Which suggests the US is unlikely to opt for another "quick and easy" operation, which would give them a similar level of casualties, in a much shorter period of time.
That would be incorrect. The US has been Afghanistan's top security problem for the last 20 years as they terrorized Afghanistan day in and day out killing innocent civilians before deciding they can't afford to keep playing thier cruel game.
Poorly armed goat farmers aren't as soft as they thought, were they?
At the start of the war, most people thought the US had the competence to finish it quickly. That was the goal. Being mired for 20 years then leaving it to the Taliban is far worse than what anyone could have thought at the beginning. This is an example of horrible American failure and incompetence for all to see and that would have been true even without considering the final moments.
China will not utilize any first strike against the US; that tactic is used by a nation that either feels that all out war is certain and/or that it cannot win otherwise. A China that can pick the moment of conflict (if there needs to be one) and is growing faster than any antagonistic (or friendly) militarily will wait until it is stong enough to make its strike and no one would dare intervene. By that time, strike may not be necessary. China's fast-growing nuclear arsenal also ties into this strategy.
What a cowardly thing to do, hint you're "independent" without daring to directly declare it. All independent nations can proudly go to the UN and declare that they are independent. If a guy whispers, "I'm free to do whatever I want," only while looking left and right to make sure he's not heard by his master, do you believe he's free? LOL But anyway, that cowardice actually works better for us because...
Sounds perfect; we'll pick a time convenient for us then.
Is it though? If Taiwan is independent why hasn't Taiwan declared itself a sovereign nation and changed the name of the state from Republic of China to Taiwan? If Taiwan maintains the status quo, like you assume they will, why do you think Beijing has a problem with that? The fundamental issue is Tsai wants to 'push the switch' and erode the status quo.Not really. Certainly polls from around five years ago showed lower numbers of Taiwanese willing to fight. If they were fake or responses not truthful they'd always have the same results.
Not that any poll result is binding, but it's at least as useful as the bluster one sees on military forums about how manly people are and how they'd go fight for Country X if needed (just don't ask them to sign up now).
Last time I checked the US provided most of Afghanistan's security for 20 years - longer than the Soviets - with thousands of US personnel killed and tens of thousands wounded. No one on this forum predicted the US staying so long.
China's military planning will almost certainly assume there will be a US response. The only question will be whether, in the event of an attack on Taiwan, the PLA attacks US bases first, or, to avoid a Pearl Harbour US political backlash, doesn't make a first strike and gives US forces time to respond.
And President Tsai has indicated that the chances of a UDI are zero, as she has stated Taiwan is already independent. So Taiwan is unlikely to "push the switch" to give Beijing an excuse to attack - the ball is in the CCP's court.
Yeah, 20 years of killing civilians and basically running away afterwards while bombing a family on the way out. Yeah real reliable there and also to note is that China has yet to act on Taiwan because unlike what you are hinting at, China has no need to act rashly when the future issues in Taiwan are getting increasingly dire with the electrical and water issues along with future opportunities shrinking to the point where the people of Taiwan are increasingly looking to the main land for work. Hence the ball isn’t in the CCPs court but that of Taiwan and if they think they can achieve independence without any real costs (of which Taiwan doesn’t have remotely enough to pay or suffer). President Tsai is failing more and more each day and the people in Taiwan are slowly turning away from this mess of a person and ultimately a reunification is inevitable whether you like it or not. The USA, should they fail and they already are, in Ukraine and in khazastan, more nations will ultimately pay the USA less and less attention to an ally whose words are growing increasingly worthless and also right now, not many people in the USA is wanting for a fight other then the war hawks that cannot be satisfied at all. So really, other then the USA and lapdogs in question, not many nations would really care or would be willing to send soldiers to die for Taiwan and those that do would withdraw the moment China starts bombing their assets with DFs (and be honest Japan and Australia are cowards that cannot and will not suffer casualties and would rather the USA to do all the heavy lifting when the USA as it is right now has the much more pressing issues to worry about like an oncoming civil war of homeless people and breaking down infrastructure and the ordinary people can give a toss about Taiwan then) and that is if China has any real need to do so when Taiwans internal issues are doing the job of ruining Taiwan for China to eventually unite with Taiwan at the Taiwanese urging to end the chaos gripping the nation.Not really. Certainly polls from around five years ago showed lower numbers of Taiwanese willing to fight. If they were fake or responses not truthful they'd always have the same results.
Not that any poll result is binding, but it's at least as useful as the bluster one sees on military forums about how manly people are and how they'd go fight for Country X if needed (just don't ask them to sign up now).
Last time I checked the US provided most of Afghanistan's security for 20 years - longer than the Soviets - with thousands of US personnel killed and tens of thousands wounded. No one on this forum predicted the US staying so long.
China's military planning will almost certainly assume there will be a US response. The only question will be whether, in the event of an attack on Taiwan, the PLA attacks US bases first, or, to avoid a Pearl Harbour US political backlash, doesn't make a first strike and gives US forces time to respond.
And President Tsai has indicated that the chances of a UDI are zero, as she has stated Taiwan is already independent. So Taiwan is unlikely to "push the switch" to give Beijing an excuse to attack - the ball is in the CCP's court.
I wouldn't read too much into these percentages. If 70% mainlanders are willing to fight against an American or Japanese invasion, somehow that will increase China's chance of winning? it will only get more people killed. PLA increased its fighting power by cutting personnel.
