I'm not serious, please ignore my previous reply.
Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.
- Thread starter Gollevainen
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The West accuses China of having a 2027 target date for invading Taiwan. This is really just a confession that Western analysis suggests 2027 is the inflection point beyond which a Western war with China over Taiwan is statistically guaranteed to be catastrophically lost in any plausible scenario. I base this on the various military think tank leaks of American war gaming results that made waves before mainstream media staged rigged war games with fake results as damage control.
If you want to minimize risk the best choice for time of war is simply never. At the rate of spending splurges by US government it will almost certainly get bankrupt losing its financial center status before 2035. The problem is that if you decide not to actively pursue unification, Taiwan will be effectively lost forever in this generation's time.I'm not serious, please ignore my previous reply.
Disagree. Moderate political coercion with strong military backing can do the trick just like it did for nominally taking back HK. The bar is just much higher because Taiwan is larger, richer, and more valuable to the West due to lobbying, chips, investment, and bribes.
Taiwan was never richer than Hong Kong. Ignoring the ridiculous housing prices, Hong Kong is arguably one of the highest living standard places on the planet. Its just that Taiwan is actively pursuing the path to become spiritual Japanese and after another decade the costs with reunification will become unbearably high.
The US claims 2027 is the Overton Window when the US Navy will be at its nadir due to ship retirements. That if China doesn't strike Taiwan then the US Navy will become unassailable afterwards or something. Just pure bollocks.
The US number of active ships will continue to go down even after that. But worse for them is that the gap in new tonnage and technology vs the PLAN will increase not decrease.
China will field nuclear supercarriers and next generation frigates for example. The US remaining numerical advantage in carriers and submarines will shrink.
The US has been preparing for a war with China for quite some time. They will just try to force a war come hell or high water I think. Then they will use this as an excuse to embargo China.
The US number of active ships will continue to go down even after that. But worse for them is that the gap in new tonnage and technology vs the PLAN will increase not decrease.
China will field nuclear supercarriers and next generation frigates for example. The US remaining numerical advantage in carriers and submarines will shrink.
The US has been preparing for a war with China for quite some time. They will just try to force a war come hell or high water I think. Then they will use this as an excuse to embargo China.
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You're talking about per capita income/wealth. I'm talking about aggregate income/wealth on a national level, which is the one that has strategic bearing.
Yeah, the best time to invade is never. China doesn't want war with Taiwan, and has no real reason for one either. While I've seen a lot of Western thinkers talk about the unfinished civil war, I don't think it holds much water any more. The Communists have won, and have done so very decisively; it's just a matter of picking up the pieces. The main reason remaining for the push for reunification is that Taiwan is the last piece of of the repudiation of the Century of Humiliation. This is literally the main reason for the PRC's existence and so it's an absolute core interest.
But because of what it represents politically (and perhaps spiritually), the value of a peaceful reunification is vastly higher than a military one. And this is before we even consider that an invasion carries a lot of risk, and has very serious economic and political consequences. What all this adds up to is that, as long as there's even a chance of a political solution, China has no reason to resort to a military one. This is especially true as China's position only gets more advantageous year by year.
There are two main reasons for Taiwanese opposition: economic and political. A lot of Taiwanese still believe that China is a poor and technologically backward country that is still under highly oppressive government control. The Pan-Green media loves to play up these messages, and the kinds of things they say can be hilarious. But because it's not based on reality, it's impossible to keep up the charade forever. Sure, the Taiwanese attitude towards reunification isn't going to shift overnight, but China is nothing if not patient, and it's almost certain to happen eventually.
No. The authorities currently governing Taiwan are not understating their military capabilities.
If anything, they exaggerate their commitment to, as well as the capabilities of, their military because that's what Uncle Sam wants to hear. They even absurdly claim to contribute to broader regional security, despite their :
Once you look at the numbers, it's blatant, if not laughable BS. The island of Taiwan spends less than 3% of local economic output on defense, when it should be higher than Israeli defense spending as a percentage of GDP, considering what the PLA is capable of versus the totality of military threats facing Israel.
That isn't to say the local military in Taiwan is completely incompetent or void of meaningful kinetic capabilities, but it's evident they're praying for US intervention rather than counting on themselves should conflict erupt against the PLA.
(delete if not allowed) Some things I have noticed about Taiwan during these Han Kuang exercises is they really don’t know how a war will go down and don’t care about their revisits what will be highly important if war happens. Here are some things I have noticed.
1. They think China will try to capture ports as they have done training defending it 3 times including mining important infrastructure.
2. They seem to think China will try to take over an airforce base using airborne troops including one the most important ones in Taiwan.
3. they think China will use the river to get to Taipei so set up huge set up C4 in the river what weren’t even set up properly.
4. they have no idea how to conceal anything including HIMARS, Abrams and radars and their own AD systems.
5. they think any war will be like the Cold War still using ww2/cold war style defense including hedgehogs, razor wire, etc.
6. Their troop training hasn’t been the best including standing up straight to fire and using the charging lever after every shot, and putting the muzzle in a bush and firing a shot every 2 seconds.
7. Using a public basketball court to teach things to revisits including machine guns, how to work a mortar and clearing a wall what they didn’t learn, was more so a checking off boxes
8. Low motivation from revisits including soldiers not paying attention and slouching and visibly seeming bored.
1. They think China will try to capture ports as they have done training defending it 3 times including mining important infrastructure.
2. They seem to think China will try to take over an airforce base using airborne troops including one the most important ones in Taiwan.
3. they think China will use the river to get to Taipei so set up huge set up C4 in the river what weren’t even set up properly.
4. they have no idea how to conceal anything including HIMARS, Abrams and radars and their own AD systems.
5. they think any war will be like the Cold War still using ww2/cold war style defense including hedgehogs, razor wire, etc.
6. Their troop training hasn’t been the best including standing up straight to fire and using the charging lever after every shot, and putting the muzzle in a bush and firing a shot every 2 seconds.
7. Using a public basketball court to teach things to revisits including machine guns, how to work a mortar and clearing a wall what they didn’t learn, was more so a checking off boxes
8. Low motivation from revisits including soldiers not paying attention and slouching and visibly seeming bored.
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