Re: J-20 The New Generation Fighter Thread IV
And where have I asked for a perfect model, pray tell? In your imagination?
And where did you pull this 90% figure out of? Your nether regions?
Firstly, I have explained in one of my previous posts that in
post #1869, your ally expected every single details to be replicated, which would result in a perfect model. Secondly, you are making a big deal out of any deviation in the last few percents of RCS estimation. Anyone who is not expecting perfection will find that small of a deviation as being acceptable.
You're moving the goal posts again. The "no qualification, restriction, or limitation" definition of absolute applies to your "predictions" about the other guy's technology, unless you're precognitive
Nope. First of all, your definition has nothing to do with the statement "you can absolutely predict how the other guy's technology will behave". Secondly, your interpretation of the dictionary was entirely opposite to what the dictionary is saying. There is no such requirement of "using the exact same pieces of technology", not even according to the dictionary, as the meaning is entirely your invention.
And given that the J-20 is still well in the R&D phase, how do they already have the spare expertise to go and calculate the F-22's RCS, even if the two fighters use the same stealth technology (the F-22 and F-35 use completely different RAM approaches for starters)?
Firstly, estimating RCS does not require all the fighters to use the same pieces of technologies. We are talking about estimates, not exact values. Second, there exist expertise for China to drawn upon, irrespectively of whether they are spare. What you have brought up here is non-issue.
Doubling the RCS of a 5th generation fighter does matter.
Rebecca Grant states in The Radar Game, published by the Mitchell Institute, that a 40% reduction in RCS leads to a 10% decrease in detection range. Let's take a thought exercise here.
Now let us assume that there are two fifth generation fighters, A and B, going head to head in combat, both supercruising at Mach 1.5. (about 1830km per hour).
Fighter A's radar can detect a 0.025m2 sized target at 60km. But contrary to what the lead contractors of Fighter A thought, Fighter B's RCS is not 0.025m2 but 0.015m2 and thus Fighter A only detect. Fighter B can detect Fighter A at 60km, since Fighter A's RCS is actually 0.025m2.
In those six seconds* where Fighter B can detect Fighter A (but not vice versa), Fighter B can shoot a BVRAAM at Fighter A. An AMRAAM has a speed of Mach 4 (4900kmh), so Fighter B's BVRAAM will have traveled 8km before Fighter A can even shoot back. This leaves Fighter A at a great disadvantage, to put things mildly.
*Both fighters are going at a speed of about 0.5km a second heading towards each other, so covering a 6km gap will take 6 seconds. It could be possible for Fighter B to try to maneuver to stay at least 54km away from Fighter A while maintaining a radar lock to lengthen that window.
If you are wondering where I get the 90% figure from when I said you are portraying Chinese experts as a bunch of amatures, your above post would be it.
Previously, we have learned that 90~95% of the stealth comes from shaping. This puts the remaining 5~10% as effects from RAM. In other words, by assuming there to be a 10% miscalculation in RCS estimation, your thought experiment assumed the Chinese engineers to be so incompetent that their estimations would miss the effects from RAM entirely. Your experiment isn't realistic to begin with. Additionally, there are three other problems.
First, there is a difference between detection and lock. This was brought up very early on when the scans from a Chinese paper was posted. As opposed to your imagination, your fighter B will not enjoy the advantage of launching any missile right after detection.
Second, BVRAAM does not have an initial speed of 4900 km/h. The missile has to accelerate, so the actual range traveled by the missile would actually be less than 8 km.
Thirdly, a fighter cannot maintain 54km away while presenting the least RCS simultaneously. If Fighter B turns, RCS would not be minimal. If Fighter B maintains its heading, the distance will close rapidly and the engagement will become WVR.