South Korea dispatches 20 gunboats to disputed islands

if there is shooting...i think US will lean more towards the japanese side...cuz in my opinion.....japan is more of a import ally to US then korea in order to contain china

I agree with most of what you guys said. I believe that the likelihood of this going to a shooting war is highly unlikely. I just threw in the China thing to make it more interesting. Basically, it is nationalistic bluster, and the Japanese will probably back down first. This is because to them it is simply a rock outcropping that it would be nice to hav, and they are angry and SK for being so indignant about it. But to South Korea, it is much more. It is seen as part of Japanese WWII imperialism, which the Koreans are still very bitter about. It is almost as if the honor that they lost in WWII and regained through economic power and prosperity is being challenged again by the same country. So it means much more to the South Koreans.

But the JMSDF would take to South Korean Navy. Hands down. They have much more advanced ships (Kongo class, to name one), the best sub fleet in Asia, and an Air Force with F-15s. Not to mention the fact that they train with the USN a lot.

The JASDF doesn't have all of it's F-2s in service, and the F-2 sucks anyway. The F-15J is the only plane that poses a threat to the ROKAF. South Korea holds 153 F-16s, 130 F-4s, and 185 F-5s. The JASDF had 100 F-15s, 79 Combat F-4s (They have over 30 recon versions), and There are supposed to be 130 F-2s, but production is supposed to be slated down to 80. South Korea has the better Air Force! Japan definitely has the better Navy. But the ROKN can pack a lot of punch and will cause major damage. And the two ground forces. That's pretty obvious.

China and South Korea does team up politically against Japan right now. it is not an alliance, rather they just happens to have a common stand against an overly-nationalistic administration. let call it 'luck'.

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i an guessing Japan is maintaining the confrontation to create a need for them to normalize from being a defeated country. it would be a matter of time before fear set into the japanese public that they need to militarize again, allowing the government to make what seem taboo into a given. are there any encounter to my views that all this is just a plot to change japan's public opinion?

akinkhoo I agree with you.

The Japanese are deliberately, starting and maintaining a confrontation with surround power e.g China and SK. So it have creat a fear and a lose of face to the Japanese Public. Therefore it can gain public support to militarize again.

Nevertheless I like to point out Historically, these Island being disputed with China and SK were own by thier respective country. There were tooken over during WW2 and after the Japanese Defend they should be returned to their respective. Japan really dun have much ground for their agruement IMO.

Nethappy said:

akinkhoo I agree with you.

The Japanese are deliberately, starting and maintaining a confrontation with surround power e.g China and SK. So it have creat a fear and a lose of face to the Japanese Public. Therefore it can gain public support to militarize again.

Nevertheless I like to point out Historically, these Island being disputed with China and SK were own by thier respective country. There were tooken over during WW2 and after the Japanese Defend they should be returned to their respective. Japan really dun have much ground for their agruement IMO.

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That goes for the Senkaku Islands too. Japanese imperialism and ultra-nationalism is gaining ground. The Conservatives are winning the elections in Japan and is fueling the movement. The key to stopping this is make the public in the west aware fo Japanese atrocities in WWII. I've heard so much stuff about the atomic bombs and how bad it was. But I never hear about the Rape of Nanjing. Not trying to start a flame war with a Japanese person. Just saying the public should be aware.

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Basically this war would be short. This is how I think it would go.

Japan makes a provocative move (why would South Korea start the war? They are all ready are in poesscion of the islands.) Someone opens fire. Then the Japanese hit the South with subs they have lying in wait. The respective fleets sail out of port and fight in the Sea of Japan. The JMSDF wins, but takes heavy casualties. The war re-orients itself to be predomiantly an air war, as the South Koreans try to use their air force to delay or prevent a Japanese invasion of the islands. They attempt to reinforce the islands, and we may see something like to Belegrano incident in the Falkland Islands war, where a ship, like a troopship, is sunk by a sub (probably a Korean ship and a Japanese sub.), causing heavy casualties in a very "media visible" event Both sides would probably come to a stand still, and they would accept American mediation.

I think that that is a rough outline of how the war would go. That said, I don't think there would be a war in the first place.

I would say that this one event won't lead to war, but if the incidents continue things could get quite heated.

That goes for the Senkaku Islands too. Japanese imperialism and ultra-nationalism is gaining ground. The Conservatives are winning the elections in Japan and is fueling the movement. The key to stopping this is make the public in the west aware fo Japanese atrocities in WWII. I've heard so much stuff about the atomic bombs and how bad it was. But I never hear about the Rape of Nanjing. Not trying to start a flame war with a Japanese person. Just saying the public should be aware.

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I remenber back in high student we had a few Japan oversea student, these guy almost broke down in unbelievable during our history class. They really had no idea about Rape of Nanjing, and what the war was really about. This is from my own experiences also not trying to start a flame war with a japanese.

I really dun think Japanese would really do much apart from provocative with word and possibility of sending a few unarmed ship into the area. IMO, They should know that they are getting isloated by the rest of Asia. The more imperialism and ultra-nationalism they show the more isloated they are going to get.

Finn, you forgot to outline every Japanese embassy in Asia country who has felt Japan damage during WW2 is going to get masses protest to dounece it imperialism, and it going get ugly in some country and if Japanese draw first fire in any incident, I would be suprise if another Asia country jump in, in the name of protecting SK from a Japanese invasion and it imperialism. Another point is NK it nuclear issuse remain unsolve, it like add oil into fire.

Anyway I dout that the JMSDF would win, it become a stalemate the SK Navy is not just going be there sitting duck, the Airforce would be in the air within minute of any incidents, there is going be heavy casualties both side but no one going gain more ground. I would also wonder what would NK do and possible China although it does have it non-interference policy but toward Japan it made be a different matter cos this matter could help fuel nationalism in China it self.

Nethappy said:

Finn, you forgot to outline every Japanese embassy in Asia country who has felt Japan damage during WW2 is going to get masses protest to dounece it imperialism, and it going get ugly in some country and if Japanese draw first fire in any incident, I would be suprise if another Asia country jump in, in the name of protecting SK from a Japanese invasion and it imperialism. Another point is NK it nuclear issuse remain unsolve, it like add oil into fire.

Anyway I dout that the JMSDF would win, it become a stalemate the SK Navy is not just going be there sitting duck, the Airforce would be in the air within minute of any incidents, there is going be heavy casualties both side but no one going gain more ground. I would also wonder what would NK do and possible China although it does have it non-interference policy but toward Japan it made be a different matter cos this matter could help fuel nationalism in China it self.

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If there is a conflict between South Korea and Japan over Dokdo, the China can go in and grab Senkaku by denouncing Japanese imperialism and giving full political support to South Korea. Then blockade the islands. Don't let anything in or out. Starve them. Now if only China had a carrier. That would make the situation better for China. But Su-30s carry a lot fuel and I think AWACS can provide radar cover.