Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

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kentchang

Junior Member
Registered Member
It is not better than the H-20, it would compliment it, and accompany it on long range missions as a bomber and fighter/bomber combo, protected by the air superiority J-20.
Disclaimer: I came to my conclusions all by myself.

Hmmm... If USAF can live without such luxury, I can too. You still think like we are in WW2 with fighter escorts and people are cheap and expendable. The whole idea of stealth is that the enemy doesn't know you are coming. Your fantasy is completely superfluous, insanely wasteful, and
your infatuation with 3D printing (how much maintenance money do you save on such structural components?) and resilience to hacking justifies a new aircraft type and personnel (with zero or minimal electronics/software sharing or else that defeats your brilliant idea) are out-of-this-world and incomprehensibly silly.

You must have a lot of kitchen gadgets at home. Play war games on your PC much?

My last comment on this topic.
 

Jason_

Junior Member
Registered Member
@Andy1974

Nobody is "misunderstanding" you. What Deino and others are trying to do is rationalize your arguments because your original ones are so insane and incoherent.

It is very clear that you are entirely ignorant of both military aviation engineering and procurement process and the "roles" of modern combat aircrafts.

The FC-31/future J-31 cannot be easily "enlarged" to accomodate WS-15 class engines. To do so would be equivalent to buidling a completely new jet and is cost ineffective. Having "3D printed" airframe component does not help in any way and if you think it does, it means you don't understand 3D-printing and aircraft design.

The J-20, along with every fighter produced in the 21st century, is a multirole fighter. Everything that makes it effective in an air superiority role makes it effective in ground and maritime strike. A fighter adopting the J-31 planeform would not more "multi-role."
 
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Deino

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
...
It is very frustrating to put an idea out there and to have two people misread it and attack me because of it. @Deino seems to think I am talking about the J-35 and you think I am putting an enlarged J-31 against J-20 when one is clearly multi role and one is air superiority.
...

Ok, to put it politely in a way I never could since I already lost all patience, @Blitzo explained why you are wrong, why your idea is - to quote him in a polite way - "simply ridiculous"; I would say plain stupid! As such, nothing more should be added.

And since this is not a modelling-fantasy or what-if discussion but one of the flagship-threads I simply end this discussion: Any further post from you calling again anyone here unfair, biased, too stupid since we don't see how brilliant your idea of an enlarged J-35 (since there is no J-31) will be deleted and you receive a one month vacation to reconsider. I really have enough!

And the same goes for any afterburner-less WS-15 to power a mini-B-21!
 

MarKoz81

Junior Member
Registered Member
Oh well.. I didn't refresh the page as I was writing this. Feel free to delete it.

Is your comment about J-20 based on past use cases or based on confidential data that you have access to? If you have real data that shows lower availability of J-20 or overly high maintenance & flight cost. I would love to see it.

If I had confidential information not only would I never share it with you, but I would never even indicate that I may be in possession of such information.

Anyone who has ever worked in fields bound by confidentiality rules would never use such arguments in a discussion. B

Instead re-read the post to which you replied. There's a sentence in it with a phrase written in bold font with words underlined. The key word in the phrase is "cost". The word "availability" isn't even included because the term "readiness" is not synonymous with "availability".

You don't know that cost item and if you don't know it then you have no argument to make.

J-20 basically shares the same engine as J-10 and J-16s. It is likely the most mature and reliable engine in service with PLAAF. There is a wealth of expertise within China on how to maintain and repair it. There is not another aeroengine type with similar level of knowledge base.

Read on the history of development of F-100 and F-110 for F-16. It is likely the best case study of technological, economic and institutional constraints relevant tor the problem and it should explain why your argument is invalid despite being seemingly sound on the surface.

The two aircraft would share many of the same suppliers. I don't see why parts for J-20 would break down more frequently than J-31. Similarly, I don't see why CAC build quality is lower than SAC or its ability to supply spare parts and fix problems on J-20 would be worse.

