South Korea dispatches 20 gunboats to disputed islands

DPRKUnderground said:

That goes for the Senkaku Islands too. Japanese imperialism and ultra-nationalism is gaining ground. The Conservatives are winning the elections in Japan and is fueling the movement.

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The LDP has been winning elections in Japan for decades! But the reason they've been doing so recently is because:

a) the opposition lacks credibility (or indeed policy)
b) Koizumi has successfully championed himself as a reformer

Nationalism has nothing to do with it. I was in Tokyo at the weekend (at the end of a stint in Japan). There was one of those cute lil' nationalist vans with the flag and some bloke blathering on about this and that. Not one person had stopped to listen to what he had to say. When I pulled a face at him (I just couldn't resist it), I was not swamped by people in sunglasses and bundled into an unmarked van, or even harassed by angry passersby. All I got was a laugh from my Japanese friend. The guy in question looked at me, not knowing what to do, and then continued after a bit.

Imperialism and ultra-nationalism does not have anything like a serious influence on modern Japanese society. It is no different from the "China threat" story being pushed in the US. Anyone who knows the Far East also knows that nationalism (and racism) is worse in South Korea and China than Japan, though not necessarily both factors in each country.

The key to stopping this is make the public in the west aware fo Japanese atrocities in WWII. I've heard so much stuff about the atomic bombs and how bad it was. But I never hear about the Rape of Nanjing. Not trying to start a flame war with a Japanese person. Just saying the public should be aware.

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Most people are not aware of the Armenian massacres, what went on in the Balkans, etc. Hell, do they even know about Chechnya and Darfur? But even when I've met people who know about what you mention, it doesn't really change their view of Japan or the Japanese people. We still get a fair amount of stuff about the Nazis, but despite bitching from the German media we don't actually care that much. We've moved on and to be honest we're not impressed by the way Chinese and Koreans are still banging on about things that happened 60+ years ago. One guy I met who used to live in Suzhou said that he thought the Japanese could apologise in any way - and its critics would still say it wasn't enough. And to be honest I'm starting to think the same thing myself.

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As to the event in question, what were the South Koreans planning to do? Board and/or attack unarmed ships in international waters? If they want to sabotage relations with Japan and boost the platform of the ultra-nationalists there then that would be the best way of doing it! Personally I think the bickering between China/South Korea and Japan over tiny rocks really does none of those countries any good in anyone's eyes. They should just grow up and stop thinking with their "lower brains".

Finn, you forgot to outline every Japanese embassy in Asia country who has felt Japan damage during WW2 is going to get masses protest to dounece it imperialism, and it going get ugly in some country and if Japanese draw first fire in any incident, I would be suprise if another Asia country jump in, in the name of protecting SK from a Japanese invasion and it imperialism.

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I think Taiwan and China could jump in, especially if the KMT gets some good political control in Taiwan. China would support a Taiwanese seizure of the Senkaku Islands with the PLAAF while giving South Korea AWACS and bomber support. There'd likely also be funds pooring in from private groups and governments in Asia.

Anyway I dout that the JMSDF would win, it become a stalemate the SK Navy is not just going be there sitting duck, the Airforce would be in the air within minute of any incidents, there is going be heavy casualties both side but no one going gain more ground. I would also wonder what would NK do and possible China although it does have it non-interferen

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China would likely lend support, such as giving South Korea information on Japanese sorties and other such activities.

The real question is if sustained incursions like this will bring the two into conflict and lead to closening ties with China.

Vlad Plasmius said:

I think Taiwan and China could jump in, especially if the KMT gets some good political control in Taiwan. China would support a Taiwanese seizure of the Senkaku Islands with the PLAAF while giving South Korea AWACS and bomber support. There'd likely also be funds pooring in from private groups and governments in Asia.

