Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

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taxiya

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abc123 said:
Considering that China also voted for sanctions against Iran at the UN ( and having no good reason why to do that ), I wouldn't quite agree with that.
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So was Russia also voted for the UN sanction?
So was China and Russia also voted for the UN sanction against NK?

You should not mix two things together.

NPT is a fundamental principle that China and Russia will not ignore regardless who is trying? Because NPT is also a rope around the necks of some other potential countries on the opposite camp?
 
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taxiya

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plawolf said:
Iran is too much of a political hot potato for there to be much prospect of such a high profile military co-operation deal between China and Iran.

Although if the sales and marketing people at SAC are any good, they will be hinting like mad at Iranian interest in the project, especially to their arch nemesis the Saudis.

Even if the FC31 might not be enough to clinch Saudi funding on its own merits, the Saudis might still be willing to 'buy' the project if that means keeping the fighter and technology out of Iranian hands.

While all the recent big ticket UAV deals with SA, UAE and other Gulf countries have indeed significantly improved the chances of other major purchases of Chinese military hardware by those said same countries, we need to also remember that those are filthy rich countries that other vendors will be eying with great interest.

If SA and UAE came sniffing, I am sure Russia would make the PAKFA available (if they are not already proactively marketing it to them).

As such, it would be a mistake to assume that the FC31 is the 'logical choice because it is also the only choice'.

At the end of the day, it will mostly boil down to the capabilities and performance of the FC31 itself, as well as the credibility of SAC in delivering.

I think this is where SAC fell down hard with the PLAAF - their credibility is shot with the PLAAF after decades of over-promising and under-performing, especially the mess they made with the Flanker line.

My guess is that the PLAAF simply lost faith that they can delivery what they promised, and are not giving them money until they see real results rather that more of the same empty promises.

That was the primary reason for SAC to go it along in building the prototypes, to try and prove to the PLAAF that they can deliver.

Sadly for them, it seems the PLAAF assessment of their capabilities are better than their own, because the first flying prototype, while a significant feat, still fell short of promises and/or expectations, which is why the PLAAF continues to show zero interest and SAC itself is devoting resources towards building the improved MK2 version over clocking flight time hours with the existing prototype.

Unless SAC can break with a habit of a lifetime and actually pull a magic bunny out of the hat with the FC31 MK2, I think their best chance to an actual order for the FC31 lies from political plays rather than selling the bird purely on its own merits.

That is why I suggested they play up the Iranian angle to try and get the Saudis to pony up if only to block Iran.

The Saudis are certainly rich and unaccountable enough to be able to buy both the PAKFA and FC31, so I think it's a real possibility. Just not the near sure thing some others have almost implied.
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or China can export to both Iran and SA? Nothing to brag, but China did sell weapons to both Iran and Iraq during their wars in the 1980s.

Yes, Iran is "hot potato" now, but once the UN sanction is gone, once Iran becomes full SCO member, it may not be hot anymore.

I think the Chinese bottom line is to keep balance from western boarder of China to Europe. China would rather none of SA and Iran have J-31 than only one has it. If SA gets F-35 or PAKFA, the chance of Iran getting J-31 will be increased. If SA choose J-31, it would have to accept Iran getting it too. Last time SA tried to convince China to reduce Iranian oil import by giving a discount to China it was politely denied. Weapons would be the same.
 
plawolf

plawolf

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taxiya said:
or China can export to both Iran and SA? Nothing to brag, but China did sell weapons to both Iran and Iraq during their wars in the 1980s.

Yes, Iran is "hot potato" now, but once the UN sanction is gone, once Iran becomes full SCO member, it may not be hot anymore.

I think the Chinese bottom line is to keep balance from western boarder of China to Europe. China would rather none of SA and Iran have J-31 than only one has it. If SA gets F-35 or PAKFA, the chance of Iran getting J-31 will be increased. If SA choose J-31, it would have to accept Iran getting it too. Last time SA tried to convince China to reduce Iranian oil import by giving a discount to China it was politely denied. Weapons would be the same.
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If we were talking about an off-the-shelf product that China has finished developing, sure, China would be able to sell it to who it wants and no-one would be able to say or do anything about it.

The issue here is that China doesn't want to fund development of the FC31. That means if SA (or Iran) buys into the project with the funds needed to take this project to completion, they will be buying more than just airframes, but also a share of the rights to the IP of the plane itself. With those rights, comes powers, chief of which would be a veto on who cannot get it.

I also do not see why China would want to play god in the ME to try and balance everyone against each other. That is also surely an impossible dream because even today, the balance of power between Iran and SA are overwhelmingly biased in favour of SA (at least on paper). If China really was obsessed with creating balance in the ME, it should have started pumping arms to Iran years ago rather than selling to SA and their Gulf state buddies.

China has thus far tried to keep its dealings with ME countries largely commercial and unbiased (even with SA).

China tries not to pick sides or even favourites, and it has been working fairly well for them thus far, so it would be very odd for them to suddenly tilt so much in favour of Iran.

One of the biggest selling points of the FC31 would be the chance to join the project on the ground level, and get a say in the project direction
 
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abc123

Junior Member
Registered Member
taxiya said:
So was Russia also voted for the UN sanction?
So was China and Russia also voted for the UN sanction against NK?

You should not mix two things together.

NPT is a fundamental principle that China and Russia will not ignore regardless who is trying? Because NPT is also a rope around the necks of some other potential countries on the opposite camp?
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Agreed. But I just wanted to say that China isn't much more reliable partner than Russia.
 
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taxiya

Brigadier
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abc123 said:
Agreed. But I just wanted to say that China isn't much more reliable partner than Russia.
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Well, in a realpolitik world nobody is reliable, not forever at least.

But on the specific case of relationship between Iran and China/Russia, I think China may be more reliable, at least China did not renegade from her commitment to Iran. The SA's failed oil bribing is one example. The only thing that I am aware of that can be somewhat regarded as betrayal was the partly delivered C-802 missile, but for that China might have compensated by providing assistance to Iranian for domestic production in the name of Noor.

Yes, it is true that China did not provide much to Iran either, nor promise much.

The reason that China can be regarded as more reliable is not a magic. It is simply that China promise less than Russia or U.S.. And China does not make a promise or threat if it can not back them up. China rather remain silent and low. No promise, no betrayal, hence no damage to credibility and reliability.
 
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