This suggests you don't understand how an aircraft is maintained or how cost factors into the process at all. The issue is very complex and can't be reduced to "parts break more often". I won't try to educate you. I am surprised that you did not seek that knowledge on your own. It is publicly available, especially now. Civilian aerospace industry is governed by the same general rules as military aerospace engineering. Once you know the rules in one area, their application elsewhere is relatively trivial.

Let's return to the main problem:

I don't see the justification for needing J-31 at all.

In my posts I tried to explain that while there is no sufficient evidence for inevitable adoption of J-31 there is also no evidence sufficient for dismissal of J-31. I presented some arguments for the latter and assumed that my position would be understood.

I am not claiming J-31 will happen only that you can't claim that "it never will because there is no reason for it". Whether J-31 enters service or not is a complex problem that can't be easily reduced as you do it. Whatever the reason for it, you shouldn't be doing it.

And finally "insult part of reply". Sigh...

In chronological order:

If you need a cheaper aircraft next to J-20, just build more UCAVs

Just for the record: there are people online who interview you as an expert and in those interviews you speak critically of other people's knowledge.

I see that you have now moved onto the insult part of reply.

If you think I know nothing on this subject, then please post actual evidences to show J-20 has unreasonable operational cost

I don't know if you actually listened to people that interviewed me, because all except one has nothing to do with military. And I gladly trash on think tanker knowledge of technology.

Let's state some basic rules for reasoning and social interaction that should be well understood in any online space intended for discussion:
  1. Nobody is above criticism.
  2. A true statement is never an insult but it can be a criticism.
  3. No criticism can be dismissed as an insult simply because the recipient feels insulted by the act of being criticised.
  4. No criticism that is implicit in nature can be known with certainty unless an inquiry is made about the nature of it.
  5. If one assume to know the nature of implicit criticism without inquiring about it beforehand one indicates a sense of superiority over the person making the criticism.
  6. Any assertion made without providing evidence for it can be dismissed without providing evidence against it.
  7. If one makes an assertion without providing evidence for it, one can't demand that whoever dismisses that assertion provides evidence for their dismissal to be valid
  8. Refusing to engage with an argument and deflecting to other arguments as means of disproving the point is acting in bad faith.
I don't see how any well-intentioned person could dispute the above.

Also it should be fairly obvious that I targeted my criticism primarily at the very specific statement which I expressly cited.

If you need a cheaper aircraft next to J-20, just build more UCAVs

There are so many reasons for needing a cheaper manned aircraft that to make such a statement in such a dismissive manner indicates a lack of imagination, ability to analyse complex problems and basic self-awareness that should characterise a person being interviewed as an expert on any matter, and especially if that person engages in criticism of others, largely under these same premises i.e. that they lack those essential traits.

You either:
  1. make uninformed statements, or
  2. publicly criticise others for making uniformed statements, or
  3. do both and are described by relevant sections of DSM and ICD
The reason why I chose to respond with an implicit criticism rater than by stating it outright was to trigger your self-reflection. I didn't want to simply correct you.

You are on the staff. You are responsible for setting the tone for the discussion. If you bring it down to the level of fanboy circlejerk informed by personal fantasies and imaginary knowledge then this is where it will inevitably end up. The moderators set the tone.

Circumspice.

I said all I had to say on the matter. I shouldn't have to say it at all. That's your role to ensure that there is never a reason to say it. Being a moderator is not a self-serving privilege. It is a duty to public trust.

I have no interest in continuing this. There is no reason to continue this. EOT.

Hang on it doesn't seem like you read or understood my post at all.

At least, it appears your post is riddled with fallacies and strawman points. I don't disagree with anything in your post. And please spare me the arrogance of the "you peoples" as if you know that much more about warfare than the rest of us armchair peoples across the internet. Yes yes everything in your post is technically correct and mine doesn't actually address those specific points.

This is so incoherent and unintelligent that I will simply ignore the rest of your comment.

