Thoughts on this analysis?
Russian Military News, Reports, Data, etc.
- Thread starter tphuang
- Start date
SinoSoldier
Colonel
i am sure there are many Nato planes flying around. any one can see fire. I merely pointing out the official releases are 12 to 24 hours late.
The drone maybe able to distract the top dome, so S-300 is out of the equation. But OSA and all AK630(or Kashtan?) has their own FCR and should be able to engage
Also what do they mean by distract? No TB-2 weapon can out range S-300, if TB-2 come within range the Russians just gonna shoot it won't they?
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Rehashes the same tired and bogus talking points I have heard before over and over.
I recently found this video around the web.
As well as what he thinks is or will be the Russian way of war going forward. Video is from around 2018.
I can't say I totally agree with what he is saying. I think he makes politically loaded arguments.
But he still makes an interesting argument in line with US government official talking points.
And he does provide some candid comments with regards to the real situation in there.
Oh this lecture was made in the US Military Academy in West Point.
I know it is long but I highly recommend watching this. I watched it at 2x speed.
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He's wrong on a lot of things but is right on some as well.
Overall I think Russia's strategy was to do a (poor) impression of an American shock and awe for the first few days, then expect Ukrainian forces to collapse/defect without much fighting. There was little will from Russia to overwhelm Ukrainian forces directly with all the tools they had. Had they done that, this war would have been over already.
I don't think the plan was to capture Kiev within the first few days, but there definitely was a plan to surround it. The one Ukrainian that did collapse quickly was the Kiev front. It's the only one where Russians applied the doctrine of overwhelming force with heavy CAS support. I think the reason they did that was because of the situation of Homostel Airport - they needed to get there ASAP to relieve the airborne forces.
But they didn't repeat the same on the eastern flank, so you had one force sitting outside Kiev doing nothing, and the other one engaging in skirmishes 40km away around Chernihiv.
My impression is that the Russians thought they could win this war with a minimal show of force. Instead they're now stuck in a real war where the death toll could reach hundreds of thousands.
I don't see any evidence of Russia suffering "heavy" losses. Most of the evidence on websites like Oryx are Ukrainian tanks that have been labelled as Russian. If you go on a website like Reddit, many of the stuck/disabled tanks are clearly Ukrainian (digital camo, no Russian markings). There's such a large volume of propaganda about this war it's impossible to debunk it until after the war is over.
It's the Ukrainians who've had the most losses, both in manpower and equipment. Simply because of the fact that an airforce operating at 25% capacity is going to do more damage than no airforce at all. Of course that doesn't matter if your enemy can't land a finishing blow. They'll probably continue receiving arms slowly from the west and eventually turn into a guerilla army (which I think has already happened in some places).
The sinking of Moskva is pure Russian arrogance. The sinking of the Saratov had all the hallmarks of a new anti-ship missile attack in the Ukrainian inventory as I pointed out when it happened. They were lucky the Ukrainians picked a ship that was docked and not heavily manned. But instead of heeding the warning they were caught asleep at the wheel again and ended up losing their flagship, with probably dozens of sailors dead.
Despite the sinking of the Moskva, the torture of Russian POWs, and the Ukrainian war crimes against their own civilians, I've not seen any indication Russia is going to kick their campaign into full war mode. The Ukrainians or America don't seem to want to back down either.
Instead I think the Russians will continue dithering incompetently towards the finish line. No signs from either side for it stopping. The more the Russians advance, the more their hatred of Ukrainians increases, and the more the Ukrainians are turning to their death cult like beliefs in NATO and Anglo imperialism. I've lost interest in this war. The military side of things don't matter any more.
Regardless of how Russia lost the cruiser, Moskva. In the context of the current conflict in Ukraine, its impact will be relatively minor, because most of the fighting is done by the other smaller, newer warships. But for sure, this is a massive blow to the prestige of the Russian Navy. Slava-class cruisers like the Moskva are irreplaceable for Russia. The Russian Navy would lose not just its prestige, but also a key component for its 'fleet in being' deterrence in he Black Sea.
