Why would you wish for a severely weakened Russia? That's not a help for China.
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation
- Thread starter Strangelove
- Start date
It doesn't matter because the distribution of power remains inside the anti-West block.
Russia's influence will go down, China's influence will go up. Btw for entirely kicking Russia out of CA, this should be done after the US-China rivalry ends. For now, reducing Russia influence in Central Asia is good enough
However keeping Russia to play the bad cop to whip Central Asia to lower their heads is also feasible. It depends if Russia is smart enough to recognise that its days of demanding equal status with China on Central Asia are over.
Given the recent behaviour of Central Asia countries, it seems that China has given them the nod to get rid of Russian influence
What happened between Russia and Central Asian nations is between them not China's problem. China doesn't care much about Russian influence in Central Asia. For China, it is always the West that poses a threat to China. So the Western influence in the Central Asia is more of a concern for China.
However, China does want to increase economic cooperation with Central Asian nations. It is a high time that Russia stops trying to hinder China's economic influence in Central Asia. Most of these nations are desperately in need of investment to jump start their economies. It is clear given what happened in Ukraine that many of these nations want to distance themselves from Russia. And it is better off China to fill the hole than the West trying to cozy up with them and later instigate a color revolution in these nations.
I don't think China is interested in trying weaken Russian influence in the Central Asia. It isn't in China's interest to do so. China isn't ready to send its troops to quash any color revolution uprisings like the Russians did within Central Asia. It is counter-productive to work against Russia as both Russia and China need to face a common enemy which is the West. But not weakening Russian influence doesn't equal to not expanding China's influence in Central Asia. South East Asia and Central Asia should be prioritized for expanding China's economic and political influence in the next few years.
However, China does want to increase economic cooperation with Central Asian nations. It is a high time that Russia stops trying to hinder China's economic influence in Central Asia. Most of these nations are desperately in need of investment to jump start their economies. It is clear given what happened in Ukraine that many of these nations want to distance themselves from Russia. And it is better off China to fill the hole than the West trying to cozy up with them and later instigate a color revolution in these nations.
I don't think China is interested in trying weaken Russian influence in the Central Asia. It isn't in China's interest to do so. China isn't ready to send its troops to quash any color revolution uprisings like the Russians did within Central Asia. It is counter-productive to work against Russia as both Russia and China need to face a common enemy which is the West. But not weakening Russian influence doesn't equal to not expanding China's influence in Central Asia. South East Asia and Central Asia should be prioritized for expanding China's economic and political influence in the next few years.
If you think that Central Asian countries suddenly grew a spine out of nothing then I have a bridge to sell you. These kinds of big moves simply don't happen without the other major player in the region (hint: China) giving its blessings
It really does. Russia has been the spoiler of Chinese efforts to integrate the region countless of times. In every single Chinese initiative to increase trade, logistics, integration, Russia has played the spoiler.
Now this I agree with. Which is why reducing Russia's influence is good enough for now. Kicking it out of CA or clearly putting it in a deputy position there, can only happen after the Western threat is resolved
So it seems you recognize how big of an annoyance and hindrance Russia is to China's plans for CA then. I don't care about military/security stuff. However for trade, economics, logistics, Russia needs to gtfo
You contradict yourself. First you say Russia is blocking China, then you say China isn't interested in weakening Russian influence in Central Asia. How else do you propose to achieve Chinese plans for CA without reducing Russia's influence?
In any case it doesn't matter, we can debate and talk all we want but reality is reality. China has ready given the nod to Central Asia to reduce Russian influence.
For the end game, either Russia recognises its proper place in Central Asia, or China will keep weakening its influence there.
This doesn't make sense as well. Increasing Chinese influence in CA means that local elites have more leverage to reduce Russian influence in their countries. As I am sure you have noticed, CA states are running as far away from Russia as possible nowadays.
Contradictions again. Russia is playing a spoiler on China increasing its influence in CA. How can China achieve what you just wrote without decreasing Russia's influence?
Sure, it would be all good and great if Russia finally took the hint and made way, but both you and me know how Russia works. So yeah, decreasing influence is the way to go (which is what China has decided recently)
I think you are overthinking the situation. China is engaging with the Central Asian countries with or without Ukraine conflict and with or without Russian hindrance. It is just Russian invasion of Ukraine has both weakened Russia and frightened many Central Asian countries. Consequently, Russia is left with no choice and powerless from preventing China and Central Asian countries economic cooperation. It doesn't need any blessing because Russia simply can't no longer stop such development.
It is true that Russia has been a spoiler for Chinese engagement with Central Asian countries. However, China never tried to overpower such obstructions. It isn't that China can't but rather it isn't in China's interest to do so. China first and foremost priority in Central Asian countries is to prevent Western infiltration and color revolutions. Economic, political, and military engagement is just secondary consideration to such priority. That's why China is very patient about this even though China isn't happy about such arrangement. But it doesn't mean China doesn't want to expand its influence in Central Asian countries but it is looking at the right opportunity without upsetting Russia and granting an opening to the West.
