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Referencing Kommersant, which may be disputed.

Here's a direct TASS source discussing this:

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Nationalistic propaganda/uninformed article piece, hey just using your own words here.
What is good for the goose is good for the gander.
Posters like to take a dump on SCMP because of Minnie Chan, who I admit is a terrible journal list on par with Military Watch Magazine, but the article in question was not written by Minnie but someone else with reference to a third source.
 
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Inst

Captain
Except that your argument is based on total baloney, unsubstantiated claims and terribly sourced articles. I see no reason why such baseless claims deserve the level of respect you demand.
This is not the first time I have to deal with Russian military fans who still maintain the fanciful hard on that Russia still have a magical lead in terms of military progression vis a vis China despite languishing for darn near 2 decades.

I wouldn't say that I'm a Russian military fan. I just acknowledge when they have superior equipment to the Chinese, even when acknowledging that there are areas where they are behind (electronics, surface warships) and that the Chinese will likely surpass them in most areas given greater funding and time. For instance, the Armata is better than the comparable ZTZ-99, given its remote-controlled turret. Another Russian advantage would be this artillery piece, which exceeds that of the comparable Chinese system in terms of rate of fire.
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That said, the Russians are broke; the Armata is limited to very few units, and the 2S35 is likely to have similar issues with deployment.

TBH, on the land, the Russian Armed Forces are probably still superior to the PLA, given that the PLA's modernization has been more oriented towards deterring the Americans and taking Taiwan. The biggest developments we've seen are in naval and aircraft fields, while things like the ZTZ-99 and ZTZ-96 are fairly good for what's intended, but I think the Chinese consider their Russian border secure (i.e, no one wants a nuclear exchange), and that the Chinese don't want to aggravate Sino-Russian relations by posing a land military threat to a notoriously paranoid power.
 

Tirdent

Junior Member
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The missile which insofar we have yet to see an credible photo or video of it actually being deployed from a Su-57, but we are to believe can be done. We don't even know if the dimensions of the missile would allow it to be fitted on a J-20.

Like the Kh-59MK2 cruise missile (larger and about twice the weight), which had only been seen as a plastic airshow mock-up for 3 three years straight, until in 2018 suddenly we get video footage of a launch from the Su-57 rear bay. No preliminaries such as confirmation that the Russian air force will be buying it in the first place, no reports of manufacturing progress, no photos of external captive carry tests on other aircraft. All of which will have happened in the meantime of course, it merely wasn't publicized.

It was vapour ware until one day, just like that, it wasn't anymore...

Then let me know when Russia actually has a working system on the Su-57(edit: A production model, not some protoype), instead of making statements such as "slated for the future" or "in development".
I can make the proclamation that in the near future a big purple T-Rex is gonna descend from the sky and gobble people up, does not make it any more credible.

This is silly. How am I supposed to show you a production model of the DIRCM system when not even the first production example of the aircraft itself has emerged? That said, a working instance is pretty easy: all of the Su-57 prototypes fitted with clear domes aft of and/or below the canopy have a functional system installed. It's not "slated for future development", it is planned to enter service as soon as the aircraft does - you must be thinking of the F-35 counterpart there (where DIRCM is only tentatively part of the upgrade road map).

Why is everyone so sure the Russians are even capable of getting such a laser "point defense" system on Su-57? Why does there need to be pages and pages of speculation and doubt when it comes to the effectiveness of Chinese systems that is not only fielded but fielded in large numbers (e.g. AShBM) but we haven't seen one source suggesting Su-57's laser point defense system is a concrete future upgrade.

Because the term "laser point defence system" (which suggests a hard-kill system) is a misnomer, it's actually "only" a laser-based DIRCM (i.e. a soft-kill measure). Perhaps this is an erroneous translation of a Russian source by somebody who is not technically literate or at least not familiar with the existence and function of DIRCM systems. Let's just stop calling it a point defence system - it isn't, so you can relax and believe.

