wtlh
Junior Member
Great News, now after J10Bs PAF gona have J31s. Desperate to know the numbers, though.
Hmmm, while it is certainly a good news, I am kind of less enthusiastic about it at this stage, and still think it is far too early for any certainty. The J-10 deal has been in the talks for years now, and had also been reported as "past initial enquiry stage" a long long time ago. The JF-17 programme is in full swing, and I still think PAF is more interested in the JF-17 replacing many of the legacy equipments than new more expensive fighters; and currently they seemed to be quite satisfied with JF-17.
On the other hand, I guess if costs are reasonable, FC-31 actually offer a better option than J-10. First of all, capability increase from JF-17 to J-10 won't be that dramatic, and the Pakistani F-16s still has some service life in them---if they get J-10s, then they will be used in the same roles as their F-16s. Secondly, J-10 uses a different engine family to JF-17, whereas it is clear from the beginning that the FC-31 engine is going to keep to the same lineage. Thirdly, by the time J-10 is going to enter PAF service, IF indeed it does, then we will be looking at at least 2018 or 2020 mark, but if they had instead gone with the FC-31 program and participated in---what is, still the early stages of---its designing and testing process, by the same time frame, the FC-31 would have more than likely matured and customed to their needs. Also note that J-20 is ear-marked by the PLAAF to enter service in initial batches at around about the same time frame, which means all of the subcomponents of the Chinese 5-th gen fighter program should have more or less be completed and become available around that time mark too. The Pakistani FC-31 would certainly benefit from those, and make the success of the FC-31 program look rather more likely.
I have a feeling that SAC may be willing to offer a full tech transfer and a joint production project for the FC-31 with Pakistan, and that would be the main selling point. However, given the complexity of FC-31 compared to JF-17, it may still be years down the line that tech transfer and local production may become a real possibility, especially taking into account of the political instability and economic situation Pakistan is facing at the moment. And that is where my doubts on the deal lay.
Therefore, I hold a "let's wait and see" attitude, with a hint of cautious optimism.
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