chinese currency manipulation really came about when the US force depreciated its currency to stimulate local growth, but was uped one hand by Chinese economists whom had pegged the RMB to the USD, hence the net suffer became the EUR as liquidity drained from europe to the USA, and from the USA to China - the latter leg is what US Economists are bickering about. this is indeed a matter of perspective, but hell, China had not and is not really coming out on top of this right now; with the printing of money in the USA, China is printing money to keep pace so the RMB does not rise - which is your main currency manipulation which the USA did as well. The last time, the USA did something like this, it collapsed the economy of the soviet union.

If you want a very interesting economic discussion, talk about Bitcoins; the defacto way of moving Chinese currency out of China right now.
 
H

hkbc

Junior Member
The premise of all this talk of "blockades" is that some how blocking Chinese exports would cripple the Chinese economy quicker than the those participating in the blockade.

Whilst the balance of payments between the US and China is very much in China's favour (>$300 billion exports ~$125 billion imports) that's not reflected across all of China's trading relationships.

Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and the ASEAN countries would all suffer economically more than China would from cessation of bilateral trade.

Truth is China's trade imbalances exist principally with the USA and select countries in the EU-27, plenty of other economies do very well out of trading with China, thank you!

Basically any such blockade would be little more than a self serving attempt to take out many of the world's fastest growing economies to the benefit of the rich but stagnant western economies. Put that way I wonder how many of China's trading partners are going to sign up? US national interest is not synonymous with everyone's national interest! (Vietnam War anybody?)

This trade argument has happened before; in the middle of the 19th century the British Empire resorted to being drug dealers to fix its balance of trade problem with China i.e. the Opium Wars and the unequal treaties.

I would expect the Chinese central military commission to be well versed in what happened last time and no doubt busy expending efforts to ensure it doesn't happen again!

I am also pretty sure the guys in the Pentagon can do their sums, China is just a bit less of a push over than Iraq, North Korea, Iran, Syria (probably all of them combined!)

Without a good excuse, It's done nothing earth shatteringly wrong, it's a signatory to the CWC and NPT so no sanctimonious BS about nuclear weapons or WMD, it hasn't bombed anyone's embassies in recent memory, it seems to spy on the rest of the world no more or less than any other country :D, how to justify a blockade? Nonetheless, I am sure where there's a will there's a way and some one can dream up of some Human Rights BS to go to war over. The only interesting thing would be who's going to get mugged into joining that "coalition of the willing".
 
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