Should China foward deploy ships to Gwadar?
- Thread starter bergegard
- Start date
escobar
Brigadier
Indeed, but the question is for what?
monitor naval activities in indian sea
keep an eye on indian military development
control maritime sea lines for his tanker
Pakistan have given China soverign guarantees to use the Gwadar base and it has one of the largest deep sea ports in existance. For China the base is important in the long run and it is capable of holding the deep sea fleet the Chinese are constructing (aircraftcarriers and all the assorted ships for a aircraftcarriergroup). The problem is that neither the american nor the indians whant to see the Chinese at their doorstep at the mouth of the persian golf.
deploying the ships right now would yield no bennefit for China. instead it might acutally make the Chinese ships a "hostage"...and it scares the neighbours. however in 10 years it will be different, China will scare everyone anyways and they are actually strong enough to support oversea bases
Hm I dont think that China have the luxury to wait 10 years. Pakistan is disintegrating from the American war in Afghanistan and is getting weaker by the day and I dont think that the american would let Gwadar go if they win in Afghanistan since it is gateway to south Afghanistan for american supply and possibly for all american supply if they cant trust their supplyline from Karatchi to Pershawar. Better then to sanitaise the almost empty desert road from Gwadar to Kandahar.
Last edited:
Vlad Plasmius
Junior Member
I imagine China will be deploying ships to Gwadar in the future. I would say presently that they shouldn't. However, five years down the line I could see them beginning to deploy ships there. If they were to do it now I wouldn't be sure what to deploy. However, I think deploying some of the Kilos and Songs would be a good plan. China could spare a few of those. Moving 054As there, about two would be useful. I'd like to say deploy Soveremny or the 052C, but that would be a bit of a strain. Perhaps the 051C could be deployed in Gwadar since they have decent medium-range fleet defense capabilities and anti-ship capability. Obviously supply ships would be deployed there.
Given the area an 071 and some LSTs would be in order. If China acquires Zubr class ships two could be deployed there. Part of the advantage would be that a large amphibious detachment not only allows China to react quicker to conflicts in Africa or the Middle East it will also allow them to be active in U.N. peacekeeping missions.
A direct land route from China makes it a more ideal position than other potential bases. As I understand China is already working on the logistics of the land route to the base and since it's a deep port intended for the kind of large container ships being built by China it should be enough to support a moderately-sized naval force at least. I would imagine the logistics being put in place would not require much work to support a naval force of the size I mentioned. Should China end up deploying a carrier there on a permanent basis that would change things.
Given the area an 071 and some LSTs would be in order. If China acquires Zubr class ships two could be deployed there. Part of the advantage would be that a large amphibious detachment not only allows China to react quicker to conflicts in Africa or the Middle East it will also allow them to be active in U.N. peacekeeping missions.
A direct land route from China makes it a more ideal position than other potential bases. As I understand China is already working on the logistics of the land route to the base and since it's a deep port intended for the kind of large container ships being built by China it should be enough to support a moderately-sized naval force at least. I would imagine the logistics being put in place would not require much work to support a naval force of the size I mentioned. Should China end up deploying a carrier there on a permanent basis that would change things.
American Designs for Pakistan, India and China
Mumbai Mystery: American Designs on Pakistan and India and China
By: Tariq Saeedi, with Sergi Pyatakov in Moscow and Mark Davidson in Washington
• Mumbai episode is the latest in a long and nefarious story that started unfolding some 16 months ago in the barren hills of Baluchistan, a sparsely populated province in western Pakistan.
• We have been able to do is just remove the lid on the American designs on Pakistan and India. Equally disturbing is the reality that Central Asia, China and Russia are also in the crosshairs of the United States. What we have found is sheer in scope, mind-boggling and frightening.
