Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

Skywatcher said:

The TAO director would leave in a huff regardless of anyway the F-16 (there are other things being sold as well like the Apaches) went into, so I wouldn't read too much into that.

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He can't complain much about the Apaches because they were approved by Bush. Although it doesn't mean the F-16 sale is a done deal, clearly he didn't get what he wanted and that primarily would have been an assurance that no new arms sales would be approved.

flyzies said:

Putting aside the factor that this is the Taipei Times

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We know that talks are happening and the White House will consider it seriously, whereas Bush didn't even seem to get that far. How many times has the Taipei Times been so unreliable on arms sales? Don't bring politics into this.

By that time, those aircraft, while impressive, would and could not change the military balance across the strait.

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I disagree. They would help re-balance things, especially with the other upgrades in the works.

Besides, who knows what the Taiwan political landscape will be like by then...they could be much closer to China than they are today.

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Off-topic discussion and irrelevant.

Mr T said:

I disagree. They would help re-balance things, especially with the other upgrades in the works.

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In Ambivalent's article a few posts back, it stated that Taiwan's defence budget can't really support both a full upgrade of its existing F-16A/B fleet if the sale of more F-16s goes through.

Semi-Lobster said:

In Ambivalent's article a few posts back, it stated that Taiwan's defence budget can't really support both a full upgrade of its existing F-16A/B fleet if the sale of more F-16s goes through.

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That's an article I posted some time ago - I know it well. It said that it was unlikely the fleet could be upgraded with new engines if new F-16s are bought. The rest of the upgrades could still go ahead, which are far more critical in any case.

I disagree. They would help re-balance things, especially with the other upgrades in the works.

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No, because the PLAAF will 1) induct more J-10s to balance out F-16s and 2) have the option of upgrading the avionics/electronics of existing J-10s. The first batch of J-10s is said to be on par with the F-16C in terms of radar, avionics, and electronics while it is speculated to be superior to the F-16 in terms of performance and maneuverability.

Now, with F-16C/Ds it gives the ROCAF something on the same level as the current production-model J-10, which is already starting to be surpassed by other aircraft within the PLAAF. Even with the AESA-equipped F-16E/F, the ROCAF will have to contend with J-10Bs and AESA-equipped J-10s by that timeframe. Furthermore, Su-30s and J-11Bs offer the PLAAF capability that is matched by nothing within the ROCAF.

In the end, if those upgrades and purchases were totally completed today, things would be rebalanced, but those upgrades and purchases simply cannot keep pace with the PLAAF's upgrade and acquisition programs.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

No, because the PLAAF will 1) induct more J-10s to balance out F-16s and 2) have the option of upgrading the avionics/electronics of existing J-10s.

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Huh? If the PLAAF can do that at the drop of a hat, it will do so anyway. It wants as much superiority over the ROCAF as possible. It's not playing some game where the rules say it can only have 120% capability of its opponent.

The first batch of J-10s is said to be on par with the F-16C in terms of radar, avionics, and electronics while it is speculated to be superior to the F-16 in terms of performance and maneuverability.

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According to whom? I'm not saying that the J-10 is rubbish, but I'd like a lot more than "is said to be" if I'm to change my view.

Huh? If the PLAAF can do that at the drop of a hat, it will do so anyway. It wants as much superiority over the ROCAF as possible. It's not playing some game where the rules say it can only have 120% capability of its opponent.

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The PLAAF will expand its capabilities regardless of what the ROCAF does. Whether the ROCAF pushes ahead with the upgrades/acquisitions or not, the PLAAF will still have total superiority.

According to whom? I'm not saying that the J-10 is rubbish, but I'd like a lot more than "is said to be" if I'm to change my view.

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Why don't you take a look at some articles online?

Mr T said:

I disagree. They would help re-balance things, especially with the other upgrades in the works.

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I think FriedRiceNSpice summed it up quite well when first replied to this. I will add that the military balance across the strait already swung permanently in China's favour around middle of this decade. And like i said, even IF the F-16 C/D sale went ahead, by the time Taiwan actually receive those aircraft, we would expect PLAAF and PLAN to have advanced again right across the spectrum.

Off-topic discussion and irrelevant.

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It may be slightly off topic but it certainly has alot of relevance. Nothing in this world affects any military more than the decisions made by their political masters. Now, since we're discussing the F-16 sale; militarily, the US have known Taiwan needed those aircraft years ago...but whether or not they will sell it depends on discussions within the White House, not the Pentagon.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

The PLAAF will expand its capabilities regardless of what the ROCAF does.

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Precisely. So it is helpful if Taiwan buys new fighters and upgrades the current inventory.

Whether the ROCAF pushes ahead with the upgrades/acquisitions or not, the PLAAF will still have total superiority.

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An advantage, yes, but not total superiority.

Why don't you take a look at some articles online?

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What sort of articles and where? Be more specific, please.

flyzies said:

by the time Taiwan actually receive those aircraft, we would expect PLAAF and PLAN to have advanced again right across the spectrum.

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Maybe it will advance, but to what degree? You're guessing, whereas a new purchase of F-16s is something concrete.

It may be slightly off topic but it certainly has alot of relevance. Nothing in this world affects any military more than the decisions made by their political masters.

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You were hypothesising on how close China and Taiwan would be. That is not something for this thread because it will lead to "China and Taiwan will be close and Taiwan won't need armed forces" then "no they won't and yes it will" then "you're wrong", "no you're wrong", etc. Keep it to military matters only, please. You know this is a no-politics forum, whether we like it or not, even if it makes sense to discuss politics sometimes.

Mr T said:

That's an article I posted some time ago - I know it well. It said that it was unlikely the fleet could be upgraded with new engines if new F-16s are bought. The rest of the upgrades could still go ahead, which are far more critical in any case.

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Um, that article was published last week. It just landed in the mail box at work. Just how long ago is "some time ago" in your opinion???

Mr T said:

Maybe it will advance, but to what degree? You're guessing, whereas a new purchase of F-16s is something concrete.

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Given how PLA is covered in secrecy, to a more or less degree everyone will be guessing. But based on how far we've seen PLA advanced in the previous 7 years, i would say the next 7 years of advancement would be at similar pace.

You were hypothesising on how close China and Taiwan would be. That is not something for this thread because it will lead to "China and Taiwan will be close and Taiwan won't need armed forces" then "no they won't and yes it will" then "you're wrong", "no you're wrong", etc. Keep it to military matters only, please. You know this is a no-politics forum, whether we like it or not, even if it makes sense to discuss politics sometimes.

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I am keeping to military matters. Youre the one that chose to quote the only one sentence of my response that touched on politics and ignored the rest which was about military aspects.

And if you read my entire previous response, you will see i am not hypothesising how close China and Taiwan may or may not be in the future. I was pointing out when US makes the decision whether to sell F-16s or not, it would be a political decision made by Obama's Administration, not a military one.