That said, I put the only in quotes for a reason - it's still no mean feat and is one of only two such systems which are known to be making tangible progress. The Su-57 has every chance of becoming the first fast jet to enter service with DIRCM (even with all the delays in getting it operational, the equivalent on the F-35 keeps slipping to the right too, it's only a company-funded initiative by N-G so far).

What makes DIRCM combat proven? Because it's Russian and the Russians have said so? Sure some people claim some bubbles on the Su-57 is certainly warfare changing laser systems designed to blind or even burn through incoming missiles.

If by "some people" you mean the developers of the Su-57 EO sensor suite... putting it this way that kind of undersells the credibility of the claim though.

Hyperbole is universal, and you can bet the Chinese engage in it too. Americans, ditto.

Successful fighter DIRCM is difficult to test and credit as "combat proven". It's been alleged in the past for the F-35.

No it hasn't, Northrop-Grumman have announced (5 years ago) that they were developing a DIRCM system for the F-35 as a company-funded project. There is no firm date for entry into service AFAIK.

In any case, DIRCM is considered far less effective against modern missiles which are able to home in onto the source of the emission.

That's where the laser-based part comes into play. A laser saturates the detector chip in the missile IIR seeker so it sees a completely "white" picture - there is no information to be obtained from it any longer that would allow guidance to work out the direction to the source/target. With a low-power system some IIR seekers (scanning systems like IRIS-T or Mica-IR, as opposed to staring seekers) might be able to do better because the detector array sweeps in and out of the beam, but given sufficient power there's not really anything you can do.

That AIM-9X was spoofed by conventional flares over Syria is a clutter rejection failure in the image processing software, it can be remedied fairly easily by upgrading the algorithms. Laser-based DIRCM works by defeating the very principle on which the seeker operates and is therefore very hard to counter.
 
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D

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I'm saying that it's without RAM and that as GaN becomes deployed, that the RAM will be installed or upgraded. The deal isn't whether it sneaks up to the F-35 or F-22, the deal is whether it can close to WVR and change the game to a dogfight. As I've mentioned before, jamming can tremendously decrease the detection range of stealth stealth aircraft (it's roughly every negative 10 dBsm results in 90% reduction in functional range). The other thing is that stealth technology, whether shaping or RAM, is a lot more effective vs Ku-band and above seekers on radar-guided missiles than vs low-band AEW&C radars or medium-band fighter radars. The result could be that missiles launched at the Su-57 could fail to achieve independent tracking except at short ranges.
So basically you are admitting that the Su-57 is less then optimal without RAM and in order to combat the F-22/35s effectively it will need RAM which would increase it's cost and render whatever cost reduction benefits obsolete. Good to know.
And somehow the Su-57 will magically waltz into IRST range of the F-22/35, the latter also having IRST with better if not greater range then the Su-57 to utilize is missiles. Free from enemy jamming, spoofing and AWACS. Wow, I never knew that war had an easy mode specifically for Russia.

Except that we have pictures of metamaterials being jammed onto J-10s. The retrofit isn't trivial, but neither is it impossible. As for support package costs, the Su-35 costs something like 35-50mn a piece. China paid $100mn a piece for the support package. A purchase of Su-57s is likely to be comparably expensive in terms of support package, but guess what? The J-20 also needs a support package.
And have we seen a J-10 being coated with RAM just like how one did spray paint a car ? The answer is no. The price of the J-20 will already cover the support package and the like seeing as China has no intention of exporting the fighter.

It's unclear as to whether the J-20 cost is stated for the full-rate production or the LRIP-equivalents.
Yeah right, so we are to belive that a production Su-57 is going to magically cost a mere 37 mil usd just because Russia says so, and from a shoddy website nontheless. What a load of bull.

And as I've stated before, the RMB is very undervalued compared to the USD on a PPP basis; it may reflect the cheaper cost of labor in China, but sooner or later it'll appreciate; China is slowly becoming an export power. When that comes, expect 5:1 USd or 4:1 USD instead of the current ~7:1.
Yeah and sooner or later a giant purple T-Rex is gonna be named our lord and saviour. And following the same principle, when China's PPP increase. The price of materials needed will also be adjusted accordingly. If the F-35 can still cost just a little over 110 million USD per copy with the size of the US economy, then China gets to play by the same rules as well.

