The next generation of Chinese leader are unveiled.

The WSJ article is surprisingly good, which makes for a refreshing change.

I think that overall, things went as expected, with the only big surprise being how few seats Hu's Youth League faction got in the Standing Committee. I could think of several possible explanations for this:

1) The most obvious one being that Jiang is still massively powerful and influential and managed to get his way. This seems to be the general consensus amongst western commentators, but I find it the least likely.

Jiang might be powerful, but more powerful than the current sitting president of China? I don't think so. If Hu really wanted to put up a fight, I seriously doubt he would not have been able to get more seats. I think it is almost certain that there is far more to this than at first meets the eye.

2) Hu is respecting seniority and letting the oldest and most deserving top leaders take the standing committee seats with an eye on their age, knowing that they will only be able to serve a single term. Hu has also lined up his people to prime positions to take over once this new lot steps down.

By making this concession, I am sure Hu won a great deal of political capital and goodwill that will make it easier for him in the future to get his people into top spots without causing any acrimonious disputes within the party.

3) Hu is playing the long game. He might be more powerful than Jiang, but possibly not by much, and if he went head-to-head with Jiang now, it would likely cost everyone dearly. I am sure Hu is also mindful of his image and legacy and does not make to be tarred by rumors that he does not want to give up power voluntarily.

The last thing Hu wants is a messy transition of power with lots of in-fighting and the inevitable purges and airing of dirty laundry.

Hu is still young and have many years left, whereas Jiang is 86 now and will be over 90 come the next round of leadership shuffles. It is quite possible that Hu does not expect Jiang to be around by then, so by making some concessions now, he is preserving his power and influence to make his move in 5 years time when Jiang is out of the picture.

4) Hu and his faction might have stepped back for the good of the country. By all accounts, the Standing Committee was well balanced between the two main factions during Hu's reign, I can easily see that being similar to if neither the Democrats or Republicans having an outright majority in the House and Senate, with neither side able to get their way and government being able to get important decisions made.

Critics say there wasn't much radical economic reform during Hu's reign, who's to say that was by Hu's choice? It would just be that the well balanced Standing Committee made it a nightmare to get any reforms through.

The decision to cut the standing committee from 9 to 7 members is also a big decision, and it should help to make it easier to reach a consensus. I do not think they would have made such a big change unless something make them thing such a move was both a good idea and necessary.

In exchange for letting the Princelings have a freer hand in power this time, maybe Hu and his factor extracted concessions and promises in return. Such as maybe a rotating basis for who controlled the standing committee.

5) Hu might be more clever and cynical than most might think. It is a difficult time for all the major economies and powers, with many dangers and challenges to come. Perhaps Hu is not optimistic that China would be able to continue to remain relatively untouched by the global financial chaos. Having the rival faction in power when he expects the Chinese economy to maybe suffer a hard landing as a result of America falling off it's fiscal cliff by accident and/or the EU imploding would only strengthen the hand of himself and his faction for the next round of leadership shuffles by pointing the finger and arguing that the princelings dropped the ball.

Now, all of the above is based on the assumption that there is a factional split between the princelings and the youth league.

However, I hold some strong reservations that the political divide in Chinese high politics can be so neatly made and based on such flimsy a basis.

Somehow I doubt all princelings share exactly the same ideological and policy leanings. That would be akin to suggesting all Americans born to rich families would be Republicans while those who from more modest backgrounds would all be Democrats.

As an example in point, Ai Weiwei would have been classed as Princeling if he had went into politics, but I somehow doubt he would have seen eye-to-eye with Jiang or Xi on many issues.

I suspect that there are far more complex and nuanced ideological differences that define what faction one stands on in Chinese politics, and there may well be more than two factions. But I would expect those factions to be based on principles and ideals rather than merely on upbringing and background as the world media has currently crudely drawn it.

What those factions are and what they believe in and stand/fight for are the true questions that I want answered and discussed. But, because of a combination of the veil of secrecy surrounding Chinese politics, and the enforced habit of Chinese politicians to not stand out and keep their true colors hidden, no-one outside of the inner circle of the CCP can really say for sure. Hell, maybe not even they can tell friend from foe most of the time.

It's kinda awkward when they were introducing party members as comrade, when you realize Tongzi is slang for gay LOL.

In4ser said:

It's kinda awkward when they were introducing party members as comrade, when you realize Tongzi is slang for gay LOL.

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Maybe they secretly are. They reduce the numbers for a reason, ya know. The fewer the more intimate

I suspect that the key to understanding differences in the precise mode of handover in 2012 to that of 2002 is more to do with external factors than internal.

