The Kashmir conflict 2025.

tamsen_ikard said:

China's stealth fighter jet count is still much lower than US. 800 F-35/F-22 vs 350 J-20 is still lopsided against China. When you combine that with F-35 numbers from Korea, Japan and Australia it becomes even more difficult.

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Three fundamental problems in this sentence.

1. F-22 is pretty much useless with its range against China. they need air tankers. plus F-22 contain outdated electronics and avionics. same range issue with F-35.. you need air tankers for any operations against PLAAF. and we all know that how vulnerable big aircrafts are in this BVR era.

2. how on earth USA can divert its entire military strength in south China sea. there is limitations how many assets US can deploy against China.

3. recent Tariffs war changed the entire game.. not even a single ally was with USA against China. not even Japan. if they gang up in military confrontation(which is highly doubtful now) it will be WW3.. then so many factors comes into play.

looks like you don't read much.. a lot things have changed in past few years.

Note- i m strictly talking about south China sea and first/second island chain. this is where China has upper hand.

Russia had a stockpile of around four thousand cruise and ballistic missiles prior to the conflict in Ukraine. It burned through the vast majority of it in a year or so, and Ukraine was able to keep fighting.
It wasn’t until the full mobilization of Russian economy were they able to produce more but they are still nowhere close to pre war levels.

India has, at best, a quarter of what Russia has, and will have no way to replenish it as quickly either. Not saying India’s missiles cannot cause damage, they very well can. But India will have to use a significant chunk of their missiles to do just that, and be practically defenseless against China. Not only that, Pakistan is bound to get a stronger AD package in the future and probably invest heavily in ECM to disrupt navigation of Indian missiles.
One thing PAF should also invest in is the ability to shoot down missiles utilizing fighter aircraft. Unsure if current AAMs are to up to the task but may be worth a shot

Also, regarding Pakistan’s drones..


Very likely Pakistan has a good idea of India’s SAM network now.

From forum sources the F-16 took off as well but due to restrictions from the U.S. they were unfortunately unable to fire across the border. They were there to act as a line of defense in case someone pulled an Abinandan and crossed into Pakistan’s side. Unfortunately PL-15 made too big of a deterrent.

They still performed well intercepting Indian loitering munitions and missiles on the following day.

sunnymaxi said:

Three fundamental problems in this sentence.

1. F-22 is pretty much useless with its range against China. they need air tankers. plus F-22 contain outdated electronics and avionics. same range issue with F-35.. you need air tankers for any operations against PLAAF. and we all know that how vulnerable big aircrafts are in this BVR era.

2. how on earth USA can divert its entire military strength in south China sea. there is limitations how many assets US can deploy against China.

3. recent Tariffs war changed the entire game.. not even a single ally was with USA against China. not even Japan. if they gang up in military confrontation(which is highly doubtful now) it will be WW3.. then so many factors comes into play.

looks like you don't read much.. a lot things have changed in past few years.

Note- i m strictly talking about south China sea and first/second island chain. this is where China has upper hand.

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When you look at history of past world wars and european wars between great powers, you will understand the lengths Greats Powers can go to preserve their dominance. Its actually naive to think US will only bring a certain percentage of its force to a fight against China. If US and China fights, it will be world war 3.

That means US will try to use every single leverage it has anywhere to try to bring China down. So, not just active force US has, I expect US to bring back retired F-15, F-16 whatever planes US has in its boneyard.

I expect US to force its European allies to fight as well and I expect some fanatic countries like Poland and UK to join for sure. The ones that dont join, I atleast I expect US to bring all the F-35s, F-16s whatever they have in their arsenal and supply to US.

US for example forced Pakistan to supply artillery to Ukraine. So, in a world war 3 which is much more existential, US might ask Saudis to supply F-15 to US to make up losses.

We need to understand the comprehensive hold US and the western empire has on the world. Every country dependent on US for buying arms or protection is a vassal and US will use that influence during the war against China.