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I know that the South would probably receieve much international support, but I don't think that China would rock the boat like that. If the Chinese attack Japan the US will get involved. And when the US gets involved, the war will end fast, because both South Korea and Japan need America much more than they need a few islands, no matter how many fish swim around them, or even if there is oil down there. I also highly doubt that China and Taiwan are going to suddenly get over their differences and go to war with Japan together.

All in all, no matter what happens, this would be a very embarassing situation for the US. It would show that Asian nations that are as closely allied to the US as South Korea and Japan are acting on their own in ways that are completely the opposite of what the US wants them too. It would mark the day that Asian nations need and cared about each other more than America, and when that day comes, I think that the US is finished as an unchallenged superpower.

Most people are not aware of the Armenian massacres, what went on in the Balkans, etc. Hell, do they even know about Chechnya and Darfur? But even when I've met people who know about what you mention, it doesn't really change their view of Japan or the Japanese people. We still get a fair amount of stuff about the Nazis, but despite bitching from the German media we don't actually care that much. We've moved on and to be honest we're not impressed by the way Chinese and Koreans are still banging on about things that happened 60+ years ago. One guy I met who used to live in Suzhou said that he thought the Japanese could apologise in any way - and its critics would still say it wasn't enough. And to be honest I'm starting to think the same thing myself.

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FuManChu where are u from. Well I just wanna tell you there is a lot of thing you can't talk about if you dun know what going on. I am not trying to get personally or anything.

But my grandma almost lost here whole family to the Japanese she and her older sister was the only survivor out of a extend family of over 100 people. That not something you forget in 60 years. I can still remenber story that she used to tell me.

Finn is right. China isn't going to get involved with such a conflict, other than to bang the tub and perhaps seize the Senkakus. And there is no way China and Taiwan would co-operate - even the KMT is suspicious of the mainland, despite the propaganda about cross-Strait relations.

As to international support, that would depend on who fired first/"declared war" first, etc. Certainly SK would have been in the dog house over attacking unarmed ships in international waters.

But regardless it would be South Korea versus Japan solely. With such a conflict I doubt very much that SK could "win" - it might force a stalemate with neither side willing to start a full-blown war, but that would be it.

EDIT:

To Popeye - Aye-aye, sir! Sorry for wandering off topic earlier.
To Nethappy - I have Chinese friends that also suffered greatly during the war, but do not hold a grudge against Japan or the Japanese. This isn't the place to discuss such things, as Popeye has rightly reminded us, so let's not get the mods involved by continuing the discussion.

bd popeye said:

You gentlemen need to cease the political discussion and refer only to the possible military operations that may occur. Not the political ramifacations of what may occur or past Japanese misconduct.You all have been warned.

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Okee Dokee! I think the nig question here is, what will the rest of East Asia do militarily? Will they enter the conflict, or would they just lend political support? A coalition task force of many East Asian countries should be formed to protect their interests from Japan.

DPRKUnderground said:

Okee Dokee! I think the nig question here is, what will the rest of East Asia do militarily? Will they enter the conflict, or would they just lend political support? A coalition task force of many East Asian countries should be formed to protect their interests from Japan.

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Why would they do anything? Japan is still the number 1 economic power in Asia, so why would they risk their links with it? These are, after all, a few piddly small rocks of no real value to anyone. They would leave South Korea and Japan to it - at most there would be criticism if one party randomly provoked the other to a necessary response.

You seem to have this obsession with everyone uniting against Japan. I can promise you that won't happen, unless we return to the 1930s and it's clear they're going to be attacked (again). A minor dispute does not equate to a full-scale conquest of Asia. If China and South Korea could see that then relations with Japan wouldn't be so bad, and the chances of military conflict would disappear. Unfortunately by deluding themselves into thinking such disputes mean anything they make such a confrontation a possibility.

Delete.

I think the best chances are at this being largerly a small-scale military conflict like the one between China and South Vietnam. However, I think it is possible for it to expand a little.

I doubt we'll see Chinese or Taiwanese destroyers getting close ot the islands, but either nation or both nations may take efforts to support South Korea.