Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

Mr T said:

It's not just about cash, it's also about strategic balance. It's not in America's interest to see China have an ever increasing military advantage over Taiwan.

China has cards to play against the US, but it's also been pointed out that some of them (financial) would hurt it just as much. That's why I would be very surprised if the Black Hawk deal did not pass by the end of the year. Don't know about the submarines, but I wouldn't write the F-16s off either.

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Hello pals!
I second that Mr T.
But I also mostly agree with pla101prc's post, when he mentioned about the risk USA would take in dealing arms to Taiwan ROC... How many hundreds of billions USD did PRC lend to the USA during the crisis?! :coffee:
Even though discussions are under way now, I also don t think that any deal would come this year!
And are we sure that Taiwan is only discussing with USA now?

Aero_Wing_32 said:

How many hundreds of billions USD did PRC lend to the USA during the crisis?!

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I could be wrong, but I believe that China didn't lend America a penny. It continued to buy Treasury shares, which is an investment. That's why China can't veto US arms sales to Taiwan, just try to have them delayed or encourage Washington to limit what is sold.

Even though discussions are under way now, I also don t think that any deal would come this year!

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If there isn't a deal for the F-16s this year I think Taiwan will start buying newly-built IDFs. It needs to plug the fighter gap. I have a feeling the Black Hawks will be sorted before the end of the year though.

And are we sure that Taiwan is only discussing with USA now?

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Not at all, I'm sure they're still talking to the French.

Mr T said:

It's not just about cash, it's also about strategic balance. It's not in America's interest to see China have an ever increasing military advantage over Taiwan.

China has cards to play against the US, but it's also been pointed out that some of them (financial) would hurt it just as much. That's why I would be very surprised if the Black Hawk deal did not pass by the end of the year. Don't know about the submarines, but I wouldn't write the F-16s off either.

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there is a difference between black hawk and f-16 lol.
i have been studying IR every day for the past two years and i can tell you a couple of new jet fighters will not change the balance of power there. whenever Taiwan acquires something new, it will not take long for the Mainland to come up with a way or a weapon to counter it. balance of power aint all about weapons, otherwise Germany would have crushed Soviet Union back in 41 (or was it 42 i forgot). the Mainland has way more of everything at its disposal than Taiwan does. in the end the Mainland is gonna benefit from making all their weapons because it builds a good industrial base and stimulates technology and economy. and Taiwan will be screwed cuz they are just spending money.
selling weapons have always been a political gesture. and right now it just aint time for obama to make this political gesture. maybe in a few years he will but not now unless he thinks he needs more of those useless political stunts to boost his own personal ego.

Mr T said:

I could be wrong, but I believe that China didn't lend America a penny. It continued to buy Treasury shares, which is an investment. That's why China can't veto US arms sales to Taiwan, just try to have them delayed or encourage Washington to limit what is sold.



If there isn't a deal for the F-16s this year I think Taiwan will start buying newly-built IDFs. It needs to plug the fighter gap. I have a feeling the Black Hawks will be sorted before the end of the year though.



Not at all, I'm sure they're still talking to the French.

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dude selling T-bills is the same as lending money, its word games.

Taiwan has a whole bunch of F-16's that were sold like during the bush sr era lol, i think those are gonna be out of service in 5-10 years. if they wanna replace those they'll need way more than 66 fighters. and this is like the preliminary round of preliminary round of the discussion (for F-16), so yeah they should either talk with the French (cuz they dont like China for the moment being) or they should buy a few more IDF.

again no surprise if the black hawk deal goes through, its a not an offensive weapon...

pla101prc said:

dude selling T-bills is the same as lending money, its word games.

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There are important distinctions, such as probable duration. But never mind. The point is that China has never (to my knowledge) stopped buying Treasury bills because of US arms sales to China. The most it has done is reduce relations on the military level.

Taiwan has a whole bunch of F-16's that were sold like during the bush sr era lol, i think those are gonna be out of service in 5-10 years.

