Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator
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thunderchief
Senior Member
There is another question : would China sell J-31 to Pakistan ? In the past China sold only relatively cheap and unsophisticated planes like J-6 and J-7 . PAF used them to bolster their numbers , but their best birds were from the West (F-16 , Mirage etc .. ) Even now , JF-17 made in cooperation with China (and Russia regarding the engine) is still second in capabilities to F-16 Block 52.
J-31 is a fifth generation fighter . As such , it could not be cheap to develop and to procure . And that means main buyer would have to be PLAAF and J-31 alongside J-20 would be a mainstay of Chinese Air Force in decades to come . Now we have come to main question : Does China trust Pakistan enough to sell them J-31 ?
As I said before , J-31 is not just a cheap copy of already known plane . Instead it would be a top-line fighter , very interesting to foreign (Western) intelligence services . On the other hand , Pakistan is a country with constantly shifting policies (pro-Western , anti-Western , alliance with US , alliance with China ... ) . One day they may enter in strategic partnership with China and get J-31 , another they they may want something from US and a price for that would be "little inspection"
of their new planes . In such circumstances it could be very risky for China to sell them J-31 . Instead , maybe a better policy would be that for now Pakistan gets 4.5 generation planes like J-10B , and for China to retain fifth generation planes just for itself in another 10 years or so until such planes become widespread in the world .
J-31 is a fifth generation fighter . As such , it could not be cheap to develop and to procure . And that means main buyer would have to be PLAAF and J-31 alongside J-20 would be a mainstay of Chinese Air Force in decades to come . Now we have come to main question : Does China trust Pakistan enough to sell them J-31 ?
As I said before , J-31 is not just a cheap copy of already known plane . Instead it would be a top-line fighter , very interesting to foreign (Western) intelligence services . On the other hand , Pakistan is a country with constantly shifting policies (pro-Western , anti-Western , alliance with US , alliance with China ... ) . One day they may enter in strategic partnership with China and get J-31 , another they they may want something from US and a price for that would be "little inspection"
of their new planes . In such circumstances it could be very risky for China to sell them J-31 . Instead , maybe a better policy would be that for now Pakistan gets 4.5 generation planes like J-10B , and for China to retain fifth generation planes just for itself in another 10 years or so until such planes become widespread in the world .
Engineer
Major
There may be a lot of reasons why J-20 isn't suitable to go on the carrier, but with the J-20 being slightly shorter and a lot narrower than the J-15, size would definitely not be one of those reasons.
kwaigonegin
Colonel
There is another question : would China sell J-31 to Pakistan ? In the past China sold only relatively cheap and unsophisticated planes like J-6 and J-7 . PAF used them to bolster their numbers , but their best birds were from the West (F-16 , Mirage etc .. ) Even now , JF-17 made in cooperation with China (and Russia regarding the engine) is still second in capabilities to F-16 Block 52.
J-31 is a fifth generation fighter . As such , it could not be cheap to develop and to procure . And that means main buyer would have to be PLAAF and J-31 alongside J-20 would be a mainstay of Chinese Air Force in decades to come . Now we have come to main question : Does China trust Pakistan enough to sell them J-31 ?
As I said before , J-31 is not just a cheap copy of already known plane . Instead it would be a top-line fighter , very interesting to foreign (Western) intelligence services . On the other hand , Pakistan is a country with constantly shifting policies (pro-Western , anti-Western , alliance with US , alliance with China ... ) . One day they may enter in strategic partnership with China and get J-31 , another they they may want something from US and a price for that would be "little inspection"
While the J-31 is a very modern and sophisticated plane I do not believe it has any 'secret sauce' or technologies totally unknown to Western aircraft makers. China may very well have reasons to decline selling J-31 but the stealing of it's technologies by western powers wouldn't be one of them.
If anything I think they would be more cautious about other countries knowing the max capabilities of the J-31 and develop tactics or weapons/sensors etc to counter it but again that is very minimal.
Either way it's all moot since we're in pure speculation mode HOWEVER I am pretty sure China probably won't be selling the J-20 to anyone anytime soon.
thunderchief
Senior Member
It would be enough to check RAM coating and to measure RCS from various angles and in various frequencies to get pretty good picture about stealth characteristics of the plane . And if they check avionics(emissions) and handling in the air , they could develop effective tactics against the J-31 .
J-31 is definitely approve for sales. It not, a mock up of J-31 will not be display at zhuhai 2012 airshow. The fact that we do not even have any info of J-20 at zhuhai tells us it strictly for domestic use. PAF needs to come out with fund for J-31 if it really wants the project to speed up.
Excellent post Wolfie, and my you are a Bright Lad, I couldn't have put it better myself, and you threw in a few new twists that hadn't occurred to me, but I think we both agree that the J-31s fortunes are A2A with the Plan as a carrier bird, now I do not agree that SAC is behind Chengdu, but just different, kind of like Boeing and Lockheed, they have both had their moments. Brat
vesicles
Colonel
I thought J-20 was similar in size and might even be a little smaller than some of the Flankers... Might be slightly smaller than J-15, but should be comparable?
thunderchief
Senior Member
What was approved for sale , mockup ?
Let's be serious :
1. J-31 is far from finished . It would need some time (few years) and LOT of money and research to get to IOC version .
2. Were would that money come from ? Pakistan doesn't have much (they relay on soft loans to purchase planes) and the other Chinese clients aren't exactly rich . So China would have to pony up with the cash
I remind you that even US had to pay most of the cost for F-35 development , although they had lot of wealthy partners involved with the plane (Britain, Israel , Holland , Italy ... etc ) 3. In order to lower the price of each individual plane , there would have to have mass production . A who will buy large quantities of J-31 ? Only one country - China .
4. Therefore , in order to succeed J-31 would have to be developed with Chinese money and purchased with Chinese money . Basically , J-31 would have to become mainstay of PLAAF and PLANAF (alongside J-20) . In such circumstances China could not afford to sell this plane to "unreliable " countries for few extra bucks . At least not until fifth generation planes become old news and not such a big deal .
It would be a risky move, but SAC could fund the project's development while it's looking for buyers.What was approved for sale , mockup ?
Let's be serious :
1. J-31 is far from finished . It would need some time (few years) and LOT of money and research to get to IOC version .
2. Were would that money come from ? Pakistan doesn't have much (they relay on soft loans to purchase planes) and the other Chinese clients aren't exactly rich . So China would have to pony up with the cash
3. In order to lower the price of each individual plane , there would have to have mass production . A who will buy large quantities of J-31 ? Only one country - China .
4. Therefore , in order to succeed J-31 would have to be developed with Chinese money and purchased with Chinese money . Basically , J-31 would have to become mainstay of PLAAF and PLANAF (alongside J-20) . In such circumstances China could not afford to sell this plane to "unreliable " countries for few extra bucks . At least not until fifth generation planes become old news and not such a big deal .
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