One remark on your argument for lack of rationale for J-31 in the above post (not cited):
  • F-18 was developed despite both F-15 and F-14 being in service with better performance. It was also developed with better performance compared to YF-17 i.e. lower capability gap vs F-14/15. Despite it the economic rationale was correct.
  • MiG-29 was developed despite Su-27, MiG-31 or MiG-25 being in service and its sidelining in VKS service was political in nature. There are several indicators that suggest that failure to sustain both aircraft is at least partly responsible for VKS problems, and that despite the obvious shortcomings of both platforms.
There are more examples but these two should suffice. It also perfectly exemplifies the complexity of comparing economic factors between different engines, airframes etc. It's all there. Just read it. Don't write your own history. Read the one that happened.

EOT as well.
I think I'll take a break.
 
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Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
You either:
  1. make uninformed statements, or
  2. publicly criticise others for making uniformed statements, or
  3. do both and are described by relevant sections of DSM and ICD
The reason why I chose to respond with an implicit criticism rater than by stating it outright was to trigger your self-reflection.

You are on the staff. You are responsible for setting the tone for the discussion. If you bring it down to the level of fanboy circlejerk informed by personal fantasies and imaginary knowledge then this is where it will inevitably end up.

You are not here as a practicing mental health professional, nor are you here as a therapist.
You do not need to trigger people to engage in self-reflection, what you need to do is to make arguments with premises and defend them, rather than spending a good portion of your your average post's word count indirectly throwing criticisms to others and insinuating that you know better, through writ.


Now, I actually agree with some of your arguments (for example, in theory I agree that as of right now there isn't sufficient evidence for us to confidently rule out a PLA land based FC-31 aka "so-called J-31" as being procured), but you are not above having to defend them, and you most certainly are not here to cause others to engage in "self reflection".

Overall, I am sympathetic to the self confidence and authority with which you like to write about things.
But you've had enough of these sort of interactions with multiple members across your time here now, that this is becoming a problem. Yes, that means things like using terms like "you people" or "ridiculous circlejerk" without actually addressing the arguments from others made by their own perspective.

You don't need to defend yourself or reply to this -- simply accept it and internalize it. If what I described above is not a form of behaviour you can tolerate on this forum, you very much have the ability to not engage with the forum.
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Oh well.. I didn't refresh the page as I was writing this. Feel free to delete it.



If I had confidential information not only would I never share it with you, but I would never even indicate that I may be in possession of such information.

Anyone who has ever worked in fields bound by confidentiality rules would never use such arguments in a discussion. B

Instead re-read the post to which you replied. There's a sentence in it with a phrase written in bold font with words underlined. The key word in the phrase is "cost". The word "availability" isn't even included because the term "readiness" is not synonymous with "availability".

You don't know that cost item and if you don't know it then you have no argument to make.



Read on the history of development of F-100 and F-110 for F-16. It is likely the best case study of technological, economic and institutional constraints relevant tor the problem and it should explain why your argument is invalid despite being seemingly sound on the surface.



This suggests you don't understand how an aircraft is maintained or how cost factors into the process at all. The issue is very complex and can't be reduced to "parts break more often". I won't try to educate you. I am surprised that you did not seek that knowledge on your own. It is publicly available, especially now. Civilian aerospace industry is governed by the same general rules as military aerospace engineering. Once you know the rules in one area, their application elsewhere is relatively trivial.

Let's return to the main problem:



In my posts I tried to explain that while there is no sufficient evidence for inevitable adoption of J-31 there is also no evidence sufficient for dismissal of J-31. I presented some arguments for the latter and assumed that my position would be understood.

I am not claiming J-31 will happen only that you can't claim that "it never will because there is no reason for it". Whether J-31 enters service or not is a complex problem that can't be easily reduced as you do it. Whatever the reason for it, you shouldn't be doing it.

And finally "insult part of reply". Sigh...

In chronological order:







Let's state some basic rules for reasoning and social interaction that should be well understood in any online space intended for discussion:
  1. Nobody is above criticism.
  2. A true statement is never an insult but it can be a criticism.
  3. No criticism can be dismissed as an insult simply because the recipient feels insulted by the act of being criticised.
  4. No criticism that is implicit in nature can be known with certainty unless an inquiry is made about the nature of it.
  5. If one assume to know the nature of implicit criticism without inquiring about it beforehand one indicates a sense of superiority over the person making the criticism.
  6. Any assertion made without providing evidence for it can be dismissed without providing evidence against it.
  7. If one makes an assertion without providing evidence for it, one can't demand that whoever dismisses that assertion provides evidence for their dismissal to be valid
  8. Refusing to engage with an argument and deflecting to other arguments as means of disproving the point is acting in bad faith.
I don't see how any well-intentioned person could dispute the above.

