South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
International law does not differentiate between military and non military FON. I think it is a Chinese concept that has limited acceptance besides maybe Brazil and some minor nations.

Yes, and because only a the historically weaker, less powerful groups in a community believe in something compared to the more powerful groups in a community who do not, that reflects that the present state of a law is equitable and just and requires no change.

Lol -- I'm just joking, I'm not trying to make any moral arguments here, I'm just pointing out that there is a credible difference in opinion regarding the nature of FON in the international community, and any discussions about FON should acknowledge this difference.


The US would not claim innocent passage because it defeats the point of FON. The Chinese might downplay the incident and publicly views the transit as innocent passage (maybe citing the Aleution Islands incident) with both sides sticking to the script. In this way, both can claim their own victory.

Sure, maybe.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
FON is not about US primacy and coupling it is misleading regarding US intentions. FON is a fundamental right associated with law of the sea and is a well established principle even before US ascendency. Global prosperity and trade has been undergirded by countries generally respecting this principle. The US is vocal over it especially since UNCLOS and the introduction of EEZ has made it a point to ensure FON continues to be respected.
Au contraire mon ami, US insistence of FON is indeed a part US primacy in Asia. Consider China no longer accepts US primacy as basis of the Asian security order, and is now challenging it. How do we know that? China announced it to the world; that's what "new model of major country relations" is all about. Beijing no longer accepts the old model, where US made the rules and lead the region.

Since China isn't strong enough to push US out of Asia, it's doing the next best thing, which is chip away at US credibility in the region. China gains by planting doubts that US can't be counted on to provide security the way it has since WWII. If US doesn't or can't continue FON, after its admirals said it would, then the region might see that as US unwillingness to risk conflicts with China. The result is less credibility of US to continue Pax Americana in the region.

That's why, in this case, FON is indeed about US primacy.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
The US would not claim innocent passage because it defeats the point of FON. The Chinese might downplay the incident and publicly views the transit as innocent passage (maybe citing the Aleution Islands incident) with both sides sticking to the script. In this way, both can claim their own victory.
This is also a possibility.
 

joshuatree

Captain
International law does not differentiate between military and non military FON. I think it is a Chinese concept that has limited acceptance besides maybe Brazil and some minor nations.

It isn't specifically a Chinese concept but an ambiguity created by UNCLOS which enables different interpretations. To many maritime powers, FON means their military can sail through EEZs and conduct military surveillance. To many coastal states, the interpretation is sailing through yes, conducting military surveillance no. Even then, there are slight variations among states on both camps. However, both sides of the camp view the 12nm territorial sea along similar lines, and that would be strictly innocent passage.

Regarding the USN plan to sail within 12nm, what features they sail too and what they do at respective feature will signify a lot. We've already seen pics of a 054A shadowing a LCS in the SCS. No crisis came of it. Since PLAN sailed within 12nm of the Aleutians, it will more than likely just shadow the USN if it simply sails within 12nm of the Spratly features. Some verbal consternation and that's it. Now, if the USN starts conducting military surveillance within 12nm, then it means a couple of things. 1), the USN will consider that feature as not entitled to a 12nm territorial sea because the USN makes it a point to not conduct surveillance within 12nm, their basis for argument in the past confrontations off the coast of China. And 2) it can be another clash of coastal state interpretation of FON vs maritime power interpretation because China can view that as again, USN military surveillance in another's EEZ (Taiping's potential EEZ).
 

Brumby

Major
It isn't specifically a Chinese concept but an ambiguity created by UNCLOS which enables different interpretations. To many maritime powers, FON means their military can sail through EEZs and conduct military surveillance. To many coastal states, the interpretation is sailing through yes, conducting military surveillance no. Even then, there are slight variations among states on both camps. However, both sides of the camp view the 12nm territorial sea along similar lines, and that would be strictly innocent passage.

Regarding the USN plan to sail within 12nm, what features they sail too and what they do at respective feature will signify a lot. We've already seen pics of a 054A shadowing a LCS in the SCS. No crisis came of it. Since PLAN sailed within 12nm of the Aleutians, it will more than likely just shadow the USN if it simply sails within 12nm of the Spratly features. Some verbal consternation and that's it. Now, if the USN starts conducting military surveillance within 12nm, then it means a couple of things. 1), the USN will consider that feature as not entitled to a 12nm territorial sea because the USN makes it a point to not conduct surveillance within 12nm, their basis for argument in the past confrontations off the coast of China. And 2) it can be another clash of coastal state interpretation of FON vs maritime power interpretation because China can view that as again, USN military surveillance in another's EEZ (Taiping's potential EEZ).

The EEZ as sui generis and the legal ramifications of what it means had been extensively discussed before on this thread and I would rather not repeat it. The Chinese sensitivity over surveillance off the Chinese coast/Hainan island is understandable because of the submarine facility. It is a very different issue to that of FON in the SCS.

