Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

Blackstone said:

Except F-35 costs makes the high-lo mix more like high-higher mix.

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Well, theres NO WAY the F-35 is going to operate above 50,000 ft, so the High ground is indisputably the Raptor's. When it comes to terminal performance, the F-22 continues to be on another planet from other challengers, so the F-22 will remain the high, while the F-35 continues to try to fit into a "niche" on the lower end of the performance spectrum.

However feel free to set your own parameters, everyone else on here sure seems to want to???

Air Force Brat said:

Well, theres NO WAY the F-35 is going to operate above 50,000 ft, so the High ground is indisputably the Raptor's. When it comes to terminal performance, the F-22 continues to be on another planet from other challengers, so the F-22 will remain the high, while the F-35 continues to try to fit into a "niche" on the lower end of the performance spectrum.

However feel free to set your own parameters, everyone else on here sure seems to want to???

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He was talking about the cost

vincent said:

He was talking about the cost

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and Hi/Lo was not, is not about money, but about performance! Normally the Hi is much more expensive?? in this case the Lo is 20 years newer as it finally gets rolling and commensurately more expensive, though if production costs begin to "amortize" the F-35A will end up at 85-100 million. The F-35's we are buying now are very expensive due to "concurrency" and concurrency simply means we "need" this airplane "right now" not in 10 years when the development cycle is complete?

As controversial as concurrency has been, it has put us and our partners in nearly 200 aircraft, at least 1/2 of those combat coded, and 100 combat coded fifth gens are LIFE!

My point is that on DT our sister forum, the Aus Mods have forbidden ANY positive posting on the F-22, or talk of a HI/LO when paired with the F-35. I don't know why Webby allows them to be so "obtuse"??? maybe he works for LockMart and the F-35 is his baby??? but hey he's Webby! I have been "threatened there for posting the obvious truth about the F-22, and there is no doubt "sour grapes" as the F-22 was NEVER intended for export due to security.

But the truth is the F-22 is the HI, the F-35 is the LO, and in spite of the F-35's ability to go A2A, it is after all the joint strike fighter. Its A2A role has been enhanced of necessity, (F-22 production was ignorantly capped at 187, and we have lost 4 aircraft bringing us down to 183, STOOPID, STOOPID!)

A "two ship"of F-22's or even a pair of two ships will add immeasurably to not only situational awareness, but effectiveness and more importantly safety for the flight of F-35s or even F-15s/F-16s, running mission effectiveness and pilot/aircraft survival/safety way, way up!

SinoSoldier said:

The question remains as to whether the PLAAF/NAF defines a "hi-lo" mix as a J-20 & FC-31 pair or a J-20 & 4th-generation pair, and it's increasingly suggestive that the latter is true.

One possible swaying factor would be the recent "Red Sword" exercises, in which the newly-inducted J-20 allegedly wiped the floor with 4th generation fighters. The PLAAF/NAF might see greater merit in 5th generation aircraft after that and perhaps start adopting low-end 5th generation aircraft as the "lo" portion of the mix.

I'd like to point out that (and I also had harbored the wrong notion for quite some while) the F-22 and F-35 are not a hi-lo combo but rather two platforms that offer distinctive capabilities. The J-20 in a way combines the roles & functions of the F-22 & 35.

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There is denial in some circles that there ever was a HI/LO concept??? but the F-22 and F-35 work very well together, and are nicely integrated, and I would highly recommend that China develop the FC-31, while they have some very nice high end 4+ aircraft, even if they purchase the SU-35???? a real big if, the FC-31 should represent an affordable 5th gen with a significant advantage over any 4++ gen aircraft, and a smart move for China, in upgrading their aircraft fleet, and keeping it viable!

Air Force Brat said:

and Hi/Lo was not, is not about money, but about performance! Normally the Hi is much more expensive??

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I think you are confusing attack profiles (Lo-Hi-Lo, Hi-Hi-Lo etc) with fleet composition, which is what everyone else is discussing here... Whether J-20 and J-31 would be procured in a Hi-Lo fleet mix is absolutely about money, not operational altitudes. It's been a running turn of phrase in the USAF for... decades.

Blackstone said:

Except F-35 costs makes the high-lo mix more like high-higher mix.

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In most scenarios I think F-35 will be Hi and legacy 4th Gen aircraft will be Lo in the USAF mix. I think the same will be true for China with J-20 and the Flanker/J-10 mix.

I'm not even sure how the J-31 could be that cheaper than the J-20 if that one demonstrator had basically all the same toys as the J-31.

Zool said:

I think you are confusing attack profiles (Lo-Hi-Lo, Hi-Hi-Lo etc) with fleet composition, which is what everyone else is discussing here... Whether J-20 and J-31 would be procured in a Hi-Lo fleet mix is absolutely about money, not operational altitudes. It's been a running turn of phrase in the USAF for... decades.