Also it should be fairly obvious that I targeted my criticism primarily at the very specific statement which I expressly cited.



There are so many reasons for needing a cheaper manned aircraft that to make such a statement in such a dismissive manner indicates a lack of imagination, ability to analyse complex problems and basic self-awareness that should characterise a person being interviewed as an expert on any matter, and especially if that person engages in criticism of others, largely under these same premises i.e. that they lack those essential traits.

You either:
  1. make uninformed statements, or
  2. publicly criticise others for making uniformed statements, or
  3. do both and are described by relevant sections of DSM and ICD
The reason why I chose to respond with an implicit criticism rater than by stating it outright was to trigger your self-reflection. I didn't want to simply correct you.

You are on the staff. You are responsible for setting the tone for the discussion. If you bring it down to the level of fanboy circlejerk informed by personal fantasies and imaginary knowledge then this is where it will inevitably end up. The moderators set the tone.

Circumspice.

I said all I had to say on the matter. I shouldn't have to say it at all. That's your role to ensure that there is never a reason to say it. Being a moderator is not a self-serving privilege. It is a duty to public trust.

I have no interest in continuing this. There is no reason to continue this. EOT.



This is so incoherent and unintelligent that I will simply ignore the rest of your comment.

One remark on your argument for lack of rationale for J-31 in the above post (not cited):
  • F-18 was developed despite both F-15 and F-14 being in service with better performance. It was also developed with better performance compared to YF-17 i.e. lower capability gap vs F-14/15. Despite it the economic rationale was correct.
  • MiG-29 was developed despite Su-27, MiG-31 or MiG-25 being in service and its sidelining in VKS service was political in nature. There are several indicators that suggest that failure to sustain both aircraft is at least partly responsible for VKS problems, and that despite the obvious shortcomings of both platforms.
There are more examples but these two should suffice. It also perfectly exemplifies the complexity of comparing economic factors between different engines, airframes etc. It's all there. Just read it. Don't write your own history. Read the one that happened.

EOT as well.
I think I'll take a break.
I do admire the amount of effort you put into some of these posts. You also do seem to have a lot of experience in certain areas. So just take this however you will. Most of us do not have the patience or desire to fully explain everything we say.

I am absolutely amazed you are willing to draw conclusions about my understanding of a certain subject based on a short response I wrote about ucav.

If I have to fully explain and justify every sentence I write on this forum, then it becomes a very unpleasant and tiring experience. Most people are not wired that way.

so if you feel the need to have long thorough debate on a subject, this may not be the right forum for you.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
This is so incoherent and unintelligent that I will simply ignore the rest of your comment.

One remark on your argument for lack of rationale for J-31 in the above post (not cited):
  • F-18 was developed despite both F-15 and F-14 being in service with better performance. It was also developed with better performance compared to YF-17 i.e. lower capability gap vs F-14/15. Despite it the economic rationale was correct.
  • MiG-29 was developed despite Su-27, MiG-31 or MiG-25 being in service and its sidelining in VKS service was political in nature. There are several indicators that suggest that failure to sustain both aircraft is at least partly responsible for VKS problems, and that despite the obvious shortcomings of both platforms.
There are more examples but these two should suffice. It also perfectly exemplifies the complexity of comparing economic factors between different engines, airframes etc. It's all there. Just read it. Don't write your own history. Read the one that happened.

EOT as well.
I think I'll take a break.

Okay another personal attack. I won't spare much effort in replying this time then.

Using your examples to emphasise the validity of my core arguments - F18 is a USN (navy only) fighter. Just like J-31 ought to be a PLAN only fighter... in my humble worthless opinion (if that wasn't clear enough on an internet forum filled with armchair generals incl Markoz).