Desperation. The Su-35S are already being exported, and the cost cited for the China deal is including support costs.
Then apply that principle to the Su-57 and stop your damn cherry picking.

Inflation is not a uniformly-applied figure, i.e, if the inflation figure is 3.5% it doesn't mean that my rice is all of a sudden going to be 3.5% more expensive. Indicators of inflation are based on a basket of goods purchased and some factors can be less expensive. To put it another way, the Russian GDP per capita in PPP (inflation adjusted) terms has been roughly constant since the Ukraine crisis. On the other hand, in nominal terms, the Russian GDP per capita has dropped about 25%, implying that exchange rate moves have been greater than inflation. In the long-run, inflation should push prices to effectively the same as before the exchange rate bomb, but that's in the long-run. In the short-run, the Su-57 is a bargain.
It does, and it also means that cost to import and ship materials for the production of the Su-57 is also going to rise. Russia likes to hide the cost of its weapons by writting it off in the defense budget but in the end someone has to pay the damn bill. And the Su-57 can be as cheap a bargain as it likes but it would not change the fact that there is little reason for China to spend vast sum of money and pilots and storage space for a foreign fighter that fills such a tiny niche and advantage.

It's more the nationalist card. I've been reading about the Imperial Japanese Army, and the shocking thing about it is that the IJA was basically similar to cats. That is to say, to a mouse it's an eldritch monstrosity that hunts it mercilessly. To humans, it's a cute and adorable companion animal. The IJA, basically, was well-suited to beating up GMD forces or hitting second-tier colonial troops in the Far East and Southeast Asian region. When confronted with a serious and modern army, such as that of the Soviet Union or United States, well, it got smashed, not merely on a quantitative level, but also a qualitative level. For instance, the 6.5mm Arisaka during the Second Sino-Japanese War was considered underpowered, akin to early 5.8mm ammunition in Chinese service, and Japanese artillery was so bad that even GMD artillery imported by Germany could outrange and outshoot it.

Yet the IJA, along with modern Japanese nationalists, went on / go on endlessly about the superiority, bravery, and power of the Imperial Japanese Army. What they can't admit is when their own country is bad, and that their entire colonial adventure was a terrible idea because they were a semi-modernized country around the time of the Second Sino-Japanese War that ended up going to war with the Soviet Union and the United States, both of which had technological and industrial advantages, in the latter, to obscene levels.

In the Japanese case, part of the problem was that they were in a weak and losing position, and had to take risks to be strategically viable. They had to believe in their own strengths, instead of making sincere and effective self-criticisms (one of the things Chinese nationalists get right is that they point out that the PLA tends to emphasize its weakness and flaws). In the Chinese case, the Chinese aren't in a losing position. While economic growth has slowed down, technological growth is speeding up, and there's no reason to hew to nationalist positions because the alternative is to admit defeat.

The PLA can make a rational decision as to whether the Su-57 meets Chinese needs, mainly based on the price. Buying the Su-57 will, of course, get hewing and hemming from Western observers, but what's the point of being so sensitive to foreign criticism?
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"Double facepalm", stop trying to make this about Chinese nationalism (though I do admit it is a persistent) and annoying thread on this forum at times. Because no amount of decrying Chinese nationalism is going to remove the fact that overall the Su-57 provides little advantage over the J-20 which the PLAAF cannot compensate by relying on other aerial assets and doctrines.
 
D

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Just like the Kh-59MK2 cruise missile (larger and about twice the weight), which had only been seen as a plastic airshow mock-up for 3 three years straight, until in 2018 suddenly we get video footage of a launch from the Su-57 rear bay. No preliminaries such as confirmation that the Russian air force will be buying it in the first place, no reports of manufacturing progress, no photos of external captive carry tests on other aircraft. All of which will have happened in the meantime of course, it just wasn't publicized.

