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Amidst threats, Seoul eyes defence budget hike

South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) has requested a record defence budget of KRW43.7 trillion ($38.7 billion) for next year. Although yet to be approved, this figure represents an 8.4% increase compared to the 2017 budget.

There is an 11.6% rise (rising to $12.1 billion) on equipment, including the expensive blue ribbon Korea Air and Missile Defence (

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) system and the Kill Chain preemptive strike project.

A lot of the intended budget increase will also go towards the payroll, with President Moon Jae-in promising in his election campaign that he would gradually raise the country’s minimum wage by 50%. All able-bodied males are required to complete between 21 and 24 months of conscription, depending on the military service.

Previous defence budgets have averaged a 5% year-on-year increase. Last year the budget increased only 3.6%, despite the MND requesting a 5.3% increase.
The proposed budget increase is also in line with the Mid-Term Defense Program 2017-21, which is valued at KRW226.5 trillion. If this figure is to remain feasible, the average annual growth rate of the budget must equal at least 5%.

On 11 January, the MND released a full version of its 2016 Defence White Paper, and it listed the usual matrix of threats such as North Korea, China and Japan.

‘The "Asia Paradox" phenomenon, in which deepening economic interdependence is not matched by a commensurate level of cooperation in the security field, still lingers in Northeast Asia. Northeast Asian countries are building up their military strength in an attempt to achieve military superiority and increase their clout in the region,' the document lamented.

It predicted that this Asia Paradox is expected to linger ‘for the foreseeable future’, although ‘how US-China relations develop in the near future may be the determining factor for the security order and stability in the region'.

The white paper noted that when American and Chinese ‘core national interests clash, this could exacerbate the discord between the two countries, affecting the security environment in the region’
North Korea, of course, is cited in the White Paper as the severest threat.

‘The continuing provocations by the North, in the form of developing WMDs such as nuclear capabilities and ballistic missiles, expanding its conventional forces, carrying out armed provocations in contact areas, conducting cyber attacks and small-sized drone infiltrations, are serious threats to regional stability in Northeast Asia as well as global peace.’

The MND predicted that Pyongyang would ‘continue with its rhetorical threats and escalation of military tensions, while shifting the blame for the worsening of inter-Korean relations to the South’.

To meet Pyongyang’s threat, the MND has implemented a new national defence vision that it calls ‘advanced military elite’.

‘The combined term "advanced elite military" means a military that is elite, advanced and has the posture and capability to fight against the enemy and win,’ it explained.

North Korea maintains a military force of 1.28 million regulars, plus 7.62 million reservists are ready for call-up. This strength compares with a current figure of 625,000 in the Republic of Korea (ROK) Armed Forces plus 2.75 million reservists as of September 2016.

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manqiangrexue said:

They aren't pulling those 2 back immediately so as to not piss of the US too much. Moon never wanted THAAD, any part of it. The reason THAAD moved so quickly was because the corrupt jailed woman knew that THAAD could never be deployed under the new government so she rushed it to try to force Moon's hand. If the new government wanted the other 4, the easiest thing to do would be to pretend they never found out about them being smuggled into Korea without the president's permission and let them get set up. After that, Moon can even blame those who tricked him and say they're already there so he'll have to honor them like the other 2. But he didn't do that; he stopped them as forcefully as he could. And if they are set up in the future, it will be refreshing the issue all over, except this time, the responsibility will be on Moon and then he'll have no one to blame when China holds him responsible. China wouldn't let it "cool off"; that's for sure. If they wanted to deploy THAAD, the best time is now while there's momentum and a scapegoat already in jail for it. But they decided to put a full stop instead and that shows me that they're looking for a 180 on the issue. It's pretty clear that the environmental study is meant to buy time so Moon can talk to China, ensure that the removal of the final 2 would guarantee South Korean businesses are again left to flourish in China. Then the study would find some reason to conclude in requiring THAAD to be completely removed. That's my take.

Let's see how it goes.

