Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
are you sure about that?

how much would you estimate J-20 production number? min 500 to ~1000?
how much would you estimate J-XZ production number? 2?3 hundards?

ok let's assume J-XY could be produced as much as 500, then the unit cost need to be less than half of J-20 to make it cheaper, and that is after the money inflation

I'm not sure how advance SAC need to be in order to produce J-XY that cheap...
also, if certain technologies do exist, why CAC can't use it to improve their further batch of J-20 and reduce its cost, unlike Boeing and Lockhead Martin, CAC and SAC are all under AVIC and they are in fact sharing technologies

It's not really the unit purchase cost that is significant. It's the sustainment cost.

US Costs below.

F-35: $80Mn flyaway + $9.93 Mn per year (2018 figure)
F-22: $140Mn flyaway + $13.27 Mn per year (2018 figure)

So for the first 20 years, the total cost is

F-35: $278 Mn
F-22: $405 Mn
 
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stannislas

Junior Member
Registered Member
I personally envision a total J-20 production run of about 600 fighters (to end by 2035).
we have about 100 J-20 by the mid-end 2021, that means another 500 J-20 in 13 years, ~38 per year, roughly 1 brigade, which is roughly what we have in the last 3 years, Wuhu, Anshan and Nanning, so your personal envision is the production speed won't ram up anymore, even with new dual seat appears, and even less than J-10 and flanker production rate, ok, nice, very objective

My projection for the 300-300 J-XY is for a 10 CATOBAR carrier fleet,
seriously? 10 CATOBAR carrier fleet? is this from some random rumor or your personal wishful thinking??? the most optimistic think from serious chinese source would be about 6 in mid 2035...

For J-XY and J-XZ, they are both fighters of the same variant, and I envision a total production run of about 1000 fighters, 300-400 carrier based J-XY, and over 600 land based J-XZ, keeping in mind both J-XY and J-XZ would share substantial common subsystems and parts with each other as well.
why J-XZ can ramp up to the same number of J-20? does J-10 has similar number than all the flankers? what's your based on this estimation beyond 'oh I think J-XY may be cheap enough, so China will equip a lot?' seirously, even in Chinese fourm/Weibo/Tieba I haven't see this kind of non sense for like a year or two (especially after certain someone deleted his own account after repeatedly failed his prediction of J-20), some senior Chinese observer, like Yankee, shilao has never mentioned a single word about land based version... so what's rumor you are based on?

Those technologies in turn, cannot easily be integrated into the J-20 without developing something that approaches a clean sheet variant of J-20. The fact that SAC and CAC both come under AVIC doesn't change the fact that developing such a variant would require time, aerospace resources, and money, which would be better spent by CAC to develop a 6th generation fighter instead.
yes, so that's why when we saw less then a year after SAC announce it could use 3D print technology to built bearing airframe, CAC annonuced it use the same technology on J-20 for certain parts, they must not shared by the SAC and completely developed by CAC itself right?

Also, given the size of J-20 would be larger than land base FC-31, or a single engine based J-XZ if you will, what make you think it has less potential to intergrate new technology? I thought F-22 is an example of stuff to much stuff into small body, so further upgrade become hard.

OK, one more thing I'm curious here, J-20, is actually the winner of 5th gen fighter competation, what makes you think there will be no competation for the 6th gen fighter project? if there will be, CAC and SAC will develop their 6th gen fighter project independetely anyway, and AVIC will not place any extra budget on either projects until PLA choose its favourate

The J-XZ would partially replace a combination of J-10 variants, Flanker variants, and JH-7/As. The totality of those types of course would be replaced by a combination of J-XZ, J-20, and UCAVs, and possibly a new future regional bomber.
Ok. this makes zero sense, so you think China would use a smaller bird with almost certain less range and load capacity (than J-20) to replace heavy duty JH-7 and flanker??? what happens to J-10 not taken any of the JH-7 and flankers role??? why can't J-20 taken their role?

Also, I though Yang Wei and Su Cong both mentioned more then once than range is one key factor of future fighter, what makes you think a cheaper/smaller jet will be satisfied by PLAAF?
 

stannislas

Junior Member
Registered Member
It's not really the unit purchase cost that is significant. It's the sustainment cost.

US Costs below.

F-35: $80Mn flyaway + $9.93 Mn per year (2018 figure)
F-22: $140Mn flyaway + $13.27 Mn per year (2018 figure)

So for the first 20 years, the total cost is

F-35: $278 Mn
F-22: $405 Mn
thank you, that's exactly my point, the price difference won't be that big, and certainly not significant enough to become a key factor to decide if additional fighter is needed.

plus, land base FC-31 is also twin engined, so the maintains cost would increase as well, the total cost ration would therefore be higher than ~3/4
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
yes, but price wise, I don't think it will make a significant different for PLAAF to create another supply chain and logistic system for entire new aircraft, also the reason for F-35 to be cheaper than F-22 is F-22 has only produce 187 units, and F-35 has already produced more than 700 units and likely another 3000 units to go, whereas J-20 in china would have an expected of 500+ or even 1000, and FC-31, well, 2 or 300?


