Russian Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

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Abominable

Major
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MarKoz81 said:
Here's another thought:

In 2014 the Russian ruble stood at ~32RUB to 1USD. Now it's ~74RUB to 1USD.

30 million USD is 2,2 billion rubles in 2021 which is 70 million USD at 2014 rates. That's what the price would be if the ruble was still floating per pre-2014 rules. 70 million per plane is plausible from what I've seen in the presentation. Especially is things like engine or weapons integration are not included in the baseline version but are part of the second part of the contract i.e. "maintenance" under Matriyoshka.

Russia does not need to import almost anything for its weapons since they are largely self-sufficient, especially since 2014 and the sanctions. Thanks to Su-57 they have everything they need. Just build a smaller airframe and stick a single engine instead of two.

This means that for the purpose of aggressive export strategy they can price their exports in rubles but denominate them in dollars - meaning they will effectively transfer the benefit of weaker ruble directly onto the customer. It's not a very sustainable strategy for the entire contract but for the thing that matters in politics - the tender for the sale of the aircraft that does not have to involve hard LLC figures....you see where I am going with it?

Russia can "dump" the price of their jets by keeping them exactly at the natural market rate, and they can dump them by more than half.

This is - if you haven't noticed yet - Chinese approach to international trade competition. It worked wonders for China so why wouldn't it work for Russia especially that they are not the ones doing the rate-fixing. It's the western markets dumping the ruble.

Another thing that might play into this is why Russia was keeping their prices higher than the possible minimum in recent years - to gain hard currency reserves. Russia was selling at higher prices because that's how they got ability to gain currency which was denied to them through sanctions. Now they have perhaps other priorities. Perhaps they decided that for high-end and in-demand systems they will keep the price but for this particular product it's going to conquer the markets on price alone? It is not impossible. And in terms of strategic play it is not dumb either.

It's just that this kind of historic irony is almost too ironic to be possible. Which is probably why I kinda want it to be true. I prefer my world to be an absurdist comedy of errors and this really looks like it.

And there's one more thing - the name. Checkmate in English means checkmate but in Russian шахматы means just the game of chess. The name - for what it is intended to signal - doesn't work in Russian. It's either a brilliant idea or a hilarious rookie mistake. Either way it's too good to be true so I want it to be true.
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Regarding dumping and China's exports. The difference is that military jet purchases are not an ongoing purchase. China can (could) continue selling the same things to countries year on year. Sure with military jets there are add ons, maintenance and so forth but the purchase itself is a once a generation thing. If Vietnam buys 2 squadrons of these, they aren't going to keep coming back every year to buy more.

If the price doesn't include the engine it's not really an apples to apples comparison. I don't think the Russians are trying to scam anyone. Countries who are interested will have a number of offers from competing manufacturers which will include armaments, training.

Isn't chess just "шах" in Russian?
 
A

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
sheogorath said:
Kuznetsov was built from the grounds-up as a full flat top, Baku/Gorshkov/Vikramatdiya wasn't.

800px-Carrier_Baku.jpg


Also, I don't get all the mocking. If I wanted to see people waving their jingonationalistic dicks like little childs, I'd stick to anglo forums.
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I was expecting a flyway cost of $50-60m, which would be good deal for what is on offer. $25m is a price that undercuts Russia's own old 4th gen planes. Don't you find that strange?

The comment you quoted was uncalled for, but a lot of us are still trying to get our heads around the price of these things. I'm an admirer of Russian (and Soviet) military and the Russian military ethos of getting things done simple and to the point.

The presentation I saw today reminded me of something Elon Musk would do rather than the Russian military I'm used to.
 
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pmc

Major
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Abominable said:
The presentation I saw today reminded me of something Elon Musk would do rather than the Russian military I'm used to.
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Whats wrong with Elon Musk?. Elon Musk managed to sell Tesla below cost and created a big market. now Chinese made Tesla are globally exported and Elon is enjoying stock market returns.
Airbus and Boeing routinely gave discounts from list prices.
Even if cost of manufacture is $60m and they want to sell it for $30m. it is perfect business as it will built relationships with Air forces and those pilots may one day becomes political leaders or running commercial airlines.
 
phrozenflame

phrozenflame

Junior Member
Registered Member
pmc said:
Whats wrong with Elon Musk?. Elon Musk managed to sell Tesla below cost and created a big market. now Chinese made Tesla are globally exported and Elon is enjoying stock market returns.
Airbus and Boeing routinely gave discounts from list prices.
Even if cost of manufacture is $60m and they want to sell it for $30m. it is perfect business as it will built relationships with Air forces and those pilots may one day becomes political leaders or running commercial airlines.
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Why not sell at 10m and donate 50m and build advanced schools? Great to build relationships, tomorrow the student could be business leaders, pilots, politicians, etc. Even perfecter business sense.
 
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pmc

Major
Registered Member
phrozenflame said:
Why not sell at 10m and donate 50m and build advanced schools? Great to build relationships, tomorrow the student could be business leaders, pilots, politicians, etc. Even perfecter business sense.
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you cannot upgrade society by randomly dumping money in third world. otherwise every country will be equal.
It is quick delivery of superior weopons that will make that country obliged to return favors. 5G fighters is unique product.
I am just waiting for Korea to export its half 5G fighter.
 
A

anzha

Captain
Registered Member
pmc said:
Whats wrong with Elon Musk?. Elon Musk managed to sell Tesla below cost and created a big market. now Chinese made Tesla are globally exported and Elon is enjoying stock market returns.
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Elon Musk, his good and bad aspects, are a rather deep topic at this point. However, they have zilch to do with the Checkmate or any other Russian military topic. Shall we keep on topic, please?
 
A

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
pmc said:
Whats wrong with Elon Musk?. Elon Musk managed to sell Tesla below cost and created a big market. now Chinese made Tesla are globally exported and Elon is enjoying stock market returns.
Airbus and Boeing routinely gave discounts from list prices.
Even if cost of manufacture is $60m and they want to sell it for $30m. it is perfect business as it will built relationships with Air forces and those pilots may one day becomes political leaders or running commercial airlines.
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My point was Elon Musk has events where he promises supercars like the roadster but delivers very little. I don't want to derail the topic so that's all I'll say about him.

The Russian MIC isn't a charity there's no way they would sell it for less than it costs them to manufacture.

As others have said, it's likely the $25-30m is likely a basic stripped down price, adding on extras would put the price more in line with expectations.

Anyway, the price shouldn't distract from what is a very interesting and capable jet.
 
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