Hyperwarp
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I think the 2 is for 2019. 1st batch appears to be limited to a total of 15. 2023 onwards the newer version will be available. Looks like the sanctions are bitting really hard.
Russian Su-57 Aircraft Thread (PAK-FA and IAF FGFA)
- Thread starter A Bar Brother
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I think the 2 is for 2019. 1st batch appears to be limited to a total of 15. 2023 onwards the newer version will be available. Looks like the sanctions are bitting really hard.
Multiple opinions on Su-57 topic under J-20 thread, quite weird... I have only a few things to say to those who are seriously interested in Su-57's fate -- rather than seeing it black and white, I'd kindly suggest that you see the big picture regarding the whole VKS. For example, the Russian C.Bank officials have recently mentioned their budget plans for the next 5-years which involves the military budget. The budget which realizes the state armament plans and premature projects such as this one with lower technological readiness has to be postponed. Feel free to judge it, It was only a friendly suggestion and It usually leads to a more reasonable conclusion rather than a dilemma of "exist or non-existent".
Yes, the VVS has basically been focusing their resources on airplanes like the Su-30SM because it delivers them more capabilities vs the cost than something like the Su-57. A large fraction of their older aircraft did not have digital cockpits or multi-role capabilities for example. Making those upgrades is more cost effective. Besides, like you said, the Su-57 has not yet reached the desired level of technological maturity to enter mass production. I think in two years the Su-57 will enter mass production however. By then North Stream 2, TurkStream, and the Power of Siberia pipelines should be active, generating revenue, and the new engine should be entering mass production.
I do not think it is just sanctions. Their turbine engine manufacturing R&D folks have had a huge load of work dropped on them. NPO Saturn was made to manufacture marine gas turbines, at least two new models, and I also heard they had some of their staff made to help Aviadvigatel make progress on the PD-14 engine which is considered a high priority item, and had been stuck in development, because the Aviadvigatel team did not have the necessary skills. In turn, once the PD-14 is available, there are supposed to be multiple versions of it made available, including higher power versions like the PD-35.
Focusing is an interesting word, but it has no relationship to RuAF.
Even USAF is pickier in its development.
The Su-30SM is a decent multi-role airplane. They are also buying quite a lot of Su-35S fighters. What's better? To watch their current airplanes rust away while they wait until the stealth aircraft becomes ready, like the US Marines did? Or to buy 4+ gen aircraft like the US Navy did with the Super Hornet and take their time to get the stealth fighter right? Most modern wars are against insurgents or second rate powers. The stealth fighters are only useful for near peer wars. Which Russia is not interested into getting into for the short term at least. What they need is a viable deterrent and the 4+ gen aircraft plus the new air defense systems do that.
without a competive modern aircraft means the end of all meaningful export businesses. And we know how dependent the Russian industry on exports is.
It's not just that Russia suffers some money bottleneck but they are losing the engineering race.
I do not think so. Like I said in another thread in 2017 Russia earned more with agricultural produce than weapons exports.
No sovereign nation with an independent policy will want to touch the F-35 with a barge pole because neither can the source code be inspected, nor can you disable the phone home logistics software used for maintenance. Unless you are Israel and I am unsure that even they have access to the source code. Russia is never going to sell much to NATO countries or other USA vassal states so, that leaves them with what? China, India, Middle Eastern countries, and Algeria. Because their other clients have enough trouble to pay for a Su-35 let alone a stealth aircraft, like the Su-57, which would cost them twice as much. Also China has been making large inroads into those other countries, like African states and some Southeast Asian states, which cannot afford top notch Russian hardware. If anything I think Russia should have had a cheap 4+ generation single engine fighter to compete with the Grippen and the JF-17 for those countries which can purchase neither of them for some reason. The MiG-29 was a sales disaster because it is both too expensive and has too little capabilities. If you upgrade it, it then becomes more expensive than the much more capable Su-27 derivatives because of the low production rate. Still, quite soon that 4th gen single-engine market will be flooded with 2nd hand F-16s once NATO countries and other USA vassal states upgrade to the F-35. They'll be so cheap, it will be like the Leopard 2 exports a decade back, but in an even wider scale. So the window for selling cheap single engine aircraft is closing quite fast. The Grippen NG might have a chance because it has better specs than an F-16 and the Swedes lease them but the other alternatives will flop I think.
The Su-27 also came online like a decade after the F-15 and still enjoyed tremendous sales. The Su-27 had an horrendously troubled development program with multiple pilot fatalities in testing. If anything I think the Russians need the time to get the Su-57 right. Both the new engine and the mass production of composite aircraft. The Chinese have not managed to export the J-10 let alone the J-20 even if they wanted to export it at this stage which, it seems, they do not. All J-20 production is for the Chinese market at this point.
A couple years back I would not have given the Russians a chance in hell of mass producing the Su-57 with their available capabilities without some sort of design compromise. But go back to today and the Izdelie 30 engine is in flight testing. The Irkut MC-21 features a large all composite wing which signals to me that they have managed to master the construction of large composite panels in a cost effective manner. Where there is more uncertainly is in the avionics, radar, headset and other such systems. But they've had years of flying test beds to fine tune the avionics software, so it should at least fly well. I know they have enough high performance native processor designs to do the signal processing if they decide to go that route. The Elbrus-8S has 500 GFlops performance and is manufactured at 28 nm which is a widely available manufacturing node. It has more power than the processors used in the F-22. Quite likely more compute power than the processors used in the early iterations of the F-35 as well. Even if they had no such capabilities even off the shelf microprocessors would be able to handle the task for at least the initial production run. Also, in due time, given that you can even buy things like AR and VR headsets in the personal consumer market today, do you think those won't be available to other nation states forever?
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A competitive aircraft? Well that depends on your understanding of competitiveness my friend (I dont mean to offend btw). The Russian 4+ Gen Fighters are terribly cheaper than their western counterparts and that's always a win. And furthermore, Su-35S or Su-30SM are quite capable -- I mean they can prove groriously under right conditions and their most probable adversaries will be 4/4+ gen as well.
I don't know what makes people so confident about PAK-FA Program being terminated but It still exists -- so does the famous FGFA Program. Su-57 needs the right power package to perform right and that package requires time to mature. They're not in a hurry or anything when it comes to 5th Gen. Only a handful of countries are fielding 5th Gen Fighters at this point and they're either far from or are no alarming threats to Russia at this day. VKS has a lot on its' plate and I think they made a logical choice by officially postponing Su-57 procurement and focus on 4+ Gens such as Su-35S, Su-30SM & MiG-35 instead, for the time being. They're fielding some 10 Su-57s and that should be sufficient to test & train with it for the next 4-5 years, then we shall see if <Izdeliye 30> does the trick or not.
They're planning their budget properly to preserve their economy growth throughout the next 4-years period so It's understandable to postpone some of the projects such as new aircraft carrier, LHDs and enormous Guided Missile Destroyers.