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They're about 10-12 years old. I'd say they have a lot more than 5 years left in them. Depends how hard they've been flown, but in future years if necessary they might be suitable for SLEP.

again no surprise if the black hawk deal goes through, its a not an offensive weapon...

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Arguably F-16s aren't either if they're not sold offensive weapons to go with them. Currently Taiwan's only long-ranged air-to-ground missiles can be fired from the IDF.

pla101prc said:

...so yeah they should either talk with the French (cuz they dont like China for the moment being).

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Where have you been told that France doesnt like China? I suppose, french can do business with whatever they want. As far as we know, PRC also do like this by selling weaponry and rockets all over the world. Ask NATO forces in Afghanistan... ff

Air Trade Show at Le Bourget will start up soon. We can know more about some future arm deals. I just wonder what could be discussed: a Mirage 2000-9 deal or Rafales deal?! That s still the question.

i have been studying IR every day for the past two years and i can tell you a couple of new jet fighters will not change the balance of power there. whenever Taiwan acquires something new, it will not take long for the Mainland to come up with a way or a weapon to counter it. balance of power aint all about weapons, otherwise Germany would have crushed Soviet Union back in 41 (or was it 42 i forgot). the Mainland has way more of everything at its disposal than Taiwan does. in the end the Mainland is gonna benefit from making all their weapons because it builds a good industrial base and stimulates technology and economy. and Taiwan will be screwed cuz they are just spending money.
selling weapons have always been a political gesture. and right now it just aint time for obama to make this political gesture. maybe in a few years he will but not now unless he thinks he needs more of those useless political stunts to boost his own personal ego.

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pla101prc makes an excellent point. Too often analysts get caught up in the balance sheets of countries at one point in time, not the potential power. Many nations have ramped up their arms productively to amazing scales in just a few years, USA in 1941, the USSR in 1941, Germany in 1944 (yes, Germany only went to a full war footing that late and was still INCREASING production of arms during the bombing raids), and Japan in World War II. Hell you can go back to many countries throughout history who ramped up their war machines and threw everything they had when the chips were down, my favorite being Rome's resistance to Hannibal's repeated victories against large Roman armies. Rome resisted with everything they could, tapping previously un-used labor forces like slaves to fight.

China's economy is $4.3 trillion, 12x that of Taiwan's $383 billion. And China has FAR more industrial might to pump out hardware as 49% of their already larger economy is based on industry vs 28% of Taiwan's. It would be a big mistake to think that only the planes and ships we see in service today would fight in a future war. If China really commits itself to total, non-nuclear war, it can draw on a labor and industrial base unrivaled in history.

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kliu0 said:

The F-16s Taiwan has now, can't they just upgrade them to C/D standard?

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It depends which block you're talking about. But they already have a lot of the later blocks' characteristics. Further upgrades have been considered, but that would not help replace the F-5s when they're pulled out of service.

The F-5 IIs also, they can upgrade just like the Singapore Air Force did.[/QUOTE]

Maybe, but that assumes they're suitable for keeping in service even if upgraded (i.e. there's plenty of life left in them).

Better to replace with new IDFs in my view if no foreign sales are forthcoming. Then some of the money that had been put aside for the new F-16s or Rafales could be spent on upgrading existing Migrages and/or F-16s.

kliu0 said:

Yes, I heard the Paris Air Show. Rafales hopefully, Taiwan has to negotiate hard with France, use the previous scandal as leverage to get the 4.5 gen fighters and some extra cash. But then again, Taiwan could just use this to get the F-16s as they are cheaper than the Rafales. Hopefully this show will mark some progress in arms sales.

The F-16s Taiwan has now, can't they just upgrade them to C/D standard?
The F-5 IIs also, they can upgrade just like the Singapore Air Force did.

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a later version of mirage 2000 maybe, but a 4.5 gen is impossible just in case you get disappointed later on