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I think you better "read" each of my previous posts here before correcting me, I used the altitude for illustration, and I explained why the F-35 is more expensive than the F-22. 2016 "Obama Bucks", will not buy the hardware the year 2000 "Bush Bucks" would! The F-35s many bells and whistles, are after all, bells and whistles. The F-22 will clean the F-35, or ANY other aircrafts clock 6 days a week, and twice on Sunday.

For the USAF to continue to call the F-22 the Hi, has been rendered "moot", due to the political classes axing of F-22 production far short of the 700 initially planned, so the "story" was changed to reflect the sad stooopidity that decided the Raptor was "too good", a decision made by politicians, not USAF Fighter Brass or Fighter Pilots!

So back on topic, the FC-31 makes a lot of sense for China, and whether or not the "politicians" are intelligent and persuasive enough to realize that remains to be seen?? I'm not going to hold my breath, but Shenyang has put forth an extremely viable aircraft, that would be perfectly capable of replacing J-10s, J-8s and so on.

Air Force Brat said:

I think you better "read" each of my previous posts here before correcting me, I used the altitude for illustration, and I explained why the F-35 is more expensive than the F-22. 2016 "Obama Bucks", will not buy the hardware the year 2000 "Bush Bucks" would! The F-35s many bells and whistles, are after all, bells and whistles. The F-22 will clean the F-35, or ANY other aircrafts clock 6 days a week, and twice on Sunday.

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No need to get "defensive", I clearly read the posts and your words are there for all to see. I did not respond to all of your posts because some of them were purely about F-22 or F-35 or your standing with the folks at the DT Board, and had nothing to do with Chinese aircraft or the FC-31 thread that we are in. After Blackstone said the operation mix of F-22 & F-35 would be High-Higher, you said (clearly talking about operating altitudes):

Air Force Brat said:

Well, theres NO WAY the F-35 is going to operate above 50,000 ft, so the High ground is indisputably the Raptor's. When it comes to terminal performance, the F-22 continues to be on another planet from other challengers, so the F-22 will remain the high, while the F-35 continues to try to fit into a "niche" on the lower end of the performance spectrum.

However feel free to set your own parameters, everyone else on here sure seems to want to???

Click to expand...

Then Vincent pointed out the Hi-Lo discussion was about cost (i.e. overall fleet mix affordability) and you responded (clearly saying it was not and is not about cost):

Air Force Brat said:

and Hi/Lo was not, is not about money, but about performance! Normally the Hi is much more expensive?? in this case the Lo is 20 years newer as it finally gets rolling and commensurately more expensive, though if production costs begin to "amortize" the F-35A will end up at 85-100 million. The F-35's we are buying now are very expensive due to "concurrency" and concurrency simply means we "need" this airplane "right now" not in 10 years when the development cycle is complete?

Click to expand...

And I said... I think you are confusing attack profiles (Lo-Hi-Lo, Hi-Hi-Lo etc) with fleet composition, which is what everyone else is discussing here... Whether J-20 and J-31 would be procured in a Hi-Lo fleet mix is absolutely about money, not operational altitudes. It's been a running turn of phrase in the USAF for... decades.

Hi-Lo is not a new concept and it's not about aircraft fighting altitudes, so I don't know what there is to disagree with... You don't win wars with Silver Bullets. Or better put, nobody can afford to fight a war with just Divisions of highly trained (i.e. expensive) Special Forces. You need a large number of affordable GI to carry the fight. It's a cost analysis of numbers versus performance, and quantity has a certain quality of its own.

My guess is China will operate a fairly large number of J-20 and iterate the design in blocks similar to J-10. I would not be surprised to see 400 - 600 within the next 20 years. I think a mix with current Chinese 4th Gen (or 3rd as they call them) would make sense and I would not be surprised to see a naval variant J-20 for reasons of logistical commonality as well as range and payload versus J-31. But that's just my guess and obviously not favorable for the J-31.

Anyway I'll leave you with a link of where the USN looks at the same Hi-Lo cost analysis in its planning:

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Pmichael said:

I'm not even sure how the J-31 could be that cheaper than the J-20 if that one demonstrator had basically all the same toys as the J-31.

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I guess you meant "J-20" instead of J-31 in your post.

I agree with you that I don't think J-31 would be cheap enough to be counted as cheap compared to J-20. That excludes J-31 to be the Lo in a Hi-Lo mix. I am inclined to believe that in the PLA's view, the Lo is the 3rd (4th in US/Russia) generation fighters. This is a view held by everyone in Chinese BBS except J-31 lovers from my observation.