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taxiya said:

One possibility is as you said, Moon is preparing for a turn by making the 4 public and eventually get rid of the 2.

Another possibility (from the look of today) could be that, Moon is trying to cut a bargain or compromise with China by saying "hey, I have stopped the 4, let me keep the 2, that's all what I can do."

Moon himself could be wanting the first possibility considering the Chinese market for SK and his history of being the protege of Roh Moo-hyun. But by doing so he will get a huge pressure. Last time Roh killed himself when he tried and failed, this time the situation may not be that harsh for Moon as the power balance of China-SK-US has changed a lot since Roh's time, but it won't be easy. I am not so sure if the condition for Moon's possible turn is here yet.

What China is going to do (from my observation of Xi) is to keep the same stance unchanged, regardless what Moon want to or saying, sincerely or not.

We shall see, it is an interesting time that we are living in and witnessing.

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manqiangrexue said:

The thing about compromising is that you need to make sure your compromise is almost as good as getting their way on both sides instead of almost as bad as getting nothing for both. To keep 2 units while rejecting the other 4 would seem like a good compromise superficially but it reminds me of a situation in the famous Chinese story Shanghai Tan. When a gangster was tasked by his boss to kill his own friend, he decided to walk a middle line and instead cut off his friend's finger to give back to his boss. This resulted in both his boss being furious at his insubordination and his friend's grudge against him that would eventually get him killed in the series. When I watched this scene with my father, he said, "Don't do stupid shit like that. In this situation, you either let your friend go and say you couldn't find him or you kill him and bring his corpse to your boss. Had he done either, he'd have survived in the end." This is exactly that situation. Telling the Americans that they'd reject 4 out of the 6 launchers already moved into South Korea is almost as big a slap in the face as telling them to remove THAAD completely. Yet keeping 2 radars pointed at China instead of 6, to the Chinese, is almost as bad as keeping the full THAAD system. If Moon truly wanted to compromise like this, he's just going to anger both sides instead of appeasing either. I can tell you right now, with 2 still in place, China's not going to budge its sanctions one inch.

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Jura said:

Yesterday at 8:41 PM

now
US Lawmaker Chastises South Korea for Suspending THAAD

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The two U.S. THAAD launchers in place on a South Korean golf course will work against the North Korean missile threat but would work a lot better with a full battery of six launchers, according to Pentagon officials.

“We still think it’s very important to have a full battery there,” a Pentagon spokesman said Friday. He said the two launchers are “operational and can intercept North Korean missiles,” but “the full THAAD battery is necessary to respond to the North Korean threat.”

The spokesman declined to say whether the components for the full battery are already in South Korea and waiting for clearance from the Seoul government to be moved to the golf course. “We’re not going to talk about parts and equipment,” he said.

Last week, the new South Korean government of President Moon Jae-in suspended deployment of the additional four launchers of the Lockheed Martin-made Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system on a former golf course in Seongju province about 130 miles south of Seoul, citing environmental concerns.

The government gave no timeline on when an environmental study would be ready, but said deployment of the four launchers had been halted until “a full-blown environmental impact assessment is completed.”

During the election campaign, Moon suggested the THAAD deployment could be an obstacle to renewing talks with North Korea and said decisions about its future should be put to a vote by parliament.

China has also been vehemently opposed to the THAAD deployment over concerns the system’s powerful X-band radars could be used to spy on its own defense and nuclear systems.

Last week,

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Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told a Senate subcommittee the THAAD system is vital to protecting South Korea’s people and the 28,000 U.S. troops in South Korea against the expanding missile threat from the North.

Milley was optimistic that the full battery eventually would be deployed despite the environmental study. “We’ll work through it and, at the end of the day, I think the Republic of Korea will be properly supported by the United States,” he said.

On Monday, North Korea said recent acts by the Moon government, including the THAAD deployment, had cast doubt on the possibility of reviving a 2000 agreement on a summit between North and South Korea.