Can China's reserve of older J-7, J-6 compare against 3000 F-15/F-16 coming back from retirement or supplied by its vassals? US has much bigger pool of retired fighter jet pilots than China. So, they can rapidly expand their air force with retired pilots.

Yes, China has more manufacturing capacity now. But US has comprehensive dominance on many countries and it will use that dominance to bring in more supplies and forces. China may not be able to match that reserve force with manufacturing new planes alone.

China is still too weak against US and it comprehensive empire.

crazyinsane105 said:

One thing PAF should also invest in is the ability to shoot down missiles utilizing fighter aircraft. Unsure if current AAMs are to up to the task but may be worth a shot

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How is this possible given their already disadvantaged smaller fleet size, wouldn't they be preoccupied with other missions?

tamsen_ikard said:

When you look at history of past world wars and european wars between great powers, you will understand the lengths Greats Powers can go to preserve their dominance. Its actually naive to think US will only bring a certain percentage of its force to a fight against China. If US and China fights, it will be world war 3.

That means US will try to use every single leverage it has anywhere to try to bring China down. So, not just active force US has, I expect US to bring back retired F-15, F-16 whatever planes US has in its boneyard.

I expect US to force its European allies to fight as well and I expect some fanatic countries like Poland and UK to join for sure. The ones that dont join, I atleast I expect US to bring all the F-35s, F-16s whatever they have in their arsenal and supply to US.

US for example forced Pakistan to supply artillery to Ukraine. So, in a world war 3 which is much more existential, US might ask Saudis to supply F-15 to US to make up losses.

We need to understand the comprehensive hold US and the western empire has on the world. Every country dependent on US for buying arms or protection is a vassal and US will use that influence during the war against China.

Can China's reserve of older J-7, J-6 compare against 3000 F-15/F-16 coming back from retirement or supplied by its vassals? US has much bigger pool of retired fighter jet pilots than China. So, they can rapidly expand their air force with retired pilots.

Yes, China has more manufacturing capacity now. But US has comprehensive dominance on many countries and it will use that dominance to bring in more supplies and forces. China may not be able to match that reserve force with manufacturing new planes alone.

China is still too weak against US and it comprehensive empire.

Click to expand...

so many mistakes in this post.

1. you are comparing modern warfare with 20th century warfare. logistics and complexity of modern equipment is so challenging that you can't repeat WW2 here.

what is the availability rate of F-35 ??

what is the availability rate of US SSN fleet ?? barely 35 submarines are active

The availability rate for the F-15 aircraft is a complex issue, with different versions having varying rates. The F-15D had a 63% availability rate, while the F-15C had a 52.86% availability rate, and the F-15EX had a high 83.13% availability rate.

USA just cannot bring back 3000 F-15/F-16 from retirement with ease. where is the money , logistics and industrial base ??? bro its not a joke

most of the USA equipment are from cold war era. old and rusty. have you ever seen the US naval ships ???

China's equipment availability rate is much higher than USA, majority of their weapons produced in last 20 years. China could place 2000+ heavy fighter jets right now if you really talk about numbers not even counting J-7/J-6

J-11+J-10+JH-7+J-8 and all old flankers plus 350-400 J-16 ..
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you said, China has more manufacturing. but the fact is, China's industrial output is bigger than USA+EU combined. they control most of the critical minerals and metals include rare earth.

yeah US has significant advantage here, number of allies. but in WW3, Russia will be on China side. resource and weapons

i still consider USA superpower but they are not the same country anymore.. in home turf China can toe to toe with USA given any warfare like air force , navy or missiles.

tamsen_ikard said:

China is still too weak against US and it comprehensive empire.

Click to expand...

disagreed.

China is weak only if they try to fight USA outside their comfort zone. because they don't have military bases around the world.

China is the second most powerful country in the world. China has clearly home advantage. in SCS and first/second island Chain PLA can easily outmatch USA. Let USA bring Japan/Korea and few more countries. i can assure you, this time we will not spare.

sunnymaxi said:

so many mistakes in this post.

