Taiwan Military News Thread

[Deleted member 675]

Are there any indications that the U.S. may be working on a conventional sub design for export?

It appears the American plan is for Electric Boat (or another firm/as well as other firms) to build the submarines. Help could be obtained privately from other countries, but at the moment it does not appear they would build the submarines themselves.

The submarine study is designed to make the US give some hard information on what is going to happen with the construction and what exactly what Taiwan would be buying. Prices for the 8 SSKs have varied wildly, and there aren't any firm details on what their capabilities would be. Taiwan can't be expected to dump $12 billion on America's lap with no guarantees. If it can't or won't give this basic information, Taiwan can't be expected to give a larger chunk of money.

If the report is helpful (and a planned visit to the US by legislators to see the facilities, etc that would build the submarines goes well) then more money may well be approved to make the project a reality. Doubtless we will see in the coming months.

 

[Violet Oboe]

Don't want to play the ´illusion buster´here but the Department of State seems to be more in touch with reality this time.

Sino-American trade, already the number two commercial relationship of the US behind Canada, recently grew to a cool 1 bn $ per day in May '07 and the Peoples Bank of China holds currently a hefty half a trillion $ in US treasuries.:coffee:

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Violet Oboe..you know the rules>>>> No politics!

 

[Norfolk]

Don't want to play the ´illusion buster´here but the Department of State seems to be more in touch with reality this time.

Sino-American trade, already the number two commercial relationship of the US behind Canada, recently grew to a cool 1 bn $ per day in May '07 and the Peoples Bank of China holds currently a hefty half a trillion $ in US treasuries.:coffee:

In comparison to this volume of ´wheeling and dealing´everything regarding Taiwan whether defense deals or civilian investment and trade is simply ´small beer´.

Sadly, there seems to be quite some truth to that. Although I suspect that, given the transfer from the U.S. of a worthwhile design as well as critical technologies, Taiwan's own shipbuilding industry might be well then be able to build new subs themselves, it probably just isn't going to happen. Not unless something dramatic really causes Washington to become sufficiently unhappy with China to actually provide Taiwan with either subs or the means to build subs themselves, and at a price Taiwan can handle. Given the economic, financial, and political realities involved, that could really take some doing. Although, as FuManChu has pointed out, the U.S. has approved sending AMRAAMS to Taiwan, and this will not make China happy one bit.

 

[Clouded Leopard]

Are there any indications that the U.S. may be working on a conventional sub design for export?

If they are making any, it would be for Taiwan and Taiwan only. US has never exported a sub abroad before (and doesn't really want to either.)

Taiwan seems to be quite limited in its options for buying subs since the Europeans do not seem willing to displease China. Perhaps Australia or even...wait for it...Japan, may be willing to design or even build new subs for Taiwan?

European nations would be Taiwan's best bet and choice, but not even the Dutch are willing to sell anymore, and not France either.

Australia, no.

Japan, could if they would only be willing to sell - but they're still a bit too peacenik and not willing.

 

[Deleted member 675]

If they are making any, it would be for Taiwan and Taiwan only. US has never exported a sub abroad before (and doesn't really want to either.)

That's why the quotes are high, as it would be a limited production run - so costs would have to be recouped through a higher price-tag per unit built.

Norfolk, on the F-16 delay - you've forgotten the recent UN referendum. I would suggest that is the greatest source of obstruction to the sale being completed. It would also explain why the US was ready to give it the go-ahead until recently.

 

[Norfolk]

Thanks FuManChu, I hadn't even been aware of any UN referendum. That fact does help to explain some of the sudden hesitation in the U.S.

 

[Clouded Leopard]

Norfolk, on the F-16 delay - you've forgotten the recent UN referendum. I would suggest that is the greatest source of obstruction to the sale being completed. It would also explain why the US was ready to give it the go-ahead until recently.

UN referendum? Don't know if the State Dept. is clutching at straws to block the sale or what. And the US doesn't want to encourage A-Bian's referendum thing or what? (Referendum is next year, a long time.)

Dammit this is frustrating. Blocking sales because of a referendum.....wow.

 

[Deleted member 675]

UN referendum? Don't know if the State Dept. is clutching at straws to block the sale or what. And the US doesn't want to encourage A-Bian's referendum thing or what?

Basically the US wants to retain some control over Taiwan, lest one day its leaders do something silly. There is a fear that if Washington just oks all requests whilst these sort of things happen, it won't be able to easily stop something more serious.

Anyway, the State Department was against this before the referendum was announced so, as you say, it's sort of clutching at straws. We shall see if the DoD wins the argument in the coming months.

Be patient - don't get so stressed.

It depends whether you see the glass as being half empty or half full!

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According to sources, however, the Bush administration will approve the sale after the upcoming U.S. presidential elections but before Bush leaves office. A Democratic president is less likely to be sympathetic to Taiwan, sources in Taipei said.

A U.S. defense official argues that there are too many variables pushing Taiwan and the United States toward new F-16s.

“Even now, the aging F-5s are not a viable weapon system,” he said. “Without beyond-visual-range capability, they are just targets. These are the main reasons why Taiwan will be a hollow force by 2011 if Taiwan does not acquire additional new fighters now. A hollow Air Force could be destabilizing, since the Air Force is Taiwan’s first line of defense. A weakened Air Force could invite Chinese adventurism. That is not in the interest of the United States or the region.”

Rather, a beefed-up Taiwanese military will stabilize the region, a fact that should compel Taiwan’s neighbors to lobby Washington for the deal, the official said.

So it looks like there will be approval, it will just take time.

Patience is a virtue.

 

[Deleted member 675]

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The results of the U.S. presidential election are not expected to significantly affect the U.S. government's arms sales policy toward Taiwan, a think tank scholar said Tuesday. Michael D. Swaine, a senior researcher of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), made the remarks in an interview with reporters after attending a CEIP-sponsored seminar on China's military modernization and Taiwan's security.

The latest edition of Defense News, a U.S. weekly, indicates that Taiwan has reiterated its desire to order U.S.-made F-16 C/D fighter jets but is now facing an obstacle in striking a deal with the U.S. government. The reports quoted U.S. sources as saying the Bush administration is likely to approve the sale after the U.S. presidential election in November 2008 and that should the Democratic Party win, it will be less sympathetic toward Taiwan.

Nevertheless, Swaine said, no matter which party comes to power, the U.S. arms sales policy toward Taiwan will be consistent in supplying Taiwan with sufficient defensive weapons, adding that the next president will not be against the policy.

Swaine also said the U.S. government is not expected to link its sales of F-16s to President Chen Shui-bian's plan to push for a referendum on Taiwan's bid to join the United Nations under the name of Taiwan alongside the country's 2008 presidential election.

 

[Unit88]

Just wondering, what is the purpose of building up such a large military force in taiwan. I know that the media around the world are talking about eh crisis along the taiwan strait is getting worse now but, it is UNLIKELY that those chinese will invade, because based on historical trends, the chinese never invaded expressed "military barbarism (spelling is wrong i think ) against neighboring nations. Also another question, is Japan allowed to create herself a standing army or are they only allowed to have defence force with American troops stationed to maintain the treaty signed after the Japanese defeat after WWII.