The North’s propaganda outlet, the Korean Central News Agency, said of Moon’s government, “It is doing such a stupid act, oblivious of the lesson taught by history. Its succession to the anachronistic confrontation policy against the nation will only make it face stern punishment.”

In April, U.S. President Donald Trump rattled the Seoul government by saying that South Korea

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for placement of the hit-to-kill THAAD system. His national security adviser, Army Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, later backed off the demand but said Trump expects allies to contribute more for mutual defense.

In an interview on the CBS News program, “60 Minutes” with correspondent Bill Whitaker, Army Gen. Vincent Brooks warned that if the North were to use nuclear weapons, “It will be met with an effective and overwhelming response.”

He added, “They can take it to the bank.”

When Whitaker asked whether that meant wiping North Korea off the map, Brooks responded, “Whatever overwhelms you.”

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A suspected North Korean drone photographed a U.S. missile defense system in South Korea before it crashed near the border where it was found last week, Seoul's Defense Ministry said Tuesday.

The finding came four days after North Korea tested new anti-ship missiles in a continuation of weapons launches that have complicated new South Korean President Moon Jae-in's push to improve ties frayed over the North's nuclear ambitions.

Meanwhile, South Korea's military said a North Korean soldier walked across the heavily mined border between the countries and defected to the South. The Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement that the soldier was being questioned about the reasons for his defection.

The drone was found in a South Korean border town last Friday and South Korean investigators have discovered hundreds of photos in its Sony-made camera, a Defense Ministry official said, requesting anonymity because of department rules.

Ten of the photos were of U.S. missile launchers and a radar system installed in the southeastern town of Seongju earlier this year, while the rest were mostly of residential areas, agricultural fields and other less-sensitive areas in South Korea, the official said.

Under a deal with Moon's conservative predecessor, the United States deployed key components of the so-called Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system this spring to cope with a potential North Korean nuclear threat. North Korea called the system a provocation aimed at bolstering U.S. military hegemony in the region. China also opposes the deployment because it worries that THAAD's powerful radar system can peer into its own territory.

The drone was believed to have crashed because it ran short of fuel while returning to North Korea. The official said more analysis was being conducted, including trying to determine if the drone had already transmitted the 10 photos of the THAAD site.

North Korea has touted its drone program in recent years, and South Korean officials believe its military has about 300 drones. In 2014, several suspected North Korean drones were found south of the border. Experts said they were low-tech but could be considered a potential security threat.

The drone found last week has twin engines and flew farther than those discovered in 2014, which had single engines, the Defense Ministry said, suggesting that North Korea is pushing to upgrade its drone arsenal.

South Korean officials said the drones found in 2014 also were equipped with Japanese-made cameras and photographed South Korea's presidential Blue House and other areas. Those drones were unable to transmit photos in real time, investigators concluded.

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Jura said:

Friday at 10:15 AM

and
US Presses South Korea to Deploy Full THAAD Battery

source is DefenseTech

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Jura said:

Friday at 10:15 AM

and
US Presses South Korea to Deploy Full THAAD Battery

source is DefenseTech

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The US military is working on a “way ahead” for the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile system after South Korea last week halted the deployment of the system to the country. Defense Secretary James Mattis, in a Senate Appropriations Committee defense panel hearing Wednesday, said the Pentagon is “trying to resolve this, so we have clarity on the way ahead.” New South Korean President Moon Jae-in is visiting Washington, D.C., later this month, and Mattis said that visit will be a way for US officials to assuage South Korean concerns about the THAAD deployment. South Korea’s new government suspended the deployment of the system last week, after two launchers had been deployed, until an environmental impact assessment is completed. The US planned to deploy a total of six launchers to South Korea. Moon, during the South Korean election campaign, called for the system to be halted,

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reported. The Pentagon had negotiated with South Korea for years to deploy the system as a step to counter increased missile testing by North Korea and to protect US and South Korean forces.

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Jura said:

Tuesday at 7:35 AM
the story goes on:
Pentagon Determined to Continue THAAD Deployment in South Korea

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