It was vapour ware until one day, just like that, it wasn't anymore...

Oh, and strictly speaking we are not talking about the R-37M (which is already in operational service on the upgraded MiG-31BMs) but its follow-on (Izd. 810 IIRC).
Oh please, following that logic we can say that China already has plasma artillery, functional rail guns, an a completely fool proof AshBM system. Just because one thing is proven does not automatically validates another. And lets not even begin with how many things are missing from that supposed video shot. We saw a pink/red thing falling out of the bay, no indication of what kind of missile it actually is due to how grainy the video is, no proof of any motor ignition or a target being hit and no indication of where on earth the video was actually taken, and we are to take that as gospel ? Wow the burden of proof has fallen rock bottom nowadays.

This is silly. How am I supposed to show you a production model of the DIRCM system when not even the first production example of the aircraft itself has emerged? That said, a working instance is pretty easy: all of the Su-57 prototypes fitted with clear domes aft of and/or below the canopy have a functional system installed. It's not "slated for future development", it is planned to enter service as soon as the aircraft does - you must be thinking of the F-35 counterpart there (where DIRCM is only tentatively part of the upgrade road map).
Yeah sure couple of globles on a plan constitute a working system, no close up images of the domes rotating or test done with active seeker heads like how the US tests its counter measures and missiles. Man am I convince.
 
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D

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I wouldn't say that I'm a Russian military fan. I just acknowledge when they have superior equipment to the Chinese, even when acknowledging that there are areas where they are behind (electronics, surface warships) and that the Chinese will likely surpass them in most areas given greater funding and time. For instance, the Armata is better than the comparable ZTZ-99, given its remote-controlled turret. Another Russian advantage would be this artillery piece, which exceeds that of the comparable Chinese system in terms of rate of fire.
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That said, the Russians are broke; the Armata is limited to very few units, and the 2S35 is likely to have similar issues with deployment.

TBH, on the land, the Russian Armed Forces are probably still superior to the PLA, given that the PLA's modernization has been more oriented towards deterring the Americans and taking Taiwan. The biggest developments we've seen are in naval and aircraft fields, while things like the ZTZ-99 and ZTZ-96 are fairly good for what's intended, but I think the Chinese consider their Russian border secure (i.e, no one wants a nuclear exchange), and that the Chinese don't want to aggravate Sino-Russian relations by posing a land military threat to a notoriously paranoid power.
Except here you are pushing for a claim that is totally unsubstantiated, with nothing more than mere assumptions and a dodgy article. I will not comment on the other systems you brought up in detail since I will be vering from the OT too much. But I will say this, any system however advanced must be made in significant numbers and is capable of being readily serviced and replace as the battle demands for it to have any lasting effect. The Armata may very well be the next standard of a MBT but Russia will still have to put more effort into it to be standardize and produced.
 

Tirdent

Junior Member
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And somehow the Su-57 will magically waltz into IRST range of the F-22/35, the latter also having IRST with better if not greater range then the Su-57 to utilize is missiles.

Huh? The F-22 doesn't have IRST at all, let alone with greater range than the Su-57 (and if it did, how would you know it outranged the Su-57 IRST, considering the performance of the latter is not public?). As for the F-35, EOTS is primarily an A/G sensor based on Sniper XR pod hardware which operates in the MWIR band - the IRST function is merely an adjunct and unlikely to achieve range competitive with a dedicated A/A-system using LWIR.

Oh please, following that logic we can say that China already has plasma artillery, functional rail guns, an a completely fool proof AshBM system. Just because one thing is proven does not automatically validates another.

This is risible. There is proof that a missile which is longer, wider, taller and heavier can be launched from the Su-57 bays, but extrapolating from that to the R-37M successor is the equivalent of assuming operational plasma artillery? Quite apart from the manufacturer stating point blank that the AAM is designed for launch from internal weapons bays (the Su-57 is not specifically mentioned, but I think we can safely infer that they don't mean the Tu-160).

