Should China foward deploy ships to Gwadar?

Hm you are probably right that the chinese have a legimite right to protect its shipping. But its a intresting timing with the new american president and all. I mean if PLA navy is allowed to be based i Gwadar it changes the whole strategic outlock for the new american president. It would be a very smart move of the chinese goverment and really test the stamina of the new american president.

Re: Somali pirates and Chinese navy

bergegard said:

Hm you are probably right that the chinese have a legimite right to protect its shipping. But its a intresting timing with the new american president and all. I mean if PLA navy is allowed to be based i Gwadar it changes the whole strategic outlock for the new american president. It would be a very smart move of the chinese goverment and really test the stamina of the new american president.

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As long as the PLAN does not use Gwadar as a base like the USN uses Yokosuka, Sasbeo Japan. And Guam. 21 ships in all..including 3 LA class subs.



I don't for see any concern. China has the right to protect it's massive merchant fleet just as any other nation.

I started this thread because our great new member bergegard brought the subject to light in the Somlia pirate thread.

Should China permantley foward deploy a fleet to Gwadar.? What class and how many ships should be deployed? How will they accomplish this? What sort of logistical support is necessary? What will the American reaction be? Would this sort of deployment damage US Pakistan relations?

So SDF..What do you think??

bd popeye said:

I started this thread because our great new member bergegard brought the subject to light in the Somlia pirate thread.

Should China permantley foward deploy a fleet to Gwadar.? What class and how many ships should be deployed? How will they accomplish this? What sort of logistical support is necessary? What will the American reaction be? Would this sort of deployment damage US Pakistan relations?

So SDF..What do you think??

Click to expand...

Yes, undoubtedly it should. It should deploy a force of a few DDGs, an 093 or two and perhaps Sovs/s. And Type 22s for costal defence. In other words, a competent SAG, but not anything that will scare the neighbors too badly. And maritime patrol craft.

This is would be a good thing for Pakistan. Not only would it provide protection against India (both as a sort of trigger for involving China in a war between them, and because of the accompanyning security assurances such a deal would have and would imply). Also, Pakistan's relationship with America is shaky already. And, moreover, it will fall apart as soon as the US no longer needs Pakistan for the war in Afghanistan. Thus Pakistan can get some security assurances from this that it otherwise would lack.

(BTW when I say "costal defence", I mean covering the approaches to the base, and adding some extra firepower to this hypothetical fleet in defensive scenarios. I included them to defend against the sort of hit and run missle boat attacks that the Indian Navy used to great success against the Pakistani Navy in previous wars.)

From what I'm reading, this Somalia mission is an extraordinary case, that this would normally happen. China's principle of not strutting out its military power is still in tact. But then again in 10 years, this may change. At the moment, they don't seem to have the necessary fleet to be able to do this with Indian Navy around.

Would Pakistan even consider permitting a permanent forward base for PLAN on their territory? PLAN's ambition to be a blue navy would eventually nudge it to justify forward bases but presently, it doesn't have enough ships. The US does have Diego Garcia to monitor though.

If Pakistan does give the green light, I don't see why China shouldn't. In a time when Pakistan is probably more volatile than Iraq, even a small Chinese naval contingent could possibly act as a stabilizer. In addition, all great powers protect their overseas interests. China shouldn't be any different.

You do realize a permanent base in Gwadar can be interpreted by local tribes as China's interference with Pakistan.

And unless China is confident in its ability to deter India, a flotilla stationed in Gwadar can not help Pakistan but reduce China's maneuvering room.

A PLAN base in Gwadar just does not seem China's style and would simply be a resupply point with little other strategic significance.

Id it the facility were an SCO base however, then the story changes as this would allow facilites for Russian ships as well. It would also the appear in the wider context of the SCO helping Pakistan to repair its Stability and move towards full member status.

It would also be a useful move for other Candidate members, principally Iran, which might be interested in a similar arrangement. Kish Island certainly suggests itself, with all that a SCO base in the Persian Gulf would imply.

Re Pakistan, you do need to ask what the Pakistanis are also looking for in the agreement and how such a move would protect proposed Oil and Gas Pipelines connecting from Iran to Pakistan, India and China.

I think China better get with the program and start getting a "blue" base some where because when oil will start getting scarce they will need a fwd deployed base, better now than later. Pirates give everyone an excuse to start this. China could then have ships on both side of the indonesian trade routes.