Taiwanese president declares Taiwan must seek independence

eecsmaster said:

China is not innocent in this context. After all, it takes two to tango. However, PRC's actions have been very consistant with their announced political objective, not so for Chen.

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So what you're saying is, because the PRC has displayed unreasonable behaviour in the past it's ok to continue being like that? That is ludicrous. Maybe the PRC needs to change its attitude to facilitate negotiation, rather than insisting the other side conforms to its requirements.

chen isnt the only one who has to appeal to constituency. Hu jintao and Wen jiabao also has to placate the public in mainland. China has always been ruled by autocrates, but even the emperors during the imperial era has to 'appear' to rule according to people's will.

therefore, the communists have to say things like that to appear tough to the public. its no difference from bush standing in front of congress and saying he is going to kick some al-qaida asses.

Most of the Chinese will hope he is serious this time, he means what he says.

The people are waiting for the real big show, but less interested in playing vocal games anymore today. China has all the nuts and bolts to do some nasty things,they've spent quite a bit in past years and want to see missiles launching with real warheads in real combats.

The mode has changed...

Ludicrous? Or maybe your poli-sci skills need a bit of retouching. First of all, how can you define anything as unreasonable in the given context? PRC's rhetorics are very consistant: territorial integrity above all. You can't say the same for Chen.

In polisci courses, and I assume you've taken a few because you are clearly not in the engineering, it is stressed that a key note of stability is a well expressed goal. If you strip away all that naive good and bad trash, you would notice that political stability in the straits is best served with the status quo.

Now who's actively trying to move the status quo?

FuManChu said:

And if the KMT doesn't win? Another four years of bad Sino-Taiwanese relations because Beijing still wants to sulk in the corner? That's not good for peace. If the Americans can bite down on their pride the Chinese government can too.

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With the current public finance status continuing, it might not be the case no matter which party will win the election. According to some estimation from KMT party, the increasing accumulation of public deficit after DPP party took power 7 years ago is around NT$1,200,000,000,000 (around US$36,400,000,000, with 33US$/NT$.) For the last couple of years, if deducting its trade surplus of around US$40~US$50 billion from China per annum, Taiwan would have real big problems. For example, 2005 Taiwan had US$7 billion trade surplus, but China alone contributed US$58 billion. And 2006, Taiwan's surplus with China narrowed to US$38 billion.

Some people are worrying the above mentioned trade surplus will narrow. After China increases its commercial cooperation with global MNCs in R&D, global marketing activities and etc, China will cut its importation of components and machinery from Taiwan by buying similar products locally.

People might consider Chen's remarks as election language because it is DPP's strategy for propaganda. They intend to let people, especially for foreigners, think so.

For those who can read Chinese can use google to search with '潘興飛彈' (Pershing missile) and 'Yoshiki Hidaka' and read the article comes up. It' s on a local newspaper, LibertyTime, April 2nd, 2005. It's an article by a Mr. Peng suggesting that one way of deterring China is to persuade US selling its Pershing missile to Taiwan as a preemptive weaponry against China. The article also said 'US authority implied' that Taiwan could bomb the three gorges dam as retaliation for being attacked. The Mr. Peng is not a no-body, he was an central government official when published this article. It may sound crazy and stupid. But those hard-core secessionist, they really seek an opportunity of military confrontation between the Straits. Because they believe the confrontation will stir the hate toward China and sum up the will to be against foreign enemy. It is My deepest fear that the military confrontation might be inevitable because of purposely manipulation and cooking by people both inside and outside of Taiwan.

eecsmaster said:

Ludicrous? Or maybe your poli-sci skills need a bit of retouching. First of all, how can you define anything as unreasonable in the given context? PRC's rhetorics are very consistant: territorial integrity above all. You can't say the same for Chen.

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Why do you focus on rhetoric? Words are meaningless. Look at the facts as I've said already:

Chinese missile/military asset build-up directed at Taiwan
Anti-Secession Act
Opposition to Taiwan being a member of global organisations
Opposition to Taiwan signing trade deals with other countries
Opposition to Taiwan even buying air-to-air missiles and spare parts
Opposition to Taiwanese political leaders visiting other countries
Deliberately trying to marginalise Taiwan diplomatically and economically in the international sense

The list goes on. China's actions are far more unreasonable than anything Taiwan has done. It attempts to directly hurt Taiwan and make its life difficult, maybe in the hope that if it inflicts enough pain and suffering Taiwan will come begging. Whether that is what Chinese leaders really think or not, what China does to Taiwan day-after-day cannot be defended.

If you strip away all that naive good and bad trash, you would notice that political stability in the straits is best served with the status quo.

Now who's actively trying to move the status quo?

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China has been moving the status quo for years with its military build-up and diplomatic & economic, anti-Tawainese campaigns!

fishhead said:

Most of the Chinese will hope he is serious this time, he means what he says.

The people are waiting for the real big show, but less interested in playing vocal games anymore today. China has all the nuts and bolts to do some nasty things,they've spent quite a bit in past years and want to see missiles launching with real warheads in real combats.

The mode has changed...

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I hope you are wrong. People thinking this way have usually never experienced the true nature of war or its results, and particularly are not thinking that such results could ever impact them. In a real shooting war they may find that they are horribly mistaken.

No one should want or be eager for war just because they have spent the money on all those "neat toys" and now want to see them used. Their best use is to be a deterrent to others so they never have to be used.

That's because it is a deadly game where real people, with real children and interests die horribly...on both sides. I pray it can be avoided and that it occurs to the satisfaction of the people themselves (not the politicians or rulers) and to the beneift of their prosperity and personal freedom, because, as I say, I honestly believe the latter (personal freedom) begats the former (prosperity).

Jeff Head said:

I hope you are wrong. People thinking this way have usually never experienced the true nature of war or its results, and particularly are not thinking that such results could ever impact them. In a real shooting war they may find that they are horribly mistaken.

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I hope he's wrong too, but there is a growing sense of confidence - or maybe I should say "over-confidence" - that China can take Taiwan and the US on whenever it wants. Or that the US would never dare to defend Taiwan against China, which is just as dangerous.

Jeff Head said:

I hope you are wrong. People thinking this way have usually never experienced the true nature of war or its results, and particularly are not thinking that such results could ever impact them. In a real shooting war they may find that they are horribly mistaken.

No one should want or be eager for war just because they have spent the money on all those "neat toys" and now want to see them used. Their best use is to be a deterrent to others so they never have to be used.

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Let's not argue which is right nor wrong. I will summerize the Chinese mode in 3 sentences:

10 years ago it's shock and rhetoric

5 years ago people are enranged

Today it's very very calm, and confident, nobody says much but the whole country are gearing up for the war....

Stock markets wobble, Greenspan warns of recession and suddenly up springs Chen using the "I" word.

Maybe Chen is trying to use economic blackmail of some sort, by trying to claim he can influence global markets or something. Either way hw will have mightily p'd off Washington, who would rather things stay calm right now.