And lets not even begin with how many things are missing from that supposed video shot. We saw a pink/red thing falling out of the bay, no indication of what kind of missile it actually is due to how grainy the video is,

You clearly did not watch the entire video then. The missile is shown later on with tail fins and wings extended, leaving no doubt about what type it is (unless you're predisposed to reject facts which contradict your pet ideas, I guess).

no proof of any motor ignition

It's powered by a turbofan engine, why would motor ignition be obvious on a low-res video? Or were you expecting the Russians to give you a print-out of their telemetry stream or something? Please.

or a target being hit and no indication of where on earth the video was actually taken, and we are to take that as gospel ?

What on earth do target impact or the location of the video have to do with the question of whether a missile of a given size can be safely launched from the Su-57 bay or not?! It may not have been a full mission test with a live warhead and we don't know where the footage was taken - so the hell what! It's irrelevant to the topic.

Wow the burden of proof has fallen rock bottom nowadays.

You sure it's not your grasp of common sense instead?

Yeah sure couple of globles on a plan constitute a working system, no close up images of the domes rotating or test done with active seeker heads like how the US tests its counter measures and missiles. Man am I convince.

This tactic of demanding absurd levels of proof is a clear sign that you're not actually interested in the truth, so I'm inclined to drop it here.

Privately I was agreeing with most of your argument against Inst, but you've not been doing your credibility any favours here.
 
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Huh? The F-22 doesn't have IRST at all, let alone with greater range than the Su-57 (and if it did, how would you know it outranged the Su-57 IRST, considering the performance of the latter is not public?). As for the F-35, EOTS is primarily an A/G sensor based on Sniper XR pod hardware which operates in the MWIR band - the IRST function is merely an adjunct and unlikely to achieve range competitive with a dedicated A/A-system using LWIR.
I was referring to the latter which is the F-35 and system which is DAS, not the EOTS. The DAS function and set up is rather similar to the one found on the Su-57. While it may be possible that a purely dedicated DIRCM system might be more effective, we cannot rule out how microelectronics had advanced over the years. The system found on the Su-57 is more based on legacy system found on existing Russian fighters.

This is risible. There is proof that a missile which is longer, wider, taller and heavier can be launched from the Su-57 bays, but extrapolating from that to the R-37M successor is the equivalent of assuming operational plasma artillery? Quite apart from the manufacturer stating point blank that the missile is designed for launch from internal weapons bays (the Su-57 is not specifically mentioned, but I think we can safely infer that they don't mean the Tu-160).
What I am extrapolating here is how people seem to think that the existence of one system automatically means the complete functioning and existance of another. That is all nothing more and thing less, just because the Su-57 can accommodate such a weapon does not mean that the so called R-37M successor is in existence.

You clearly did not watch the entire video then. The missile is shown later on with tail fins and wings extended, leaving no doubt about what type it is (unless you're predisposed to reject facts which contradict your pet ideas, I guess).
And yet there are countless other missiles that also uses fold fin configurations, and even if we are to accept this as true. It does not automatically mean that the R-37M success is poised for service until we see solid proof.

It's powered by a turbofan engine, why would motor ignition be obvious on a low-res video? Or were you expecting the Russians to give you a print-out of their telemetry stream or something? Please.
Give how particular the Russians are in show casing their weapons, including higher profiled ones like the Khinzal and the Kalibr, then I am not wrong to see point out the inconsistancy of the so called Kh-59 launch. The Khinzal footage might as well be a movie reel for it's quality.

What on earth do target impact or the location of the video have to do with the question of whether a missile of a given size can be safely launched from the Su-57 bay or not?! It may not have been a full mission test with a live warhead and we don't know where the footage was taken - so the hell what! It's irrelevant to the topic.
It is because it more or less dictates the current progress of the claimed system, Russia claim that it was tested in Syria. Then against what ? Was it merely a test dummy or something else ? This is one case where Russian secrecy is not quite helping them.

