Vietnam’s Master Plan for the South China Sea
The country’s plan for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance is taking shape.
By Koh Swee Lean Collin
February 04, 2016
For many years, Vietnam has been steadily accumulating new military capabilities to reinvigorate its antiquated Cold War arsenal, sourcing from mostly Russia but increasingly from other suppliers too. However, military effectiveness clearly does not depend on only kinetic capabilities; the means of detecting, tracking and guiding weapons against the intended targets constitute another essential element. Cognizant of this, besides continuing to acquire new kinetic capabilities Hanoi has undertaken nascent but nonetheless crucial steps in establishing a comprehensive intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) suite.
It is through this context that one may interpret recent revelation about the potential military significance of an Indo-Vietnamese deal to establish a satellite tracking station in Ho Chi Minh City, and an earlier report last year about Vietnam’s new unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that will soon patrol the South China Sea (SCS).
An ISR Master Plan in the Offing?
Vietnam’s UAV and remote-sensing earth observation satellite programmes have often been emphasized for their utility in agriculture, disaster management and fishery management. At first glance, these initiatives correspond with general patterns observed in Southeast Asia – Indonesia (see here and here) and Singapore for example have active UAV programmes. As for earth observation satellites, Singapore launched TeLEOS-1, jointly designed by ST Electronics, Nanyang Technological University and Defence Science Organisation Laboratories in December 2015. The Philippines is also poised to launch the Diwata-1 earth observation microsatellite.
But such capabilities clearly have military applications, since they generate data that could be utilized for various purposes. Even though civilian satellites for instance may not possess the sort of capabilities possessed by their military counterparts, they may still fulfill less demanding military peacetime and wartime requirements. And some of such ostensibly civilian-purpose satellites demonstrate performance close to military specifications. TeLEOS-1 for example has a panchromatic resolution of 1 m (at nadir), which may generate militarily useful data. Indeed, the lines between civilian and military applications are often blurred in such dual-use technologies. This is especially true in the maritime domain.
In the recent years, there are signs of Vietnam implementing a strategy of establishing what can be deemed “maritime domain awareness” in the SCS. Notably, in February 2013, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) said that it would gradually modernize existing “marine environment and hydrometeorology observation stations” as well as build new ones in key maritime zones as part of a master plan to establish a marine resources and environment observation network of 35 such stations in total by 2020. This integrated network, a crucial part of a three-phase project developed by Vietnam Administration of Seas and Islands (VASI), will help improve national management of the seas and islands under Vietnam’s sovereignty and jurisdiction. Among various purposes, this network is designed with national defense in mind, thus giving an obvious strategic context to Vietnam’s ISR drive.
Therefore, it seems very likely that Vietnam’s ISR advances are at least partly in response to developments to date in the SCS, which has seen recurring tensions. Hanoi appears to also be matching Beijing’s moves, including the latter’s vision of creating a new HY-3 “constellation” of maritime surveillance satellites in 2019 which has, according to Lin Mingsen, deputy director of the National Satellite Ocean Application Service, “an important role in reinforcing China’s marine rights protection, marine law enforcement and supervision, management of its offshore waters and marine disaster relief and reduction.” This is not to overlook China’s steady development of military UAVs such as the Wing Loong I medium-altitude, long-endurance (MALE) drone, said to have entered mass production in 2015, the same year its enhanced successor Wing Loong II was unveiled.
With a long 3,444-kilometers coastline (not counting islands) and vast maritime zone including claims in the disputed SCS waters, Vietnam clearly needs a comprehensive ISR strategy to bolster maritime domain awareness and targeting in times of peace and war. Unlike its acquisition of “big ticket” military kinetic capabilities, such as Su-30MK2 fighter jets and Kilo-class submarines, Vietnam’s discrete ISR-related projects have until now managed to evade much public attention while progressing steadily in the shadows.
Earth Observation Satellites for Civilian Purposes?
Space-based ISR capabilities, often couched within the ambit of civilian-sounding “earth observation satellite” development, constitute a key facet of Vietnam’s ISR quest. It started with the “Strategy for Research and Application of Space Technology of Vietnam until 2020” approved in June 2006 with a $2 billion investment. Less than year later, the Space Technology Institute (STI) was created to undertake space science and technology research, which appeared to focus on innocuously civilian applications. Vice-chairman of the Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology (VAST), Nguyen Dinh Cong, said that Strategy called for the indigenous development of small earth observation satellites.
But there is clearly a military intent; back in December 2008, Chairman of the National Research Programme on Space Science and Technology Nguyen Khoa Son said that “If we have our own satellite, we can respond more promptly to natural disasters and be more active in defence and security activities.” Also, the Vietnam Space Committee, established in 2010 and tasked to advise the prime minister on implementing the space strategy, was enhanced in January 2013 to comprise representatives from various national agencies, notably the Defense Ministry.
Towards this aim, typical of many emerging satellite aspirants, Vietnam first started out with communications satellites. After some delay, it launched VINASAT-1 in April 2008, followed by VINASAT-2 in May 2012. The Vietnamese proved to be quick learners. Lockheed Martin, contractor for both VINASATs, praised Vietnamese engineers for their ability to master the skills of controlling the satellites. Indeed, Lockheed Martin handed over control of VINASAT-2 to Vietnamese authorities in July 2012, two months after satellite was launched. This was half the time taken for VINASAT-1, the control of which has relinquished to Hanoi in August 2008 – thereby demonstrating a certain level of Vietnamese technical mastery.
But Vietnam faces a much steeper learning curve as it progresses into the remote-sensing arena. In July 2012, Vietnam launched its first indigenous earth observation satellite, the F-1, designed by the Space Research Division (FSpace) of FPT Technology University. It measures 10 x 10 x 10 cm, weighs just 1 kg and is capable of taking low resolution (640×480) pictures. Vu Trong Thu, Head of FSpace, said that Vietnam aims to master space technology for various purposes, including SCS surveillance – thus hinting at the F-1’s ISR role. But this microsatellite failed to transmit signals back to Earth, possibly because of battery problems.
Nonetheless, this setback did not stymie Vietnam’s ambitions to wean itself of reliance on foreign-sourced remote-sensing data which has to be acquired “at a huge cost,” according to Pham Anh Tuan, Director of the Vietnam National Satellite Center (VNSC). During an interview in March 2015, Pham explained: “Currently, to produce a satellite photo, Vietnam has to order it in advance, and will only receive the image two days later. In fact, on several occasions Vietnam has not been able to receive the photos it needed on time. However, if we have our own satellites and a space center, everything can be done within 6-12 hours, including taking photos and processing data.”
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