Science Thread

BoraTas

Captain
Registered Member
Every few years the media reports a net positive fusion breakthrough. It reminds me of the old days, when during the oil crisis of the 1970s, it seemed that every few months the media reported on a promising new car engine that could run on water.

Nuclear fusion breakthroughs are the modern day equivalent of a
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, but simpletons keep falling for it because they need hopium, which is the second best thing after copium.

October 8, 2013:
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February 13, 2014:
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August 17, 2021:
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December 3, 2021:
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And you need a Q plasma (plasma energy out/plasma energy in) of ~100 to achieve economically viable electricity production. The EU has a project called DEMO scheduled for completion in the 2050s. They target a Q Plasma of 25. It will generate ~230 MW of net electricity. It will be absurdly expensive and, knowing the EU, I am skeptical about the date. ITER, a much simpler design with a Q plasma of 10 and no electricity production, has cost 20+ billion Euros, more than 100% over budget. And it is a 34-year-old project with nothing to show for it yet. They plan to demonstrate a Q plasma of 10 in 2035! The electricity you could extract from the ITER would be ~190 MW, if you could. That would mean minus 130 MW of net electricity. Economists believe even at a Q plasma of 100, fusion-sourced electricity would be rather expensive compared to solar, wind and gas.

So I have no idea where this "free and limitless" energy meme came from. Fusion power is both very limited and expensive. And it is always some decades away. Maybe that's because nobody is funding a method that likely won't be economically viable ever.
 

by78

General
The above headlines are because the definition of a net gain is different every time by adjusting technical specifications. In 2013-14, the denominator was only a fraction of the laser light amounting to 1%, so fusion preserved about 1% of the energy in the light. In 2021, about 50% of the energy in the light was generated. Today's announcement is that 120% of the energy in the light was generated (in one year they have gone from 1.3 megajoules of energy for 2 megajoules of laser light to 2.5 megajoules of energy for 2 megajoules of laser light). Now, it's true that even with today's announcement, the energy used to generate the light is many times greater than what is in the actual light, so it's still not practical.

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But the reality is that these repetitive headlines hide the fact that the US and it's allies are making steady progress on this goal, and if they succeed it would be the biggest economic revolution since the discovery of oil.

No, the reality is that they've never achieved actual net gain, but they've certainly caught up with
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,
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, and
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in terms of creative accounting and deliberate misrepresentation.

Which begs the question, why did you share this when you knew it wasn't true?

Repetitive headlines are not the same as genuine progress, and sounding like a broken record isn't the same as making a substantive contribution. The bigger the lie, the more it must be repeated.

The bigger the troll, the more he sounds like a broken record.
 
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HereToSeePics

Junior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
The United States announces breakthrough in nuclear fusion:
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Mastering Fusion technology would allow the US and it's allies to harness unlimited energy.

LLNL’s experiment surpassed the fusion threshold by delivering 2.05 megajoules of energy to the target, resulting in 3.15 MJ of fusion energy output

For perspective, 3.19 megajoules of energy is about 875 W of energy, or roughly $0.10 USD worth of electricity. Also, the output is measured as pure heat/radiation. Capturing the heat, converting it to steam, driving a turbine, spinning a generator, I would be surprised if it breaks even.

a gold can the size of a pencil eraser containing a peppercorn-size fuel capsule. Heated to millions of degrees, the gold emits x-rays that vaporize the diamond shell of the capsule. The blasted diamond implodes the fuel, compressing and heating it.

Not to trivialize the success(it's note worthy in terms of nuclear physics/plasma science/materials), but this is step is similar to sending the first monkey into space vs having human colonies on Mars. The typical modern nuclear reactor produces >1 gigawatts of energy, meaning it would require scaling up the above fusion process up over a million times.
 
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JebKerman

Junior Member
Registered Member
If you read the NIF paper/press release (previously, before the official DOE crap) they don't say anything about "net energy gain". They produced 3MJ out while putting 2MJ laser energy in, significant increase compared to previous tests because they surrounded the target with a strong magnetic field. However, to charge the 2MJ laser they actually used 400MJ of electrical energy!

In any case NIF was never about producing power, it is all about nuclear weapons research. Unlike ITER, no one is seriously working on how to generate power using this. The hype in western media is completely for propaganda purposes.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Oh dear, the "fusion is coming this time for real" stories have started again.
No need to discuss much about it, I will just say this meme: "fusion is 30 years away"...

That's what they said in the 1970s, the same in 2000, and low and behold, same in 2022. I would suggest deleting any fusion-related news from your memory and just enjoy the rest of your life doing meaningful things than believing that fusion is coming in 30 years or whatever.

Might as well as treat the news about this "breakthrough" as a fart in the wind
 

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
Why all this scepticism and cynicism... Has the United States Department of Energy ever officially announced an ignition breakthrough before? Do you think that they are lying...

Positive net nuclear fusion output has been achieved, which means that it will almost certainly be scaled up to be much larger for public use... The reason why this is a big deal is because the process of nuclear fusion does not produce green house gases like fossil fuels, it does not produce nuclear wastes like nuclear fission, and it is much much more efficient than renewables such was solar and wind power, and its fuel is extremely abundant. Nuclear fusion is like 10 million times more energy efficient per mass than natural gas is.

About 0.0156% of hydrogen atoms are on Earth are deuterium atoms and hydrogen atoms are found plentifully... There are found in sea water... There is 1,350,000,000,000,000,000,000 kg of sea water in the Earth's ocean...

I just hope that China and a number of other countries also themselves achieve this breakthrough...
 

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
Oh dear, the "fusion is coming this time for real" stories have started again.
No need to discuss much about it, I will just say this meme: "fusion is 30 years away"...

That's what they said in the 1970s, the same in 2000, and low and behold, same in 2022. I would suggest deleting any fusion-related news from your memory and just enjoy the rest of your life doing meaningful things than believing that fusion is coming in 30 years or whatever.

Might as well as treat the news about this "breakthrough" as a fart in the wind
Has the United States Department of Energy ever before officially announced a break through in ignition - net positive power output from input with regards to nuclear fusion?
 

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
Don't care, doesn't matter. Net positive output.. how was the laser charged again lol

As far as I am concerned, fusion is still "30 years away"
When there is a total outage at a power station, auxiliary diesel generators are mostly utilized to provide the power to restart the first generating unit at the station... After it has started again, the generation of electrical power is sustained by the generating unit itself, without the need for the auxiliary generators...
 
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