You sure it's not your grasp of common sense instead?
Seen better throwbacks at a 10 year old party kid, try harder.
This tactic of demanding absurd levels of proof is a clear sign that you're not actually interested in the truth, so I'm inclined to drop it here.
So asking for credible proof = not interested in proof ? And that we are to accept mere gospel and heresay as truth ? Wow that is some logic. So the tried and true fall back against anyone pointing out the loopholes and flaws in the issue is to resort to ad homenim arguments, great to know.
And Russia has quite a background in making tall claims only to back track on them afterwards, so I see no reason not to treat anything they put out with anything less then a bucket of salt. Like how they say that the Su-57 will be in production in 2016 only to back track later, or how the Shtorm carrier kicked up a hypestorm only to fade in to obscurity afterwards. Or how the Lider Class Cruisers get backtracked all the way to 2023 from 2018 or 2019.
Privately I was agreeing with most of your argument against Inst, but you've not been doing your credibility any favours here.
Well thank god I am not basing my arguments based on the preference and mind set of others. It is funny to think that I have to bend my opinions to suit others and that likes = credibility.
 
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Tirdent

Junior Member
Registered Member
I was referring to the latter which is the F-35 and system which is DAS, not the EOTS. The DAS function and set up is rather similar to the one found on the Su-57. While it may be possible that a purely dedicated DIRCM system might be more effective, we cannot rule out how microelectronics had advanced over the years. The system found on the Su-57 is more based on legacy system found on existing Russian fighters.

No, DAS (and its Su-57 equivalent) are glorified MAWS, short-range wide-angle sensors for near-field situational awareness. IRST is a narrow-FoV long-range sensor, and on the F-35 this function is part of the EOTS system under the nose. With all due respect, before passing judgements like "more based on legacy system" maybe you should do your homework and research these things.

What I am extrapolating here is how people seem to think that the existence of one system automatically means the complete functioning and existance of another.

The key difference is that one case is an example of conservative extrapolation while the other is a ludicrous leap of logic. There simply is not the equivalence that you are insinuating.

And yet there are countless other missiles that also uses fold fin configurations, and even if we are to accept this as true.

The number of such configurations in the Russian arsenal is quite finite and none other than the Kh-59MK2 combine high-aspect ratio wings with x-arrangement tail controls. Seriously, when in a hole, stop digging further.

Give how particular the Russians are in show casing their weapons, including higher profiled ones like the Khinzal and the Kalibr, then I am not wrong to see point out the inconsistancy of the so called Kh-59 launch. The Khinzal footage might as well be a movie reel for it's quality.

Trouble is that it's largely a myth. They will aggressively push some weapons and scrupulously hide others - if there is any consistent characteristic in their approach to PR it would be a lack of consistency. Remember the high-acceleration ABM interceptor which was discussed a few pages back? The basic missile design dates to the 1980s and entered service in the 1990s, yet the first detailed photos became available 2 months ago - 30+ years later. And then only because one apparently ended up in a warehouse in Ukraine who went on to put it into a museum last year, presumably to needle the Russians.

D8SIsU6XkAINDtH.jpg

It is because it more or less dictates the current progress of the claimed system, Russia claim that it was tested in Syria. Then against what ? Was it merely a test dummy or something else ? This is one case where Russian secrecy is not quite helping them.

Overall progress of Kh-59MK2 development (beyond perhaps noting that it is WAY further along than anyone could have expected based on the above "conventional wisdom") is not what we are talking about, however. My point is strictly about what it means in terms of the payload size which can demonstrably fit in the Su-57 bays. Stop moving the goal posts.

So asking for credible proof = not interested in proof ? And that we are to accept mere gospel and heresay as truth ? Wow that is some logic.

The thing is, you have in fact been given proof that is as credible as it is ever going to get with such military matters. If you think that's still not good enough you are of course free to disagree, but you can't blame more reasonable people for starting to suspect lack of interest, or an agenda.

Well thank god I am not basing my arguments based on the preference and mind set of others. It is funny to think that I have to bend my opinions to suit others and that likes = credibility.

There's obviously no obligation to adapt your opinions to suit others, to maintain credibility it would be an idea to make them suit the facts, however.
 
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