1. you are comparing modern warfare with 20th century warfare. logistics and complexity of modern equipment is so challenging that you can't repeat WW2 here.

what is the availability rate of F-35 ??

what is the availability rate of US SSN fleet ?? barely 35 submarines are active

The availability rate for the F-15 aircraft is a complex issue, with different versions having varying rates. The F-15D had a 63% availability rate, while the F-15C had a 52.86% availability rate, and the F-15EX had a high 83.13% availability rate.

USA just cannot bring back 3000 F-15/F-16 from retirement with ease. where is the money , logistics and industrial base ??? bro its not a joke

most of the USA equipment are from cold war era. old and rusty. have you ever seen the US naval ships ???

China's equipment availability rate is much higher than USA, majority of their weapons produced in last 20 years. China could place 2000+ heavy fighter jets right now if you really talk about numbers not even counting J-7/J-6

J-11+J-10+JH-7+J-8 and all old flankers plus 350-400 J-16 ..
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
you said, China has more manufacturing. but the fact is, China's industrial output is bigger than USA+EU combined. they control most of the critical minerals and metals include rare earth.

yeah US has significant advantage here, number of allies. but in WW3, Russia will be on China side. resource and weapons

i still consider USA superpower but they are not the same country anymore.. in home turf China can toe to toe with USA given any warfare like air force , navy or missiles.

disagreed.

China is weak only if they try to fight USA outside their comfort zone. because they don't have military bases around the world.

China is the second most powerful country in the world. China has clearly home advantage. in SCS and first/second island Chain PLA can easily outmatch USA. Let USA bring Japan/Korea and few more countries. i can assure you, this time we will not spare.

Click to expand...

I do have to agree with the fact that China is still quite outmatched outside of the SCS and generally the first island chain. Hopefully China's long term plan for the next decade would be establishing a great presence both militarily and economically globally especially in the Middle East and South America. Airfields and large naval ports in the Middle East, Africa and South America should do enough to balance the playing field globally and allow China to threaten CONUS like how US does to China via the first island chain. Definitely would put a stop to US's ambitions with Taiwan IMO, can't imagine them caring too much about Taiwan when the Chinese are at their doorstep.

PS: Pardon me for being too hopeful but I do wish to see American reactions when Chinese ELINT aircraft and carrier strike groups buzz the US coastlines from bases in South America. Preferably within the next decade

tamsen_ikard said:

When you look at history of past world wars and european wars between great powers, you will understand the lengths Greats Powers can go to preserve their dominance. Its actually naive to think US will only bring a certain percentage of its force to a fight against China. If US and China fights, it will be world war 3.

That means US will try to use every single leverage it has anywhere to try to bring China down. So, not just active force US has, I expect US to bring back retired F-15, F-16 whatever planes US has in its boneyard.

I expect US to force its European allies to fight as well and I expect some fanatic countries like Poland and UK to join for sure. The ones that dont join, I atleast I expect US to bring all the F-35s, F-16s whatever they have in their arsenal and supply to US.

US for example forced Pakistan to supply artillery to Ukraine. So, in a world war 3 which is much more existential, US might ask Saudis to supply F-15 to US to make up losses.

We need to understand the comprehensive hold US and the western empire has on the world. Every country dependent on US for buying arms or protection is a vassal and US will use that influence during the war against China.

Can China's reserve of older J-7, J-6 compare against 3000 F-15/F-16 coming back from retirement or supplied by its vassals? US has much bigger pool of retired fighter jet pilots than China. So, they can rapidly expand their air force with retired pilots.

Yes, China has more manufacturing capacity now. But US has comprehensive dominance on many countries and it will use that dominance to bring in more supplies and forces. China may not be able to match that reserve force with manufacturing new planes alone.

China is still too weak against US and it comprehensive empire.

Click to expand...

