The Kashmir conflict 2025.

tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
Despite the air battle being very sophisticated I have an unpleasant feeling that neither ground force can last long in the Ukrainian War.
Both ground forces are terrible and appearently both India and pakistan have only a few days of ammunition. There is a reason why all Indo-Pak wars only last few days due to lack of ammunition. They are heavily import dependent. Ukraine has the soviet legacy, otherwize Russia would have wiped them out in a few days due to lack of ammunition and supplies.
 
Both ground forces are terrible and appearently both India and pakistan have only a few days of ammunition. There is a reason why all Indo-Pak wars only last few days due to lack of ammunition. They are heavily import dependent. Ukraine has the soviet legacy, otherwize Russia would have wiped them out in a few days due to lack of ammunition and supplies.
Doesn't India at least have domestic production facilities for shells and ammunition? You'd think with an $80 billion defense budget at least enough of it will be left after the corruption and kickbacks to at supply the army with basic munitions and war materiel.
 

Neurosmith

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't know which system is deployed in Karachi but there were so many successful interceptions over Karachi yesterday.

There are rumors and photos of the HQ-9s intercepting a S-400 missile as well as Pakistani claims that HQ-9s took down Rafales (the latter should be taken with a grain of salt).

That said, the videos you posted seem to show AA artillery rather than SAMs.
 

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
The HQ-9 is quite an expensive system, which is demonstrated by Pakistan purchasing only one HQ-9P battery for its army since 2021. There might be even fewer HQ-9BE in service with the PAF. There is simply no way for Pakistan to defend all of its main military infrasctructure using the HQ-9 series; even if the HQ-9 system was present at those airbases during India's attack, the defending forces might have reserved the HQ-9 for missiles targeting highly-critical parts of the airbase whilst letting other missiles through. For the record, this is allegedly what happened during Iran's attack on Nevatim Air Base in October 2024.

All of this is to say that the biggest weakness of Pakistan's HQ-9P/BE network is numbers. Even if the existing launchers expended all of their rounds with a 100% hit rate, Indian missiles still would've made their way to their targets.

You can assess a system's effectiveness only if you have the target hit rate (i.e. # of successful hits / # of launched missiles), not because an area supposedly defended by the said system managed to get hit.

Pakistan can improve this situation by purchasing less-expensive alternatives such as the HQ-22/FK-3, although I'm not sure just how much cheaper those systems would be. The up-ranged HQ-16FE is also supposedly in Pakistani service but there is no photographic evidence of that, plus I'd expect the number of such systems to be very small.
Most of the things getting lobbed at Pakistan is within the envelope for HQ-17 interception (which Pakistan has), HQ-9 seems overkill for drones and cruise missiles.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
The Noor Khan explosion WAS massive. Even Pakistanis aren't denying that. The last time an AFB was targeted was back in 1971. It is very much a new thing. Normal or not, we shall see.
Was it even on the base? The video you showed was just some explosion somewhere. The next day, the base was fully operational; the aircraft Indians claimed to have damaged/destroyed took off. Chinese satellite imagery showed minimal damage.
CNN said Pakistan claimed India begged America. Pakistan also claimed they have captured an Indian pilot. People claim things. For the rest of it, guess you will have to take it up with NYT.
Yeah, you're missing the biggest disinformation spreader on the list, which is India. I can't even list all the provable nonsense coming out of India. Do you even want me to?
Fair enough. In my defense I did say I was leaning towards believing it, not completely believed it.
Why leaning towards it? LOL If you like track record, India has the worst track record for honesty.
Regarding the specific SAAB, it may have been something else, it many been nothing at all. But it's nearly certain that with dozen+ AFBs being targeted, at least a few aircraft were damaged/destroyed.
Not really. Aircraft occupy a very small percentage of surface area of an air base. They typically need to be precision-targeted.
We are unlikely to ever see any proof of that in any way,
You got that right, with India's media telling everyone the no Rafales were down and Chinese JF-17/PL-15 orders were being cancelled.
but saying absolutely nothing happened doesn't pass the smell test. I am not talking about you, but many others are saying that.
Saying that there's no evidence but you lean towards believing it because it benefits an Indian narrative doesn't pass the smell test.
 

Gloire_bb

Major
Registered Member
AESA radars have LPI mode so it is not too far fetched for PL-15’s radar to operate in LPI as well. However, when the missile goes pitbull the target’s pilot has just a few seconds to respond anyway. Might not even matter.
...but AESA seeker can also see much further and scan that volume much faster (provided there's more than one ray).
Plus, of course, last ditch defenses.
 

doggydogdo

Junior Member
Registered Member
Not sure how the FK-3 would integrate well with Pakistan's legacy FM-90 and SPADA 2000 systems, but generally-speaking it would help with logistics and interoperability if Pakistan keep purchasing SAMs from China.

Interestingly the HQ-22 is speculated to have been adopted by the PLA because the HQ-9 was too expensive to be deployed in huge numbers. If China is having trouble buying the HQ-9 in bulk, then one could only imagine the strain that the system would have on Pakistan's budget.
HQ-9B cost around 5 million RMB per missile which is around 700k USD, the smaller version cost even less. PLA definitely has no problem deploying them
 

TaskDakota

New Member
Registered Member
I don't know which system is deployed in Karachi but there were so many successful interceptions over Karachi yesterday.

To my knowledge HQ-9 is deployed around Malir Cantt area. I presume that Karachi (Possibly Jinnah airport or Faisal base) was also targeted by missiles but all were intercepted which is an exception compared to most of the other airbases that were targeted. Hence, I'm inclined to believe this was a problem of numbers as @Neurosmith has pointed out.

That said one would expect some missile debris to be found from the ensuing interceptions, so I'm on the fence on it.
 
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