What are the odds of J-31 entering PLAAF or PLAN service?
I somehow have a feeling, based on the fact that so far the J-31 prototype has never had any Aug 1st insignia on it, and still doesn't that it will remain strictly as an export model...
Look MA! NO Green Wheels????
What are the odds of J-31 entering PLAAF or PLAN service?
I somehow have a feeling, based on the fact that so far the J-31 prototype has never had any Aug 1st insignia on it, and still doesn't that it will remain strictly as an export model...
Chinese media have made interviews and short documentaries about J-31 and there are reliable interviewed experts that suggest that it indeed has a place in the navy or the air force. If this was untrue than a Beijing spokesperson would flat out deny it. The J-31 could be aimed as both an export model and used by the defence force.
If the J-31 is indeed centred on a naval role, I speculate that the J-20 program is given more priority simply because China's aircraft carrier program is still in early development, and also the on going production of the J-15. The J-15 seems to be used to help absorb first carrier experience as it would be risky to have the J-31 as China's first carrier fighter for its future aircraft carriers. The J-15 frame has experience through it's su-33 ancestory, and it would provide tests and experience for pilots and pave the way for an efficient use and management for the J-31s.
Presumably over time the configuration will change from all J-15 to J-15/J-31 combination for the carrier wing. The J-15 will be for strike and the J-31 for air superiority. The J-20 I suspect will be land based and operate as a longer range strike attack against the support air assets of adversaries including AWAC and tankers.
A mixed carrier wing could be the future and the J-15 might slowly be phase out in the very long term. If the J-31 is more for the navy then the program's timetable is heavily dependent the aircraft carrier program. If this is the case then the J-31 has a longer timetable than the J-20 and explains why Chengdu is developing its fighter faster then Shenyang. The J-20 also seems to be given more priority also because China would need a fighter to complement the Su-30MKK and the J-11 for air superiority as regional powers will introduce fifth gen fighters in the near future (2020s), which J-20 seems to specialise in. Which role the J-20 suits in is debatable but I think it's more of a multi-role kind, including air superiority.
The biggest point of the theory that the J-20 is specialised as a long range strike platform is the length of the body. It is long but only by 10-16% when compared to other fifth-gen aircraft. The leading edge extensions and the small diamond wings gives the J-20 an appearance of being a long attack aircraft, but these are characteristics are more shared with multi-role fighters. I can elaborate on this point in the J-20 thread when I have the time.