Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

Gatekeeper said:

I'm questioning the wisdom of continuing with the project when it is pretty much dead, or at least on life support.

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Deino said:

Not sure, if you missed it, but AVIC itself posted this:

View attachment 58252

... and soon thereafter AVIC/SAC confirmed to have a new fighter under was.

I know, this is probably all too premature to be sure, but IMO it looks much more like a "go ahead" than "the project ... is pretty much dead"!

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Orthan said:

Politics could be an explanation for that.

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Deino said:

Not sure, if you missed it, but AVIC itself posted this:

View attachment 58252

... and soon thereafter AVIC/SAC confirmed to have a new fighter under was.

I know, this is probably all too premature to be sure, but IMO it looks much more like a "go ahead" than "the project ... is pretty much dead"!

Click to expand...

AndrewS said:

I think it's more than hope.

I reckon there is an eventual requirement for at least 400 J-31, which is sufficient to justify the upfront R&D costs and a separate logistical system.

From an industrial base perspective, the Chinese Air Force would want to sustain competing design institutes (SAC versus CAC).
And if SAC already has a head start with flying prototypes, they're almost certain to get the contract.

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Jono said:

so all we need to see is a tail hook on the FC-31.
my humble opinion is to support 2 stealth aircrafts, for the simple reason of talent development and training.
imagine the benefits of having 2 teams of young talents competing against each other, and putting what they have learned into the 6th generation aircraft design!! of course, subject to funding and resources availability.

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Viktor Jav said:

There is a few problems with this assumption:
1) The number of 400 is rather arbitrary.
2) There is little to no indication or evidence as to why the PLAAF would have a requirement for a FC-31 type fighter.
Which basically means we are merely speculating.

And whatever stealth fighter requirements that arises from the PLAAF in the future will have to be measured against the J-20, in other words if the J-20 can be modified to suit the requirements then there is no need for the FC-31 seeing as with an established fighter line the J-20 will have the advantage of lower cost production per unit and faster production time in contrast to SAC which does not.

Currently the only area that the FC-31 can possibly make a breakthrough is as a carrier fighter. But if the J-20 can be modified in the same way then the latter is dead in the water. And that is not entirely impossible, dimension wise the J-20 is about the same size as the J-15, people are rather caught up with the whole "carrier planes must be small" idea but really there is no hard evidence as to why that must be the case.

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1. The Chinese Air Force continuing with a fleet of 2000 combat aircraft, so 400 medium-weight stealth fighters is not unreasonable.
2. If you look at geography, China has so many neighbours near its borders. eg. Taiwan is 200km away, Korea is only 350km away, Vietnam/India share a border etc. So a requirement for 400 lower-spec J-31 is not unreasonable.
3. A 15 year production run at 24 aircraft per year. That is a large enough production run that unit costs and maintenance are reasonable, and can justify the upfront R&D costs. But if they were only producing 100 J-31s, it would be cheaper just to stick with additional J-20 instead.

AndrewS said:

...

Point 2
As for a carrier version, again, we're looking at low production numbers for a carrier variant. Call it a a maximum of 200 aircraft over the course of the next 15 years. Plus I imagine that maintenance of the J-20 stealth coatings is a nightmare due to the salt-water environment.

So I reckon there will still be a requirement for a *common enough* medium-weight stealth fighter with baked-in stealth materials between the Chinese Air Force and Chinese Navy.

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AndrewS said:

Point 2
As for a carrier version, again, we're looking at low production numbers for a carrier variant. Call it a a maximum of 200 aircraft over the course of the next 15 years. Plus I imagine that maintenance of the J-20 stealth coatings is a nightmare due to the salt-water environment.

So I reckon there will still be a requirement for a *common enough* medium-weight stealth fighter with baked-in stealth materials between the Chinese Air Force and Chinese Navy.

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