Mig-29 was a massive blunder in how the VKS split its available resources. This too is actually surprisingly well discussed in military circles both in east and west. It offered no real capability advantage over Su-27, did not save the VKS any more in operational costs (gotta walk on eggshells so with the caveat of correct me if I'm wrong and by this I mean a significant enough margin comparable to F-16 vs F-15 costs), did not have superior readiness (same caveats etc etc), did not perform critical tasks the Su-27 was incapable of (wasn't designed to either). Basically a "low cost" Su-27 that didn't have the performance of the Flanker and after decades of operating it, also did not save them much money over just having more flankers. In fact having more flankers at the expense of the fulcrums may have even served them better. There is a reason why Flanker continued receiving domestic and export success through to the 21st century and why even the Russian more or abandoned the Fulcrum in the modern era (beyond Sukhoi throwing political weight around... after all Mig-29 was nearly as much an export success until the 21st century). This is not to say the Fulcrum still isn't one of the most impressive fighters to ever fly.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The MiG-29 was basically like 30% cheaper than the Su-27.

But its radar was much weaker. Lack of electronics miniaturization in the late Soviet period certainly didn't help. The internal fuel was very limited as it was designed to be a frontline fighter against NATO. So it had limited range.

Mass production and export sales of the Su-27 brought the unit cost down. Much more money was invested into improving the Su-27 platform. The engine lifetime kept going up and the electronics kept improving. The MiG-29 kept lagging behind. While the MiG-35 basically mitigates most of these issues, it is a bit late for that.

It would assume the J-35 would have similar economics. Typically aircraft price scales with airframe weight. But mass production of the J-20 should mean the price difference is way lower.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
The MiG-29 was basically like 30% cheaper than the Su-27.

But its radar was much weaker. Lack of electronics miniaturization in the late Soviet period certainly didn't help. The internal fuel was very limited as it was designed to be a frontline fighter against NATO. So it had limited range.

Mass production and export sales of the Su-27 brought the unit cost down. Much more money was invested into improving the Su-27 platform. The engine lifetime kept going up and the electronics kept improving. The MiG-29 kept lagging behind. While the MiG-35 basically mitigates most of these issues, it is a bit late for that.

It would assume the J-35 would have similar economics. Typically aircraft price scales with airframe weight. But mass production of the J-20 should mean the price difference is way lower.

Thanks. F-16 I recall being nearly half the procurement and operational cost of the F-15. Helped further no doubt by forgoing certain equipment.

Mig-29 produced ratio to Su-27 produced is around 0.8:1. Sure there are many other factors that go into costings but we don't know any details to make judgement on J-20 and J-31. If costs are roughly similar and commensurate with performance, my personal position is that J-31 just isn't worth the squeeze for PLAAF. SAC gets the PLAN contract and that's it. Export up to them and third parties. Last 5 or so pages since the idea of PLAAF J-31, the pro J-31 service members are quite a bit more sure about why it is a should/must have.

Assuming J-31 (PLAAF ground based variant) can get to 70% procurement and operational cost of J-20 over its production and service life, the question for enthusiasts become whether or not this represents good value at the cost of certain capability losses compared to J-20.

Some have mentioned in this thread and a few other related, that having a second multirole 5th gen fighter somehow improves the resilience of the PLAAF because relying on one 5th gen platform somehow makes the system more vulnerable. I'm assuming based on opsec, leaks, and any luck an opposition may have in implementing technologies that defeat the platform in whatever way. Now my question is how does having just one more platform, designed and built basically the same way and developed using similar technologies make the platform more resilient to those defeats than J-20 (same circuit designs, similar avionics and sensors or at least the fundamental principles all these subsystems utilise).

If a J-20 can be incapacitated by learning and exploiting critical weaknesses much like how Chinese forces can/are/have learned and exploited critical weaknesses in their opposition's force structures and hardware, how could having an additional same same somehow give added resilience? That argument I have read on this forum is a questionable one and members who have made it (all due respect to) seem to simply assume this resilience to be a given. I do not think it necessarily is.

Anyway on the topic of whether it is worth it or not, the details are lacking and the only sensible conclusion is that without those details there is simply no way to determine whether PLAAF procurement is appropriate.
 
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