• Bonus hit on China and Russia: Mumbai incident has indirectly affected Chinese and Russian interests in the region. Two more successful moves on the chessboard and the Americans would be in a position to block RussiaChina in the greater Central Asian region. and If Balochistan is detached from Pakistan, it would contribute to American ambitions to put a full-stop to expansion of Russian and Chinese economic and political influence in the entire region.
• The USA seems to have decided to:
• We started working on this story in July 2007 on a vague tip that some foreign spies had been caught in the Pakistani province of Balochistan. We traveled to Balochistan and started talking to people who had many interesting things to tell.
• We decided to consult Sasha and Misha, two retired KGB colonels, living in a quieter district of Moscow. Sasha and Misha (not their real names), are retired KGB colonels and top-notch experts on Afghanistan and Pakistan. They were among the architects of the original BLA (Balochistan Liberation Army) during the Russo-Afghan war. They know Balochistan better than anyone else we ever met.
• The Americans are going for a major shift in their policy toward Pakistan and they may also be putting together some big operations,” said Sasha.“Go look for something unorthodox,” added Misha. “Unorthodox what,” we asked in exasperation. “Such as Yankee-Jihadi marriage,” said Misha
• There was buzz that a representative of a jihadi outfit recently had a meeting with an American in the Sadabahar area at the edge of Quetta. This was the beginning of August 2007 and the meeting was unusual. We could not identify the American but we managed to trace the jihadi to a splinter group of LeT (Lashkar-e-Taiba).
• “It cannot be an isolated phenomenon. There must be something before and after it. Look for patterns, always look for patterns,” said Sasha. Misha said, “This money will explode. It will explode in many places.” It was early September 2007, and Misha’s black prediction was not long in coming true. BB [Benazir Bhutto, former prime minister of Pakistan] returned to Pakistan on 18 October 2007 after nearly eight years of self-imposed exile…..
• “It is no coincidence that BB decided at this very time to return to Pakistan and hired BKSH to lobby for her in Washington.” “She has been chosen as pillion rider to a wayward Musharraf,” interjected Misha.
• “First, let’s clarify the question of funding by Americans. Financing, arming and training of enemy elements is nothing new in the American policy. The whole Russo-Afghan was fought on funding and training the kind of people who would never be welcome in Washington. However, their being loathsome was not a barrier against their being funded and trained to fight the Russians because, as the Americans are fond of saying, the end justifies the means. “If BB is removed from the scene, it would bring several benefits to Washington, the topmost being swift departure of Musharraf, replaced by a weak government that would be heavily dependent on Americans for its very survival”
• “The pattern here is,” explained Sasha, “that CIA and other American agencies are funding, training and arming MeK [Mujahideen-e-Khalq] in Iraq and Iran to use them against Iran, they are funding and supporting Jundullah in Pakistan and Iran to create trouble in Iran, and now they have co-opted some factions of LeT, possibly some other jihadi outfits also, to do their dirty work in Pakistan.” “Go chase Vickers,” said Misha with the finality that indicated the end of our session with the spymasters.
• Chasing Vickers is easier said than done. Michael Vickers is the assistant secretary of defence responsible for special operations and low intensity warfare. A former Green Beret, he was confirmed as assistant secretary for defence on 23 July 2007. At the height of Afghan operation, he was giving strategic and operational direction to 300 unit commanders, 150000 full time and 500000 part time fighters. He coordinated the efforts of ten countries and oversaw an annual budget of more than US $ 2 billion. In other words, Vickers was the direct challenger of Sasha and Misha in Afghanistan. Special Operations Command (Socom), a part of the portfolio of Vickers, is based in Tampa, Florida. Its annual budget is US $ 8 billion. More than 60000 covert and overt personnel are on its payroll.
• “We are impressed already,” we said, “but what is the connection between American funding of some Pakistani jihadi outfits, the return of BB to Pakistan, and suicide attack on her convoy?”