Even if Russia has the Leader-class cruiser planned, it is still decades, and billions of rubles away from commissioning one. So for the next 10 years at least. It doesn't look like Russia has a domestic replacement for the Moskva.
Most realistically, Russia could replace the Moskva with an Admiral Grigorovich-class Frigate as the new flagship of the Black Sea Fleet. Or have a new Gorshkov-class Frigate become the next flagship. Nevertheless, the Black Sea fleet would not have a cruiser anymore. Its prestige and 'fleet in being' value would not recover to pre-Ukraine conflict levels.
If only Russia was open to importing warships from China, they could at least import partially complete Type 052Ds or Type 055s. Preferably retaining their Chinese APARs, sensor suites, and propulsion. Then fit them out with other domestic equipment and weaponry that could eventually go into the their future Leader-class cruisers. The deal could also include transfer fo technology. That way Russia could at least have more immediate replacements for those aging Slava-class cruisers and more. In addition, Russia could finally possess modern major air defence ships in the shorter term. This has been long overdue.
I do understand that Russian and Chinese weapon systems will have incompability issues. But its not an insurmountable problem.
Importing warships from China should not be seen as humiliation by Russia. It is actually becoming more of a necessity. Russia have ordered Mistral LHDs from France before, a deal that was doomed for political reasons. The US is ordering FREMM-class frigates from Italy to replace its failed LCS program. At this point in time, excessive Russian pride is no longer useful.
Even if Russia has the Leader-class cruiser planned, it is still decades, and billions of rubles away from commissioning one. So for the next 10 years at least. It doesn't look like Russia has a domestic replacement for the Moskva.
Most realistically, Russia could replace the Moskva with an Admiral Grigorovich-class Frigate as the new flagship of the Black Sea Fleet. Or have a new Gorshkov-class Frigate become the next flagship. Nevertheless, the Black Sea fleet would not have a cruiser anymore. Its prestige and 'fleet in being' value would not recover to pre-Ukraine conflict levels.
If only Russia was open to importing warships from China, they could at least import partially complete Type 052Ds or Type 055s. Preferably retaining their Chinese APARs, sensor suites, and propulsion. Then fit them out with other domestic equipment and weaponry that could eventually go into the their future Leader-class cruisers. The deal could also include transfer fo technology. That way Russia could at least have more immediate replacements for those aging Slava-class cruisers and more. In addition, Russia could finally possess modern major air defence ships in the shorter term. This has been long overdue.
I do understand that Russian and Chinese weapon systems will have incompability issues. But its not an insurmountable problem.
Importing warships from China should not be seen as humiliation by Russia. It is actually becoming more of a necessity. Russia have ordered Mistral LHDs from France before, a deal that was doomed for political reasons. The US is ordering FREMM-class frigates from Italy to replace its failed LCS program. At this point in time, excessive Russian pride is no longer useful.
Frankly speaking, I now think we're moving in that direction.
Sensor suites/weapons will be local, obvsly.
I think if the Russians had any sense they would license production of the T-14 tank engine and the marine gas turbines to China.
And use China as a second source. Or just plain order them from China. I know they think this is their precious technology.
But they can't manufacture either at scale. And for China to duplicate this technology is just a waste of time.
Back in WW2 the US manufactured the Merlin engine. And it was even licensed to make a tank engine in an UK locomotive factory.
That is how you win wars. Not by keeping critical technology like that close to your vest and not manufacturing anything worth a damn.
T-14 tank engine.
And use China as a second source. Or just plain order them from China. I know they think this is their precious technology.
But they can't manufacture either at scale. And for China to duplicate this technology is just a waste of time.
Back in WW2 the US manufactured the Merlin engine. And it was even licensed to make a tank engine in an UK locomotive factory.
That is how you win wars. Not by keeping critical technology like that close to your vest and not manufacturing anything worth a damn.
T-14 tank engine.