This is the real reason Washington is making trouble for Beijing in the SCS and FONOPs are just one set of tools to sustain US-alliance military primacy in the region. Problem is, as China gets stronger economically, politically, and militarily, the alliance's tool chest shrinks and provides fewer good options for all sides.
Meanwhile, Washington mouths ad nauseam it doesn't want adversarial relations with Beijing, but its actions show just the opposite. Hopefully, it ends with the four great powers accommodating each other (US shares power, China embraces strong US presence, Indian and Japan invited to the club) but in the meantime we'll see lots of useless rancor.
Other problems being that the cats paws the US uses have their own agendas and schemes.
The US is also in too deep, and those nations knows it, so the US cannot even really yank on their chain any more without risking their house of cards collapsing around their ears. So you are increasingly looking at instance where the tail is starting to wag the dog.
If the likes of the Philippines, emboldened with assumed American support, makes a foolish overreach/overreaction like Turkey did when it shot down the Russian Su24, the US will feel compelled to back them irrespective of the merits and facts behind the actual event, because it has made too big of a deal of its role as security guarantor, so any case where China publicly slaps down its vassal, with the US doing nothing of substance to stop it, is going to be seen by many as a sign that the US is writing blank cheques and hasn't the means or wills to provide the security it promises.
Without that last pillar, the foundation of US primacy and position, in South East Asia at least, risks collapsing.
Basically the US has already badly misplayed its cards by needlessly picking a fight with China on this issue, where frankly, the overwhelming majority of Americans couldn't give a toss no matter how much media spin and propaganda they are force fed.
If the chips are down, and especially if it looks like it was the Philippines who started it, there would be precious little public support for direct US military intervention if and when China decides to take retaliatory military action.
That will put the US government in a real bind. Do nothing and risk their allies changing side en mass, or go to war on the other side of the world for someone else over something almost no Americans are willing to fight, never mind die, for.
I think our American friends will be more familiar with the implications of the naval war of 1812 between the fledging US Navy and the British Royal Navy than most. Suffice to say, even though the British had the indisputably superior fleet and emerged with complete command of the oceans, a few small victories for the US, in what was really little more than skirmishes, was sufficient to provide a sufficient fulcrum on which world historical trajectories and the fortunes of Empires changed.
I can see a similar situation arising with the SCS dispute, only with the US taking on the role of established dominant power, while China plays the rising challenger, and you can bet the strategists of the PLAN see that as well. The US would do well not to place itself in a position of vulnerability and tempt China too much.
The SCS isn't Taiwan, worst case scenario, Beijing can survive a military defeat there with relatively little lasting damage to China's long term strategic position, a small conflict there is also unlikely to spill onto the Chinese mainland as all sides would be keen to avoid escalation.
So, given the relatively smaller risks/costs and potentially game changing gains, I think you will see China far more prepared to risk direct, open confrontation if America over-extends itself there, and it will ensure America fires the first shot.
Me pointing this out isn't gloating or warmongering, quite the opposite, as its highlighting a potential pitfall for the US that could easily lead to unintended consequences for us all in the hopes that if enough Americans see sense, they could maybe alter the course America is currently on.