• X said, “There is general agreement among all the 16 intelligence agencies of the United States that Pakistan is ‘on the edge,’ the situation is ‘very bad, very bleak.’ The latest National Intelligence Estimate describes Pakistan as ‘no money, no energy, no government.’” He was of the opinion that not only the entire intelligence community but the mainstream Democrats and Republicans, and the Pentagon leadership, had come to the conclusion that nothing was going to go forward without dealing directly with Pakistan.
• BB (Benazir Bhutto) got assassinated on 27 December 2007, when she was leaving Liaquat Bagh in Rawalpindi after addressing a huge rally.
• It was absolutely shocking news and our first reaction was to kick ourselves in the butt for not going public with our story in November 2007. Would she still be alive had we released the story in November? It is a question that would always keep haunting us.
• It didn’t take Sasha and Misha long to identify the weapon. “It is a 0.22 high velocity pistol,” said Sasha. “Standard personal weapon of Mossad agents,” added Misha.
• He added, “You keep forgetting what I tell you. Look for patterns. There is certain CIA-Mossad signature that you cannot fail to miss if you are trained to look for it. The nerve gas used to paralyze the pilots of the C-130 carrying Ziaul Haq was made in Israel, but Israelis didn’t put the little box in the mango crate, they used the local people. The poisoning of Shahnawaz [younger brother of BB, who died of poisoning in mid 1980s in Cannes] can be connected to CIA-Mossad if someone cares to open the case again, but it was just the maid of Shahnawaz who did the dirty work, not the Israelis or CIA. There is unmistakable similarity in the riots and endless public processions that led to the ouster of Salvadore Allande in Chile and ZAB and Musharraf in Pakistan; in none of these cases you saw CIA or Mossad officers leading the processions and riots. Look for patterns.”
• The US military is burning nearly 600000 gallons of fuel per day. More than 80% of this comes from Pakistan, through 700 or so road tankers that are vulnerable to all kinds of attacks on their long journey from facilities in Pakistan to American bases in Afghanistan. Aware of this, the Americans have been trying to create an alternate route through Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Even if the alternate route is opened fully, it is very long and inefficient and there are risks that Americans are not in a position to counter at present.
• An independent Balochistan will be an ideal territory to keep supply lines open to the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. Independent Balochistan will provide Americans with excellent locations for putting up their military and naval bases to police the Persian Gulf and make sure that no other naval power including India, China and Russia ever gets upper hand in the Indian Ocean
• Afghanistan produced 6000 tons of opium in 2006, 8200 tons in 2007 and 7700 tons in 2008. On average, the world demand of opium-based narcotics, including heroin, is only half of this production. Where is the rest of opium going? This report gets credence from the fact that about 70% of all opium production in Afghanistan comes from Helmand province, an area under the direct control of the Americans. Narcotics are a traditional source of additional revenues for the American forces, especially the CIA.
Detailed NCA Investigative Report here:
Mumbai Mystery: American Designs on Pakistan and India and China
By: Tariq Saeedi, with Sergi Pyatakov in Moscow and Mark Davidson in Washington
• Mumbai episode is the latest in a long and nefarious story that started unfolding some 16 months ago in the barren hills of Baluchistan, a sparsely populated province in western Pakistan.
• We have been able to do is just remove the lid on the American designs on Pakistan and India. Equally disturbing is the reality that Central Asia, China and Russia are also in the crosshairs of the United States. What we have found is sheer in scope, mind-boggling and frightening.
• Bonus hit on China and Russia: Mumbai incident has indirectly affected Chinese and Russian interests in the region. Two more successful moves on the chessboard and the Americans would be in a position to block RussiaChina in the greater Central Asian region. and If Balochistan is detached from Pakistan, it would contribute to American ambitions to put a full-stop to expansion of Russian and Chinese economic and political influence in the entire region.