Are you done blabbering nonsense about a fantasy world in which nuclear weapons don't exist?

Please do yourself a favor and avoid appearing like a complete fool by first understanding the most important rule about military operations: tyranny of distance. A US-European force would need a 8 fold advantage in quantity to defeat China in East Asia.

sunnymaxi said:

so many mistakes in this post.

1. you are comparing modern warfare with 20th century warfare. logistics and complexity of modern equipment is so challenging that you can't repeat WW2 here.

what is the availability rate of F-35 ??

what is the availability rate of US SSN fleet ?? barely 35 submarines are active

The availability rate for the F-15 aircraft is a complex issue, with different versions having varying rates. The F-15D had a 63% availability rate, while the F-15C had a 52.86% availability rate, and the F-15EX had a high 83.13% availability rate.

USA just cannot bring back 3000 F-15/F-16 from retirement with ease. where is the money , logistics and industrial base ??? bro its not a joke

most of the USA equipment are from cold war era. old and rusty. have you ever seen the US naval ships ???

China's equipment availability rate is much higher than USA, majority of their weapons produced in last 20 years. China could place 2000+ heavy fighter jets right now if you really talk about numbers not even counting J-7/J-6

J-11+J-10+JH-7+J-8 and all old flankers plus 350-400 J-16 ..
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
you said, China has more manufacturing. but the fact is, China's industrial output is bigger than USA+EU combined. they control most of the critical minerals and metals include rare earth.

yeah US has significant advantage here, number of allies. but in WW3, Russia will be on China side. resource and weapons

i still consider USA superpower but they are not the same country anymore.. in home turf China can toe to toe with USA given any warfare like air force , navy or missiles.

disagreed.

China is weak only if they try to fight USA outside their comfort zone. because they don't have military bases around the world.

China is the second most powerful country in the world. China has clearly home advantage. in SCS and first/second island Chain PLA can easily outmatch USA. Let USA bring Japan/Korea and few more countries. i can assure you, this time we will not spare.

Click to expand...

Availability of a particular weapon is dependent on many factors including as you said availability of funding, parts and most important of all political will. If you look at the weapons Ukraine had available before 2022 invasion, pretty much everything was mothballed due to lack of spare parts, maintenance and funds. But the moment war started Ukraine started to bring online retired planes, tanks, missiles and everything. Ukraine probably brought more s-300 and Su-27 than they had before the war and also made up for losses. This is what war does to countries, it brings all the comprehensive national capabilities.

If US and China fight a world war 3, funding will not be an issue at all, as US can easily spend 50% of GDP in defense like they did in the past. They can also print money with ease. US govt can enact defense production laws that can force companies to produce more spare parts, radars and other equipment. Problems that seems intractable now completely melts away when war starts.

Will it take time to bring back these planes? Sure, producing and servicing old planes will take time, but it will be much faster and easier to bring old planes back and even upgrade them with new radars than it is to build a new plane from scratch.

Moreover, China may have a lot of manufacturing capability but that manufacturing is concentrated on primary industry like production of steel and low grade consumer industry of making plastics, shoes and such. When it comes to production of sophisiticated equipment such as Jet engines, Planes, Chips and other sophisticated equipment, US, europe and its asian allies is far ahead. In a war, sure China can produce thousands of low grade tanks for example, but can it produce thousands of highly sophisticated Fighter jet with advanced materials, thermal imaging and so on? I don't think so, they simply lack the industry to produce the parts in that level of quantity. US and Europe has the aerospace industry to produce a lot more.

People don't really understand how extreme and comprehensive the power of US and allies are. They have been dominating industries for centuries and those years of dominance add up and create advantages that are not easy to overcome.

China and Russia will obviously be formidable, and I expect China to slowly become more dominant and powerful than US, but time is not there yet. Maybe 10 years from now, China will have more aerospace, material and chip capacity than US. But as of right now, China is still 80% low value and 20% high value manufacturing country. US and Europe is like 90% high value in their manufacturing industry.