Islamic State support
Marawi and the surrounding areas in Mindanao province have long been a hotbed for Southeast Asian extremist groups. Moro groups and Abu Sayyaf, which has long-standing ties to the al Qaeda-backed Indonesian terrorist network Jemaah Islamiyah, have used the area’s island chains as a base of operations.
Most of the country’s Muslims live there, although they constitute just a fifth of the province’s population. Marawi, now described as a bullet-scarred ghost town, is almost entirely Muslim. The Red Cross estimates that the fighting has driven 300,000 people from their homes.
A massive government crackdown against the extremist groups, backed by U.S. forces attached to Operation Enduring Freedom-
in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks 16 years ago, drove the Moro terrorist groups to the negotiation table with
.
Maute group leader Isnilon Hapilon declared allegiance to the Islamic State in 2014 and was subsequently named the group’s “emir” in Southeast Asia. The assault on Marawi was reportedly triggered by a failed raid by the
and police on Hapilon’s base near the city.
The veracity and tenacity of the Maute group’s hold on Marawi are bolstered by an influx of advanced weaponry and combat-hardened Islamic State advisers — mostly from the Middle East and Chechnya — directed into the country by the group’s operational leadership in Syria.
“Through Hapilon, ISIS has provided an influx of supplies, ammunition, high-tech communications equipment and foreign fighters,” said Rory MacNeil, a research associate with the Australian National University’s Philippine Project. “By contrast, the [
] is poorly equipped and inexperienced in conducting urban counterinsurgency operations” since the majority of its counterterrorism operations experience is rooted in jungle warfare against small bands of insurgent forces, he said in an analysis of the Marawi operation.
Aside from operational support, the Maute group and other Islamic State affiliates in the region have adopted some of the terrorist group’s successful propaganda tactics, including the use of social media, to expand their reach in the region.
The Maute group “represents the next generation of Islamic extremism in Southeast Asia, with a leadership educated in Egypt and Jordan and ties to jihadist allies in both the Middle East and other parts of Southeast Asia,” said Geoffrey Hartman, a fellow in the Southeast Asia Program at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
But critics say the fact that the Marawi crisis was sparked by a failed attempt to capture Hapilon in a suspected safe house near Marawi is proof that the
is not up to the task.
“The whole siege began with a botched raid, and there is compelling evidence that the Maute group set a very effective ambush for them. Second, the [Philippine army] cannot claim to have been taken by surprise. The Maute group has besieged towns and cities twice in 2016. This is part of their playbook,” National War College professor Zachary Abuza, an analyst of Southeast Asian insurgencies, wrote in an op-ed for The Diplomat.
Mr. Duterte’s decision to funnel military funds and manpower into his crackdown on drug trafficking also has put the country’s counterterrorism operations at a disadvantage, Mr. Abuza said. Mr. Duterte “has made his war on drugs his priority issue, rather than domestic security, despite ample evidence of a rapidly deteriorating situation” in the country’s south.
While military analysts expect the combined might of Washington and
to eventually result in the battlefield defeat of the Maute group, the prolonged resistance in the city could be a major propaganda victory for the Islamic State.
The fight for Marawi “has already boosted the profile of these groups and made them more attractive to aspiring fighters, both foreign and domestic,” Mr. Hartman said. “This will make the challenge of stemming the flow of foreign fighters into
that much more difficult, putting a premium on boosting cooperation with neighboring countries like Indonesia and Malaysia.”
America’s ally
U.S. special operations forces in
have maintained a strictly advisory role in the Marawi offensive. Roughly 100 U.S. Marines and special operations forces based in Zamboanga, over 250 miles east of Marawi, have provided intelligence and logistics support to Philippine forces in Mindanao.
The small team of American troops represents one of the earliest U.S. counterterrorism operations launched in the wake of 9/11. At the height of Operation Enduring Freedom-
, over 400 task force members provided combat support to
’s efforts to quash groups such as Abu Sayyaf.
The Pentagon has denied claims that it is weighing whether to formally reinstitute the U.S. special operations task force in the southern
in the wake of the Marawi operation. The task force was officially shuttered in 2015. But since then, Washington has continued to funnel weapons and support to the
.
U.S. officials announced Monday that it had deployed a Gray Eagle unmanned surveillance aircraft over Marawi.
In February, the Pentagon approved a weapons deal with
, delivering over 400 grenade launchers, 85 sniper rifles and three RQ-11B Raven surveillance drones to Philippine forces based in Mindanao. Last month, Washington delivered a pair of Cessna 208B Grand Caravan intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft to the country’s air force as part of a $33 billion military aid package designed to bolster
’s counterterrorism capabilities.
But Philippine commanders say U.S. forces are already on the front lines in Marawi.
spokesman Brig. Gen. Restituto Padilla said in June that U.S. forces based in Zamboanga had “been moved to help ground forces in Marawi.” He declined to say how many American troops were in Marawi, only that they were “very few.”
“They are in Marawi but are not allowed to join combat,” he told reporters.
His comments were the first official confirmation of U.S. forces taking an active advisory role on the ground inside Marawi. On Friday, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said his country was willing to provide military support as well.
“We have a vital, vested interest in that ISIL insurgency being defeated,” Mr. Turnbull told reporters in Sydney.