1) Having a separation between CIC and President is an unnecessary dilution, which can be a weakness in times of heightened tensions. At such times the President needs to be able to speak not only with authority, but also be recognised as having the confidence of senior officers. Hu's surrender of CIC is I believe a recognition of these facts and a desire not to bind the hands of his successor when they may well need maximum movement.
Xi is obviously closer to the military and will I believe take a harder stance on regional disputes and that the stance will be seen as far more credible.

2) China's standing in the world has grown exponentially in the last ten years and its leaders have gained considerably more international recognition. This means that a significant role will now be possible on the International stage for former leaders, especially the former leaders seen as primarily responsible for the increased standing.
Hu and Wen proved a formidable deal making team around the world and there is no good reason why this could not continue in the form of roving development/good will ambassadors. Such figures are also useful to discuss dispute resolution albeit in an informal capacity. They are former leaders and therefore fully aware of the strategic situation but also able to discuss matters beyond the official line without being seen to commit the government to any change in position.

It is now a very different world to that of ten years ago and so the roles of leaders and ex leaders will need to adapt accordingly.

Jiang is now a very old man and many of the new Government are also close to retirement. If this old guard can successfully steer the ship of state for a few years through particularly choppy waters, they will have performed a vital final service.

nugroho said:

Yes, I agree.
But there is something strange.
How can a economist lawyer Li keqiang be a prime minister,( it had been always an engineer's job ) ?
Remember Hu, Wen, Xi are engineer.

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I think it has to do with his ability as a diplomat to communicate with foreign dignitaries. He understands the nature of economy and law to talk to western reporters in a more clean definition.

In4ser said:

It's kinda awkward when they were introducing party members as comrade, when you realize Tongzi is slang for gay LOL.

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But on CCTV I heard Xi pronounced the word "comrade" in English when introducing the new members.

Equation said:

But on CCTV I heard Xi pronounced the word "comrade" in English when introducing the new members.

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Also the term "comrade" in Chinese means what it means from the very beginning, someone else high-jacked term.

Is it just personality people are judging between the Jiang and Hu factions because I don't see and don't expect much of a difference on policy in all aspects. Yes Jiang was known for favoring cities like Shanghai but someone has to get rich first. The problem is with the geography where China is surrounded by underdeveloped countries. So the further away you are from the ocean sea lanes of international trade, the less you're going to benefit. So naturally wealth is going to have to spread from the coast inward.

I can see how Xi probably learned from Jiang about handling other countries. Bill Clinton wrote in his book that his biggest regret from his Presidency was that he couldn't strike a cord with Jiang Zemin like he did with other foreign leaders. Hindsight is 20/20. Well maybe that was because all he did when he was running for President was attack China. Of course people that find their popularity more important only see the now and China wasn't in the same position as when Bill Clinton thought about it when he wrote his memoirs in his book. So Xi it seems despite rumors of illness or political turmoil as reported by the media of his recent disappearance was in fact snubbing Hillary Clinton on a previously scheduled meeting. One article I read said that it was to deny Hillary a name and number in her rolodex as she leaves public service and enters the private sector probably leading some NGO where contacts and associations will be important.

Interesting theory, but I think it's a little unlikely.

Xi did not just miss his appointment with Hillary, he missed a whole string of them before and after.

The whole point of a snub is to make the recipient aware that he/she is being snubbed. If the person you wanted to snub is not even aware that you were trying to snub them, then all you have managed to do is snub yourself.

It also seems like a very petty thing to do to snub Hillary for some annoyance her husband might have caused to Jiang over a decade ago. If Xi wanted to snub Hillary, it would have been for the way she was going out of her way to make trouble for China in the SCS over disputed islands. But going back to my first point, if the intention really was to snub Hillary, then Xi would have left little doubt about doing so, and would have just cancelled her appointment and met everyone else as scheduled.

I don't think the snub against Hillary was because of Bill. Hillary has been more vicious than her husband towards China ever since she was First Lady. I mentioned before somewhere that I read that Obama had sent a special envoy that the Chinese respected to China in May/June because I guess he didn't want rhetoric from the Presidential election if he won to be interpreted as a more aggressive policy against China. One of the points supposedly brought up was Hillary and it was conveyed that she was exercising her own agenda apart from the President. Obama supposedly didn't do anything because she had a higher popularity than him and she was leaving office anyway. If you look back at the Copenhagen Summit which supposedly started the downward turn in Sino-US relations... it was because Hillary appointed Todd Stern as the US representation to which before the summit even started, it was clear Stern was already trying to paint China as the villian setting the mood. There Hu Jintao snubbed Obama by sending a lower level official to meet with him which I'd say was bigger than Hilary getting snubbed.