The FON passage is simply unhindered passage. Seriously what surveillance can the US hope to achieve inside the 12 nm over some man made islands that it can't achieve via some other means?
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
The FON passage is simply unhindered passage. Seriously what surveillance can the US hope to achieve inside the 12 nm over some man made islands that it can't achieve via some other means?
Cheap political bravado points. To ensure that their vassal states are safe and sound under the US welfare arms systems even if the reality doesn't reflect that.;)
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
US FON tour within 12-miles of artificial islands is the right thing to do, but I hope the DoD routes them through non-Chinese ones first as PR to the world the move isn't only directed at Beijing, but at anyone and everyone with artificial structures and islands. It doesn't hurt to send a plane or an Arleigh Burk near Japan's artificial structure in the ECS as fig leaf to show unbiased enforcement of international maritime laws. This one has trouble written all over it, and I hope both Xi and Obama keep their hotheads tightly leashed.

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BEIJING — The United States has been briefing its allies in Asia on plans to conduct “freedom of navigation” naval patrols near artificial islands built by China in the disputed South China Sea, a move that could escalate tensions with Beijing after President Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Washington, American and Asian officials have said.

The patrols, which would come within 12 nautical miles of at least one of the islands, are intended to challenge China’s efforts to claim large parts of the strategic waterway by enlarging rocks and submerged reefs into islands big enough for military airstrips, radar equipment and lodging for soldiers, the officials said.

Though China claims much of the South China Sea as sovereign territory, the 12-mile zone around the new islands is particularly delicate because international law says such artificial islands do not have sovereign rights up to the 12-mile limit.

The United States has refrained from venturing that close to Chinese-occupied islands in the South China Sea since at least 2012. In May, a United States Navy P8-A Poseidon aircraft, with a CNN correspondent on board, flew near three of China’s five artificial islands but did not go within their 12-mile territorial zones. The Americans were warned eight times to leave the area by Chinese Navy radio operators.

China has been feverishly piling sand onto reefs in the South China Sea for the past year, creating seven new islets in the region. It is straining geopolitical tensions that were already taut.

Officials in the Philippines said they had been told of the decision on the planned patrols in the last several days, and Senator Antonio F. Trillanes IV, chairman of the national defense and security committee, said on Monday that he welcomed the policy shift.

The United States secretary of defense, Ashton B. Carter, and the secretary of state, John Kerry, were scheduled to meet with their counterparts from Australia, one of the United States’ closest allies, on Monday and Tuesday in Boston, where the patrols were to be discussed.

The head of the United States Pacific Command, Adm. Harry B. Harris Jr., an outspoken proponent of freedom of navigation patrols whom the White House asked several months ago to offer options for how the United States should respond to the Chinese actions in the South China Sea, was also scheduled to attend the meetings.

The senior adviser on China at the National Security Council, Daniel Kritenbrink, told a gathering of American analysts of the region at a meeting in Washington after Mr. Xi left the United States that the White House had decided to proceed with the patrols close to the artificial islands, according to a participant who requested anonymity to discuss a closed-door briefing.

The White House and the Pentagon, which had been pushing for the patrols, were now on the same page, Mr. Kritenbrink said, according to the participant.

Mr. Kritenbrink did not specify when the patrols would take place, but he suggested that they had been delayed so as not to disrupt Mr. Xi’s visit, the participant said.

The Obama administration and America’s allies in Asia have debated at length over how best to respond to China’s moves in the South China Sea, with some urging such patrols to push back against Beijing and others fearful that the Chinese might use the patrols as justification for some further military buildup.

The Chinese have indicated that they will respond to American warships entering the 12-mile territorial waters around the artificial islands, essentially saying they could not ignore them.

“There is no way for us to condone infringement of China’s territorial sea and airspace by any country under the pretext of maintaining the freedom of navigation and overflight,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Friday. China was “severely concerned” about reports that the United States planned patrols around the artificial islands in the Spratly archipelago, the ministry’s spokeswoman, Hua Chunying, said. Five other governments also make territorial claims in those waters.

During a news conference with President Obama at the White House, Mr. Xi said that China had no intention of militarizing islands in the South China Sea. But exactly what Mr. Xi meant was unclear, American officials said, because he had not said anything like that in the private meetings with Mr. Obama and his senior aides.

One purpose of the patrols would be to test Mr. Xi’s statement, a United States military official said.

At the news conference with Mr. Xi, Mr. Obama emphasized the importance of freedom of navigation, saying, “the United States will continue to sail, fly and operate anywhere that international law allows.”

The assistant secretary of defense for Asia, David B. Shear, recently told Congress that the United States had conducted freedom of navigation patrols in the past but had not gone inside the 12-mile territorial waters of islands claimed by China since 2012. Mr. Shear did not indicate why.