• The USA seems to have decided to:
- o Bifurcate Pakistan using all possible means, including the religious elements that can be bought, coerced or tricked;
- o Pull the plug on the Indian and Pakistani economies by creating a situation of perpetual confrontation;
- o Prevent India from becoming an economic rival of the United States in foreseeable future by denying it the energy resources of Central Asia and Iran, and draining its precious human and material assets in dead-end pursuits;
- o Promote drug addiction in South and Central Asia so that all the opium produced in Afghanistan is consumed in the region and little or none is left for export to the American markets;
- o Block the economic growth and expanding regional influence of China and Russia;
- o Acquire logistics facilities and infrastructure network for military action against Iran;
• We started working on this story in July 2007 on a vague tip that some foreign spies had been caught in the Pakistani province of Balochistan. We traveled to Balochistan and started talking to people who had many interesting things to tell.
• We decided to consult Sasha and Misha, two retired KGB colonels, living in a quieter district of Moscow. Sasha and Misha (not their real names), are retired KGB colonels and top-notch experts on Afghanistan and Pakistan. They were among the architects of the original BLA (Balochistan Liberation Army) during the Russo-Afghan war. They know Balochistan better than anyone else we ever met.
• The Americans are going for a major shift in their policy toward Pakistan and they may also be putting together some big operations,” said Sasha.“Go look for something unorthodox,” added Misha. “Unorthodox what,” we asked in exasperation. “Such as Yankee-Jihadi marriage,” said Misha
• There was buzz that a representative of a jihadi outfit recently had a meeting with an American in the Sadabahar area at the edge of Quetta. This was the beginning of August 2007 and the meeting was unusual. We could not identify the American but we managed to trace the jihadi to a splinter group of LeT (Lashkar-e-Taiba).
• “It cannot be an isolated phenomenon. There must be something before and after it. Look for patterns, always look for patterns,” said Sasha. Misha said, “This money will explode. It will explode in many places.” It was early September 2007, and Misha’s black prediction was not long in coming true. BB [Benazir Bhutto, former prime minister of Pakistan] returned to Pakistan on 18 October 2007 after nearly eight years of self-imposed exile…..
• “It is no coincidence that BB decided at this very time to return to Pakistan and hired BKSH to lobby for her in Washington.” “She has been chosen as pillion rider to a wayward Musharraf,” interjected Misha.
• “First, let’s clarify the question of funding by Americans. Financing, arming and training of enemy elements is nothing new in the American policy. The whole Russo-Afghan was fought on funding and training the kind of people who would never be welcome in Washington. However, their being loathsome was not a barrier against their being funded and trained to fight the Russians because, as the Americans are fond of saying, the end justifies the means. “If BB is removed from the scene, it would bring several benefits to Washington, the topmost being swift departure of Musharraf, replaced by a weak government that would be heavily dependent on Americans for its very survival”
• “The pattern here is,” explained Sasha, “that CIA and other American agencies are funding, training and arming MeK [Mujahideen-e-Khalq] in Iraq and Iran to use them against Iran, they are funding and supporting Jundullah in Pakistan and Iran to create trouble in Iran, and now they have co-opted some factions of LeT, possibly some other jihadi outfits also, to do their dirty work in Pakistan.” “Go chase Vickers,” said Misha with the finality that indicated the end of our session with the spymasters.
• Chasing Vickers is easier said than done. Michael Vickers is the assistant secretary of defence responsible for special operations and low intensity warfare. A former Green Beret, he was confirmed as assistant secretary for defence on 23 July 2007. At the height of Afghan operation, he was giving strategic and operational direction to 300 unit commanders, 150000 full time and 500000 part time fighters. He coordinated the efforts of ten countries and oversaw an annual budget of more than US $ 2 billion. In other words, Vickers was the direct challenger of Sasha and Misha in Afghanistan. Special Operations Command (Socom), a part of the portfolio of Vickers, is based in Tampa, Florida. Its annual budget is US $ 8 billion. More than 60000 covert and overt personnel are on its payroll.
• “We are impressed already,” we said, “but what is the connection between American funding of some Pakistani jihadi outfits, the return of BB to Pakistan, and suicide attack on her convoy?”