canards reduce RCS is an old busted myth, there has been multiple occasions and papers from CAC said during the cruise, the J-20 canards could be locked, so that the RCS reduction could be neglectable

general heat detector on missle are normally more sensitive to temperature change rather than the size of the frame, if a infred detector can see WS-10 from km, I would expect it can see all the other exhaust from 50km as well (may be not F-22)



hi, this is contridict to what you mention later, that:

now we have a naval version with small airframe, to have an addition cannon, and addition side weapon bay, and dual seat means the entire airframe need be much larger, so dilemma A, how would you expect the development timeframe could be achieved with in 3 years (for a fighter we haven't saw yet)???

dilemma B, once the airframe get larger, the small engine WS-13/19 will be too small to use, to back to WS-15, which makes you smaller IR and visual amd price hypopthsis gone, and also from a logitics point of view, I'm not sure if PLAAF is happy with that.

so here you have it, to close the capacity gap of J-20, FC-31 need a larger bodyframe to cop with additonal equipment and therefore longer time to development,
otherwise, it leaves a capacity gap between J-20 and FC-31, and have only a cheap unit cost (maybe not, given the number of FC-31 production) alternative to be produce in late 20s or even early 30s, you should have a better argument than China want to save money, cause you have mentioned before that



if it's not a game changer, like F-15 to F-4 or F-22 to F-15, than it's not a 6th gen


sorry man, if you have any idea of manufacture or industry or production line, you won't say anything like that, in reality, the US way of produce YF-22/23 and XF-32/35 is the most inefficient and uneconomical way to R&D a product. cost more than double, recieve only half, if US defence department is a company, it will be bankrupt for a long time

I think you meant canards increase RCS? The CAC doesn’t mitigate the problem by locking down the canards. It is done via cropping the trailing tip, using jagged edge treatment on the trailing edge, and applying RAM to the front edge and trailing edge. Flight control does minimize the canard movements to under 15 degrees but it doesn’t lock the canards into fixed surfaces.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator

Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
It's not really the unit purchase cost that is significant. It's the sustainment cost.

US Costs below.

F-35: $80Mn flyaway + $9.93 Mn per year (2018 figure)
F-22: $140Mn flyaway + $13.27 Mn per year (2018 figure)

So for the first 20 years, the total cost is

F-35: $278 Mn
F-22: $405 Mn
Not to put too fine a point on it, but for their respective eras, as well bt direct comparison, the, F-22 was a much more technologically aggressive design than the F-35. F-22 tried to do more with late 1980s technology than the F-35 tried with mid 2000s technilogy.
 

Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
~600 land based J-XZ seems quite possible when compared to current J10/11/16 numbers and considering the retirement of JH-7, but 3-400 carrier versions seems a bit high to me. I personally don't think China will spend so much cash on 10 carriers for worldwide power projection especially before the Taiwan issue is resolved. Probably the 2 STOBAR ones plus 2 or 3 CATOBAR carriers

I also don't think a new single engine fighter is going to happen. The production cost savings are probably not big enough to justify a new fighter development especially considering the time cost needed for design and prototyping

a typical fighter in a service that prioritize training for operational flexibility will likely see service life shorter than the type’s front line service life. You may expect each of the early production fighter to be replaced at least once by later production fighter during the service life of the type.

you also need attrition reserve, especially if the doctrine does not forbid the service from becoming engaged in conflicts less than superpower Armageddon.

so I think it is reasonable to suppose that for every single fighter slot that needs to be filled in PLAAF and PLAN stremgth tables, 1.5-2 fighters needs to be built Eventually.

the US expectation of 3000+ F-35 takes that into account. I doubt more than half that number will actually be in service at any given time. So I expect if china’s need is to have 1000 j-Xy in service at a given time, up to 2000 will need to be built.
 

Maikeru

Major
Registered Member
The debate of J-XZ/land based J-XY, versus clean sheet single engine fighter powered by WS-15, versus more J-20s, has already been debated multiple times, and my position on it has already been made clear, I'm not going to constantly repeat my arguments every few months.


For PLA watching, our ability to predict future outcomes is somewhat limited. The best we can do is to try to track rumours and to in turn rationalize them within a base of knowledge and common sense.

So I would suggest to people to not ask "is a J-XZ/land based J-XY better, or a clean sheet single engine fighter powered by WS-15 better, or is more J-20s better, for the PLAAF as a mainstream land based 5th generation fighter" -- and instead ask:
"Based on rumours suggesting the PLAAF is pursuing J-XZ/land based J-XY, and based on the fact there are no rumours of a single engine fighter powered by WS-15, what are the likely factors, conditions that could have caused the PLA to pursue J-XZ/land based J-XY as a possible mainstream land based 5th generation fighter?"
That it is a whole lot cheaper to adopt an existing PLANAF design than to develop an entirely new single engine fighter.
 

Maikeru

Major
Registered Member
seriously? 10 CATOBAR carrier fleet? is this from some random rumor or your personal wishful thinking??? the most optimistic think from serious chinese source would be about 6 in mid 2035...
Why not? PRC put a lot of money and effort into developing EMCATS, KJ600, J31 etc. for a reason. It's an aggressive program but PRC has the shipyard capacity to do it, and unlike the USN the costs of running and equipping the yards themselves plus training and administering the workforce is ameliorated over large numbers of merchant ships rather than falling entirely on the naval budget. Factor in less need to pay shareholder dividends and China can potentially get a lot more CV's for its money than US can. And nobody mentioned a 2035 deadline except you.
 
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