Syria Shoots Down Turkish Fighter Jet

Clearly Assad still has friends and is receiving the kind of intel only friends could provide.
I agree with Peter Lee that the last couple of weeks were supposed to end the current Government and to have Rebel forces strategically placed to set up their own regime.

The plan has failed and will probably cost the rebels dear and could well take the steam out of the revolution. They stand to lose many of their best fighters and the confidence of their overseas backers. In addition by halting and reversing the momentum, the Syrian Government will persuade many weather cocks from committing themselves to the rebel cause.

The Kurdish development is very significant however. Turkey has enough difficulty trying to balance its owns interests and its alliance obligations as it is, but this could throw that balance completely. You have to assume that fundamental national interest will trump everything and so that Turkey will sacrifice the rebel cause in the name of its own unity.

An attack by Turkey on the new semi-autonomous Kurdish areas of Syria is still an attack on Syria and this would open a whole new can of worms.

I see little reason the fighting can't be financed to continue for at least 15 years, because it's cheaper to destroy and disturb than to protect and create.

Kurt said:

I see little reason the fighting can't be financed to continue for at least 15 years, because it's cheaper to destroy and disturb than to protect and create.

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That is true enough, but revolutions need momentum, need to be seen as unstoppable, in order for the majority to ditch old allegiances and get behind it for fear of being seen as being on the wrong side.

I think the last couple of weeks were supposed to power that momentum to a rapid conclusion, but this has now failed and so anybody supporting it that can realistically argue distance between it and the hard core rebels will now be planning to abandon it.

Yes a low level insurgency can rumble on for years, but it will never seriously challenge for power again.

Challenge for power? If for years on an armed conflict is financed in a country, there's an increasing imbalance of internal financial capability to foreign financial leverage - the foreign powers win. The latest events showed that it won't be that fast, but no stepping stone to a larger assault can stand alone without support. Syrian Alawi rule goes down or Iran gets in to help them.
The failed grand assault is not bad from the perspective of foreign involvement. It gives more control and selection of hardcore "rebels" in order to keep the momentum as long as the powers behind have not played all available cards.

So are the Syrian rebels going to the equivalent way of the Taliban in Pakistan? A slow, lingering conflict.

no_name said:

So are the Syrian rebels going to the equivalent way of the Taliban in Pakistan? A slow, lingering conflict.

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I don't know, it's an option. Syria can be neutralized by an ongoing internal conflict that makes it difficult to assist in any power projection to help their friend Iran. But the other option is still on the table, conquest of Syria by toppling the old and installing a new regime. The whole story is about probing Syrian defences(air, land, internal, economic) and there can have been some miscalculations, but neither have all available cards yet been played.
Furthermore, a very hot conflict in Syria, with the option for substantial influence gains, is the lantern-light to attract the jihadist professional warrior-moths and ease pressure on places like Afghanistan. It's my guess that the developments in Syria are in schedule connected to the withdrawal from other places and their stabilization. Most "Talibans" are locals who don't leave a certain radius around their village. In all of these conflicts, there's a global highly mobile group of trainers with monetary supporters, who fuel these fires - not that different from what special forces often do.

no_name said:

So are the Syrian rebels going to the equivalent way of the Taliban in Pakistan? A slow, lingering conflict.

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Taliban can not exist in open areas, they do not attack citys and towns, they get to Islamabad because its very close to the mounatins and hills

infact Taliban cant exist anywhere in the world apart from the pourous regions of the Pak-Afghan border, so its out of the question that will happen in Syria

and you mention Taliban do you know who Taliban is?

I get the impression that many here believe that what we have is a covert International Coalition dedicated to achieving regime change in one isolated country.
If that is what is believed, then I am afraid that it is mistaken in a number of ways.
I see very little actual cohesion between the enemies of Assad and the split falls into distinct groups:
The Saudis and the Gulf States
Israel
Turkey
NATO excluding Turkey.

The main drivers of this are the Saudis who want to establish themselves as the pre-eminent regional power and eclipse Iran and Turkey. Syria was an important centre for the Saudis and was intended as the Capital of a United Arab Caliphate after the war against the Ottomans.

The Israelis have their own agenda and probably dislike the likely alternatives as much as they dislike the Status Quo.

Turkey is a Schizophrenic country torn between its own interests as a resurgent regional power and its collective responsibility as a NATO member.

NATO would love to see Assad gone, would love to see a real Democratic movement take over, dreads the establishment of yet another Fundamentalist State, but cannot be seen to be at odds with the Saudis and Gulf Arabs.

The only thing they all agree on, is the desire to contain Iran.

Even so, such powerful forces aligned (or even misaligned) against Syria should have been enough to topple the Assad Government by now.