There is no question that China should become the number one trading partners with all Central Asian countries. China is simply much bigger economy and is the only country that can help them to develop and modernize.
Russia has been blocking China's influence in Central Asian countries but China hasn't outright challenged such hindrance. China isn't trying to weaken Russia which would sour relationship between Russia and China. That's why China is very patient and wait until the opportunity to arrive. And right now and within the few years China has the best chance to cement economic and trades influence within Central Asian countries without upsetting Russia.
China doesn't believe in zero-sum game.
The problem is most of these elites probably prefer the West except that they are afraid of being ostracized and overthrow. The West and its influence and storytelling is still too much of appeal to many naive people. Reducing Russian influence will only increase the Western influence. Increasing Chinese influence can either reducing Western influence and Russian influence.
Again, China's goal is to increase its influence in the region not decrease Russian influence in the region. The goal is even if Russia tried to play spoiler, it can't. And right now, Russia simply can't stop China from increasing its influence.
They can accept multiple payment systems. Even US has stores that use UnionPay, doesn't mean they stop using Visa. UnionPay works in many western countries.
The last thing China needs is to be penny wise pound foolish. Russian cooperation is needed in a major Westpac conflict which is much more important than anything to do with Central Asia.
This also also shows that Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan can't be trusted, as they'll go with whoever they think is stronger. So if China isn't winning in an overwhelming stomp, they can switch sides to the west.
There is a certainly an element of being "untrustworthy" here but I would say that Russia's behaviour itself has driven this. Russia's invasion on Ukraine is ringing big red alarm bells for all of Central Asia for both of their elites and their populations
Second element is that the Russian model is a failed one. I sometimes go and check their newspapers in their local languages and you will see 2 things there.
Either praise for the Western model (this has went down a lot recently) or praise for the Chinese model (gaining ground quickly). Nobody there seriously believes that the Russian model can and should be the blueprint for the future of their country.
As such I don't blame CA when they move away from Russia. China is far far more preferable as a partner to CA than Russia for the following reasons:
- China doesn't meddle in their internal affairs (which Russia does in CA)
- China can offer more economic benefits to these countries and their people.
- China can credibly offer an alternative (and quite compelling) model of development to the region that Russia simply can't do because its model is a failure.
- China doesn't have the reputation of habitually using its military to invade other countries. Contrast that with Russia, and you see why the overwhelming majority of their elites are terrified of Russia and thus are quickly moving towards China nowadays
And why does trust or not trust here matters? Countries are all about interests. Why does China and Africa cooperate. China and Middle East, China and Vietnam (lol). As long as interests are enough you can do a lot of things. If you see that you lost strength and thus countries turn away from you, you have no-one to blame than yourself for being weak
So yeah, for Russia's weakening in CA its due to their own fault. Their weak economy, weak diplomacy, weak R&D, weak (for a "superpower") military, weak industries, weak and incompetent national leaders etc.
China ain't doing any 5D moves. It simply focuses on itself, gets stronger, and naturally more "allies" are coming to hug its thigh
Trust matters because ideally you have others that will take punches for you, like how the US is doing with EU and how it failed to do with Saudi Arabia. When US started weakening due to the Ukraine War, Saudi Arabia jumped ship too. China already earned African trust, it's a whole thing in its own.
in contrast to Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia, look at Australia or North Korea. North Korea will almost certainly help China if called upon even if China is losing. Australia will almost certainly help if US calls on it even if US is losing.
That's the difference between a relationship built on trust (a misplaced trust by EU but trust nonetheless) and one built purely because one side is strong. You don't want to get too close to those who jump at the first sign of trouble.
If Central Asians actually are wanting to learn from the Chinese model, then that's fine. But too often there's countries with no intent of learning from China, only extracting concessions from China. We've seen this in Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia many times.
If you were in their position, wouldn't you try to have a diverse set of friends and allies? Nobody believes that China will make a big sacrifice to save Kazakhstan. If Russia invades Kazakhstan tomorrow, China would complain and threaten them, but would China fight for Kazakhstan or send weapons? It's best for them to have good relations with both China and the US.
But that's fine for China. The big economies of West Asia and the Arab world, like Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Egypt all have markets larger than the entire central Asian region. Central Asia and its resources are nice to have but not important, the region matters to China mostly for connections to west Asia and Europe. So a Kazakhstan that has good relations with everyone, including EU, Russia and China, might actually be good for China. That's the perfect transit country and perfect for smuggling in the case of sanctions as in Russia now
Exactly, friendly or neutral to everyone, not stopping use of Mir unilaterally. It's just a bad move with mostly costs and not benefits.
Russia still hosts millions of their migrant workers and those migrants contribute remittances, so it's not like banning Mir helps them in any way.