Taiwan Military News Thread

[Deleted member 675]

A party operative/the party leadership will decide how the vote will go because I highly doubt that any member of Congress cares enough about an arms sale to Taiwan to make an issue out of it.

You have to be kidding - there's a Taiwan caucus in the US Congress (both houses) of considerable size.

I see no reason why this purchase should fail to be approved.

I agree that Congress would probably not veto the sale. For one thing, the Democrats didn't object to the missile order earlier this year - I don't see why they would block a fighter deal now, especially with the jobs it will secure.

What I really wonder is why Taiwan is buying more F-16s when it doesn't have enough missles for the ones it has. Or has that changed?

First, you've obviously forgotten about the recent AIM-120 order Taiwan made! Second, Taiwan needs new fighters to replace the F-5s. Missiles get delivered a lot faster than planes, so orders need to be placed now for the latter. Third, it has been reported there is another missile order included in the F-16 deal.

 

[tphuang]

remember, it was Bush that vetoed the F-16 deal last time. I think this is coming at a bad time for China, since at least back in the days they had the Iran card to play, now they can't threaten to sell weapons to Iran in retaliation.

 

[Deleted member 675]

remember, it was Bush that vetoed the F-16 deal last time.

Exactly and the reason quoted was the failure of the arms offered in 2001 to be ordered. It was also Bush Snr who blocked the original sale, though he eventually approved it. I don't think Congress has ever vetoed an arms sale to Taiwan.

I think this is coming at a bad time for China, since at least back in the days they had the Iran card to play, now they can't threaten to sell weapons to Iran in retaliation.

Iran and North Korea are almost as much a concern for China now as they are for other countries - it would be a bit foolish, not to mention provocative, to do that. Chinese influence over North Korea does count for something, but now that appears to have been settled that will count for less. Also China has been unable to bring Iran into line, so that doesn't help it much.

To be honest, I doubt China will be able to stop the US selling weapons to Taiwan for the foreseeable future, as it's in the US' interest to stop the balance of power tipping too much in China's favour.

 

[Clouded Leopard]

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I should also point out that there was money for more SM-2 missiles (so that the Kidds will be able to carry a full-load) and the AIM-120/AGM-65 purchase.

Okay, so it's in this year's budget.


I guess the pan-blues allowed the missiles to ride in the 2007 budget this way after all.

 

[yehe]

Agree, it was ALWAYS the US president that vetod and stopped some arms sale to Taiwan, not the Congress or Senate, since the president have far more things to consider, like international relationship and regional turbulance and instability.

But the US need to sale cutting edge equipment to Taiwan if they really want to keep a balance, F16 wont cut it soon unless it comes in huge quantity, JSF could be a choice. But anyway, selling advanced weapons to Taiwan is a huge provocative gesture just like selling weapons to Iran by China, in many sense its even more provocative and will certainly create a even faster arms race in the regoin, the F16MLU sale to ROC back in 1990s is basicly the starting of todays PLA modernasation plan.

 

[Deleted member 675]

the F16MLU sale to ROC back in 1990s is basicly the starting of todays PLA modernasation plan.

I doubt that China would have not started modernising if the US had not sold the F-16. After all France was offering Mirages - Taiwan would have bought more if the F-16s hadn't been offered.

China wasn't just responding to Taiwan, but also trying to improve its capabilities against the US and other regional powers. Even if Taiwan disarmed tomorrow, China would keep going as it is today.

 

[yehe]

I doubt that China would have not started modernising if the US had not sold the F-16. After all France was offering Mirages - Taiwan would have bought more if the F-16s hadn't been offered.

China wasn't just responding to Taiwan, but also trying to improve its capabilities against the US and other regional powers. Even if Taiwan disarmed tomorrow, China would keep going as it is today.

True, but difference between F16 and Mirage is that France wont be able to really interfere militarily to support Taiwan, while US's sale of F16 was viewed as a possible revival of old military alliance between ROC and USA, so its not just weapon but also have political background and impact in those deals.

I also agree that China would keep going on it's military modernization plan even without the Taiwan factor, but would have been going on a much slower pace with less money put in and also more focused on indigi military tech devlopement rather than buy large amount of foreign equipment so eagerly.

 

[Deleted member 675]

but would have been going on a much slower pace with less money put in and also more focused on indigi military tech devlopement rather than buy large amount of foreign equipment so eagerly.

Again, I disagree a lot. China is expanding at the pace it is because it wants to be able to deal with the US and Taiwan as quickly as possible, as well as challenge other regional powers. Taiwan isn't the only concern by a long-shot.

 

[Clouded Leopard]

First of all, China's military was antiquated. Enemy or no enemy, that old obsolete PLA had to be modernized sooner or later.


Secondly, as FuManChu says, China has a lot of potential scenarios to worry about other than just Taiwan. Think Japan, think India, think Vietnam, think Russia and the USA, in fact, think also about possible scenarios involving North Korea.

 

[yehe]

First of all, China's military was antiquated. Enemy or no enemy, that old obsolete PLA had to be modernized sooner or later.


Secondly, as FuManChu says, China has a lot of potential scenarios to worry about other than just Taiwan. Think Japan, think India, think Vietnam, think Russia and the USA, in fact, think also about possible scenarios involving North Korea.

I am not saying PLA wouldnt be modernizing, only I think would have been on a slower pace, if not for Taiwan, like during 80's and early 90's.


Japan might be some trouble for China at the sea, but lets face it, Vietnam and India isnt really considered as any real threats to China, regional problems for china maybe, but neither India nor Vietnam is in any Geographic or Geopolitical position to become a real military threat to China, they got nothing over China while China got alot counterwieght on them, India is basicly surrounded by China friendly nations, while Vietnam even at it's hight of military power after the unification of SV, is still only a border problem for China, at later half of 1980's the PLA already hade gain almost toltal superiority over the Vietnamese in the border conflict.
The Soviet however was considered as a real threat, but todays Russia is not, I think its more like the otherway around today, some Russians have a Chinafobi.
As for US, well, the hard truth is the PLA is not gonna be able to challenge the US anytime soon, and they know it themself, only reason US is now considered as a big threat to China is because of its possible military intervene in Taiwan, and most of todays PLA modernization is aimed to stop, delay and deter the US from intervene, not to defeat the US either regionally or Globally.
So basicly, Only Japan could be considered as a more or less military threat, but only on sea and Japans Geographic position aren't speaking for them either.