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea recognizes 12-mile territorial limits on naturally formed islands but does not recognize such limits on submerged reefs that have been built by land reclamation into above-the-waterline islands.

The Chinese have recently built five such islands in the Spratly archipelago. On Fiery Cross Reef, they have completed a 10,000-foot runway capable of accommodating fighter jets.

The new Australian prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, would be less inclined to support the patrols than his more hawkish predecessor, Tony Abbott, said Hugh White, a defense analyst. Mr. Turnbull called China’s island-building “counterproductive” before he took office last month, but he is likely to be cautious about confronting China, Mr. White said.

In Manila, Mr. Trillanes said that the patrols should move ahead. “It can break the stalemate,” he said in a telephone interview. “It’s quite risky, but we need to know right now to what extent China is willing to go in order to defend these newly created islands.”

Mr. Trillanes said he was not concerned that such a move might increase the likelihood of conflict in the region. “The United States has done the math, and they wouldn’t do this if tensions would escalate beyond what they would expect,” he said.

Albert F. del Rosario, the Philippine secretary of foreign affairs, said that sending American ships within 12 miles of the islands would help maintain stability in the region.

“Failure to challenge false claims of sovereignty would undermine this order and lead China to the false conclusion that its claims are accepted as a fait accompli,” Mr. del Rosario said in a statement.

But other countries have seemed less receptive about the idea of aggressive action by the Americans, worried it might inflame tensions in the region.

In an interview in August, Ng Eng Hen, the Singaporean defense minister, said the United States had a right to protect its interests in the region. But when asked whether it should patrol close to the shores of the islands built by China, he said: “We urge caution on all sides. It does no good for the region if there are incidents.”

The United States has several options as to what kind of ships to send on the patrols, and the type of vessel will indicate how big a statement it wants to make, said James Hardy, the Asia-Pacific editor of IHS Jane’s Defense Weekly.

The minimum option would be to send a littoral combat ship that works close to shore and has been used in the past for such patrols, Mr. Hardy said. The United States could also send an Arleigh Burke class destroyer accompanied by a couple of smaller ships, thus sending a firmer message, he said.

The Chinese would also have several choices of how to respond, Mr. Hardy said. They could buzz American ships with aircraft or helicopters or target them with radars as they have Japanese vessels in the East China Sea, he said. Other options would include deploying Coast Guard vessels to shadow the United States Navy ships or using fishing vessels to get in the way of the patrols.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Guys, let's just wait and see what happens at this point.

The US has "announced," that it intends to do this. They did this for a reason. They do not want, and they believe China does not want, any miscalculation.

I believe a US Freedom class, or perhaps a Burke...or maybe both, will sail past just as they did a month or two ago. Only this time a little closer.

I believe the PLAN will do exactly what they did last time. Ie:

LCS-Type054A-01.jpg

LCS-Type054A-02.jpg
PLAN Type 054A FFG following USS Ft. Worth, LCS-3, in the South China Sea​

IMHO, the US will announce it asserted FON. The Chinese will broadcast to the US Navy (as they did to the P-8s) warnings, and they will announce they they warned the US Navy.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Guys, let's just wait and see what happens at this point.

The US has "announced," that it intends to do this. They did this for a reason. They do not want, and they believe China does not want, any miscalculation.

I believe a US Freedom class, or perhaps a Burke...or maybe both, will sail past just as they did a month or two ago. Only this time a little closer.

I believe the PLAN will do exactly what they did last time. Ie:

View attachment 19887

View attachment 19889
PLAN Type 054A FFG following USS Ft. Worth, LCS-3, in the South China Sea​

IMHO, the US will announce it asserted FON. The Chinese will broadcast to the US Navy (as they did to the P-8s) warnings, and they will announce they they warned the US Navy.
What? Sail by only and miss a chance to hold exchanges, roast marshmallows, and sing Kumbaya on each others ships? It'd be a wasted opportunity, I say.
 

Brumby

Major
U.S. Briefing Asian Allies on Plans for Naval Patrols in South China Sea

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The United States has several options as to what kind of ships to send on the patrols, and the type of vessel will indicate how big a statement it wants to make, said James Hardy, the Asia-Pacific editor of IHS Jane’s Defense Weekly.

A littoral combat ship that works close to shore has been used in the past for such patrols, Mr. Hardy said. The United States could also send an Arleigh Burke class destroyer accompanied by a couple of smaller ships, thus sending a firmer message, he said.

The Chinese would also have choices of how to respond, Mr. Hardy said. They could buzz American ships with aircraft or target them with radar, as they have with Japanese vessels in the East China Sea, he said. Other options would include deploying coast guard vessels to shadow the United States Navy ships or using fishing vessels to get in the way of the patrols.
 
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