South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

plawolf said:

There are plenty of ways China could push back if America was to be needlessly and pointlessly confrontational, and America knows that.

That is why the White House is holding back while the military is desperate to push ahead.

It is in the American military and arms manufacturers' best interests to create and increase tensions to help the military justify their bloated budgets and for the arms makers to push weapons on "threatened" allies, at fat profit margins of course.

If the USN does make a habit of sailing within 12NM of China's new islands, maybe China will decide it wants to create some new artificial reefs to offset the environmental impact of its island building, and pass an endangered species habitable protection law forbidding ships from sailing within, say 1nm of protected habitat.

Sink a few hundred old ships 2 NM apart, evenly within 12 NM of their new islands, and give every single wreck protected habitat status.

Next time the USN sails within 12NM of the islands, issue them a fine for breaking Chinese endangered species protection laws in China's EEZ.

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plawolf said:

There are plenty of ways China could push back if America was to be needlessly and pointlessly confrontational, and America knows that.

That is why the White House is holding back while the military is desperate to push ahead.

It is in the American military and arms manufacturers' best interests to create and increase tensions to help the military justify their bloated budgets and for the arms makers to push weapons on "threatened" allies, at fat profit margins of course.

If the USN does make a habit of sailing within 12NM of China's new islands, maybe China will decide it wants to create some new artificial reefs to offset the environmental impact of its island building, and pass an endangered species habitable protection law forbidding ships from sailing within, say 1nm of protected habitat.

Sink a few hundred old ships 2 NM apart, evenly within 12 NM of their new islands, and give every single wreck protected habitat status.

Next time the USN sails within 12NM of the islands, issue them a fine for breaking Chinese endangered species protection laws in China's EEZ.

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SampanViking said:

Precisely - my favourite was to announce snap live fire exercises at very short notice at the locations being approached.

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To cut to the chase, several issues cry out for discussion between the U.S. and China:

• Given the strategic context of A2/AD vs. JAM-GC and the role of C4 ISR, should some electronic and signals intelligence activities such as probing, tickling, tracking with targeting, interference with communications, and military research and surveys be considered a threat of the use of force, which is prohibited by the U.N. Charter and the UNCLOS?

• Do certain military activities such as live-fire exercises satisfy the due regard requirement for, say, coastal states rights and duties to protect marine mammals and fisheries?

• Are any of these activities an abuse of “freedom of navigation”? Indeed, can freedom of navigation be abused, or is it absolute and without limit?

• Specifically, are the activities in China’s EEZ of the U.S. hydrographic survey ship Bowditch, the U.S. ocean surveillance ship Impeccable, and the Poseidon if it was dropping sonobuoys, prohibited by the provisions of UNCLOS Article 258 which stipulates that “the deployment and use of any type of scientific research equipment in the marine environment is subject to the same conditions as those prescribed for marine scientific research?” That is, are they subject to the consent of the coastal state?

• What exactly is the U.S. doing and why, and given the risk to the U.S.-China relationship, is it necessary from an intelligence-gathering standpoint?

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Blackstone said:

That's too confrontational, and probably not in China's best interests. Better ploy is to shadow US warships with Chinese warships in same or greater numbers. A few flybys of long-range reconnaissance aircrafts and drones would send home the message in no uncertain terms. The danger is Neo-Cons and Liberal-Interventionists inside the Beltway would kneejerk and escalate the situation out of all proportions.

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Brumby said:

In my mind, the card that China will play and which the US is ill prepared to deal with is the use of militia fishing vessels as a means to confront the FON exercise. It is the same approach the Chinese used with the Japanese incident in with a fishing boat rammed the Japanese Coast Guard vessels. Multiple sources off the record said there were military personnel on board the fishing vessel that eventually lead to the detention of the captain and the subsequent international fall out.

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SamuraiBlue said:

PLAN will have to back off or escalate the situation in which they have no moral high ground since they are in international space.

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Brumby said:

In my mind, the card that China will play and which the US is ill prepared to deal with is the use of militia fishing vessels as a means to confront the FON exercise. It is the same approach the Chinese used with the Japanese incident in with a fishing boat rammed the Japanese Coast Guard vessels. Multiple sources off the record said there were military personnel on board the fishing vessel that eventually lead to the detention of the captain and the subsequent international fall out.

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joshuatree said:

Depending on which feature the USN will choose to sail by and what they choose to do when sailing by, moral high ground is subjective.

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Blackstone said:

Doubtful there were Chinese military personnel on board the specific fishing boats you mentioned, because I Japanese officials would play the political angle to the hilt. I don't discount the notion China would station military or intelligence agents on board "fishing" boats for better coordination with the CCG and the PLAN, but it probably didn't happen with the Japanese incident of 2010. Still, if you have "multiple sources," kindly list them for future reference.

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