Clearly then, it is not a coalition against one, but two coalitions in contest and the coalition helping Syria is probably far more unified than the one against it.

No doubt Iran views this as major threat against its influence and is using all its resources to help counter regional moves. More importantly Russia under Putin see's the maintenance of Iranian influence as a core interest in the maintenance of its own Central Asian Energy Monopoly. In short a threat to Syria is a threat to Iran, which is a threat to Russia. Likewise China will see the preservation of the Status Quo over Central Asia as central to its interests and is supporting Iran and Russia.

The next big mistake is to believe that it is a static contest. It is not. The nature of the game dictate that the West is able to initiate the moves and rate of escalation in the covert competition. Every time they do however, they open the door for the allies of Syria to start acting likewise in response .
Syria has a very effective internal security force, while Iran and Russia have formidable counter intelligence capabilities and these are now being brought to bear with increasing ferociousness. There can be little doubt that the various rebel groups have been heavily and deeply penetrated and that little goes on of any consequence that Syria and its allies are unaware.

The pieces in this competition are super national and as more power and intrigue is used, the wider the repercussions for neighbouring states. Assad has now started to play the Kurdish card which returns the compliment to Ankara for setting up rebel bases on Turkish territory to train and launch attacks into Syria. Likewise many of the same sectarian fault lines that afflict Syria are also present in Jordan and spill over into the kingdom is widely anticipated.

Behind all this is the sense of the Chinese CNP Juggernaut bulldozing into the region and filling the space left by the US repivot to East Asia. China of course brings money and demand and is the only country able to talk to both Iran and the Saudis on the basis of equal amicability. It is this ability to manage both relationships, more than any other factor that really has he ability to reach a solution between the regional rivals and to do so in a way that is in China's interest.

The chances of this increase the longer Assad is able to survive and deny the rebels any lasting victory. I think that this phase is now starting, with the end of a reasonable assumption of victory for the rebels in Syria and the very real likelihood of the trouble spilling over the borders to Syria's neighbours.

Keep a very close eye on Chinese diplomacy over the coming months!

asif iqbal said:

Taliban can not exist in open areas, they do not attack citys and towns, they get to Islamabad because its very close to the mounatins and hills

infact Taliban cant exist anywhere in the world apart from the pourous regions of the Pak-Afghan border, so its out of the question that will happen in Syria

and you mention Taliban do you know who Taliban is?

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Asif points out that what currently is subsummized under the Taliban label is different from the forces that formerly really ruled most of Afghanistan. The former Taliban rulers rode in large columns of armed pick-up trucks, technicals, around and enforced their rule and had large scale battles with enemies. The current Taliban are mostly local groups who rarely go far from the place they were born and neither ride around in suspicious manner under drone surveillance. These guys can create a mess in remote areas, but will have a major problem in unchartered territory, such as cities or anywhere else their goats are confused.
The problem with this kind of Taliban is that they are a kind of organized crime that like the old mafia enforces a code of conduct that is counterproductive for government work. They are a backlash of anti-modernism that works best where nepotism of invasive institutions threatens old ways and real knowledge of the Qur'an is supplanted by tribal traditions and heathen beliefs.
The more mobile groups try different labels, like , with the intention to set themselves apart from the local ragtag that works more by beating people than shooting soldiers. A situation like the Taliban is refusal by parts of a tribe to recognize the central government, using violence, Islam is a disguise for giving claims some moral base.
Many Westerners are not quite aware how outlandish the claims of many Talibans, Fedayeen and al-Qaida are from an Islamic theological perspective. There's a movement to read the Qur'an and lead a more moral life according to the scripture, part of the major jihad that is fought within every Muslim. Some people think the first had moral pefection and glorify them, including the Medieval replacements of tooth brushes, without noting heathen context nor recognizing the , the salafists. Some go further and get manipulated for suicides and a way of war irreconcilable with any serious study of Islamic military jurisprudence and call this minor jihad a way of "life" (often an excuse from the major jihad within).

I think SampanViking has the correct analysis. I add that I read in several media, for example The New York Times ( ) that Sunni extremists are taking an ever larger role in the insurrection, which will lead non-Sunni's as well as moderate Sunni non-insurgents to prefer ever more strongly the current regime.
Between Syria and Iran there is Iraq. There too the violence is probably largely financed by Saudi Arabia, likely with the agreement or even help of the CIA. There is also the matter of Western oil companies exploring in Iraqi Kurdistan without a permit from the Iraqi government. Any oil or gas produced there is to be exported to or through Turkey. It seems likely to me that such export will be deemed illegal by the Iraqi government and would be stopped even if that means bombing pumping stations within Iraq.
In addition I wonder how the Turkish leaders balance their several interests.
We do live in interesting times.