• X said, “There is general agreement among all the 16 intelligence agencies of the United States that Pakistan is ‘on the edge,’ the situation is ‘very bad, very bleak.’ The latest National Intelligence Estimate describes Pakistan as ‘no money, no energy, no government.’” He was of the opinion that not only the entire intelligence community but the mainstream Democrats and Republicans, and the Pentagon leadership, had come to the conclusion that nothing was going to go forward without dealing directly with Pakistan.
• BB (Benazir Bhutto) got assassinated on 27 December 2007, when she was leaving Liaquat Bagh in Rawalpindi after addressing a huge rally.
• It was absolutely shocking news and our first reaction was to kick ourselves in the butt for not going public with our story in November 2007. Would she still be alive had we released the story in November? It is a question that would always keep haunting us.
• It didn’t take Sasha and Misha long to identify the weapon. “It is a 0.22 high velocity pistol,” said Sasha. “Standard personal weapon of Mossad agents,” added Misha.
• He added, “You keep forgetting what I tell you. Look for patterns. There is certain CIA-Mossad signature that you cannot fail to miss if you are trained to look for it. The nerve gas used to paralyze the pilots of the C-130 carrying Ziaul Haq was made in Israel, but Israelis didn’t put the little box in the mango crate, they used the local people. The poisoning of Shahnawaz [younger brother of BB, who died of poisoning in mid 1980s in Cannes] can be connected to CIA-Mossad if someone cares to open the case again, but it was just the maid of Shahnawaz who did the dirty work, not the Israelis or CIA. There is unmistakable similarity in the riots and endless public processions that led to the ouster of Salvadore Allande in Chile and ZAB and Musharraf in Pakistan; in none of these cases you saw CIA or Mossad officers leading the processions and riots. Look for patterns.”
• The US military is burning nearly 600000 gallons of fuel per day. More than 80% of this comes from Pakistan, through 700 or so road tankers that are vulnerable to all kinds of attacks on their long journey from facilities in Pakistan to American bases in Afghanistan. Aware of this, the Americans have been trying to create an alternate route through Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Even if the alternate route is opened fully, it is very long and inefficient and there are risks that Americans are not in a position to counter at present.
• An independent Balochistan will be an ideal territory to keep supply lines open to the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. Independent Balochistan will provide Americans with excellent locations for putting up their military and naval bases to police the Persian Gulf and make sure that no other naval power including India, China and Russia ever gets upper hand in the Indian Ocean
• Afghanistan produced 6000 tons of opium in 2006, 8200 tons in 2007 and 7700 tons in 2008. On average, the world demand of opium-based narcotics, including heroin, is only half of this production. Where is the rest of opium going? This report gets credence from the fact that about 70% of all opium production in Afghanistan comes from Helmand province, an area under the direct control of the Americans. Narcotics are a traditional source of additional revenues for the American forces, especially the CIA.
Detailed NCA Investigative Report here:
There are already 1 million Chinese nationals living within Africa. Moreover 80% of China's oil comes from the Middle East by way of the Malacca Straigts.
Given the commitment of the US 5th Fleet towards the Middle East, and the 7th Fleet towards the Korean Penninsula, China cannot fully depend on the USN to maintain the shipping lanes open and provide support for thier ex-pats in Africa at the same time.
A support base in Pakistan with forward deployed units may be called for. However, the presence of the PLAN and the USN in the Indian Ocean may spark a naval arms race within this region, just as we have seen in East Asia.
Given the commitment of the US 5th Fleet towards the Middle East, and the 7th Fleet towards the Korean Penninsula, China cannot fully depend on the USN to maintain the shipping lanes open and provide support for thier ex-pats in Africa at the same time.
A support base in Pakistan with forward deployed units may be called for. However, the presence of the PLAN and the USN in the Indian Ocean may spark a naval arms race within this region, just as we have seen in East Asia.