Russian Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

Inst

Captain
Again this whole premise is based on premise that current radar tech stays at level they are at now which is a very generous assumption. Or that the F-22/35 radars has the exact kind of scanning power as you put forth. And they are ceding every tactical advantage to the Su-57 to begin with (no jamming of their own+ AWACs support).

Correct, but RAM can also be upgraded. GaN is probably going to result in an effective doubling of radar ranges against stealth aircraft without jamming interference. The point, though, isn't that the Su-57 can see the F-35s / F-22 before the latter see them, but by the time the F-35s / F-22 see the Su-57, they're both within visual / IRST range.


And that is money that Russia is never going to see in their coffers. If China was to apply metamaterials to the SU-57 it did have to be doing it at the production line itself already, which will mean that the whole production would have to take place in China as no way on earth is China going to be loose regarding its stealth tech. And the main claim for this contention is the extremely sketchy claim that a Su-57 without RAM is going to cose a mere 37 USD. I mean come on we are already seeing the Su-35S costing more than that (85 mil) and that is a fighter not build to stealth tech tolerance, no AESA radar and No RAM. Russia can make as many bombastic claims as they want but they cannot just simply wave a magic wand and hope the cost just vanish into thin air. In fact the very notion of it is borderline laughable.

The Su-35S exports to China include support packages. Likewise, the Chinese have been shown applying metamaterials in experiments to their existing stealth aircraft, i.e, the metamaterials can be applied after delivery.

This premise has been talked about before , the heavyweight fighter vs medium weight fighter ala which is the better dogfighter. And we have seen that application in real life before, the P-47 vs the Fw-190 and the BF-109. In the end the P-47 was able to utilize it's heavier weight and inertia to effectively energy fight the lighter fighters, the same principle can be applied to the J-20 as well. In fact with the prevalence of high off bore missiles, we are likely to see a completely different kind of dogfight in the modern skies. Nor is the J-20 that hideously expensive when compared to the F-35, with just only 20 or so copies in service, a 110 million price tag is to be expected compared to the F-35 that has more than four hundred copies in existence.
And again, to say that the Su-57 can exceed in this role as a so called "low cost fighter" really does applies if the Su-57 can achieve that kind of price tag and still remain an effective fighter: That, when we have every single evidence to the contrary .

The problem isn't as to whether the heavyweight or medium weight aircraft is the better dogfighter, the problem is which one is better for cost. Heavyweights typically cost more than mediumweights for the same technology level, i.e, the mass actually costs money.

This whole discussion has devolved into the notion that China has a reason to buy the Su-57 in bulk, when that reason is propped up by very unsubstantiated claims. While the Su-57 is a competent fighter design with a lot of potential. There are still things that it cannot do, which is to bend the law of physics and economy.

As I've said before, if the Russians can get the Su-57 at a cost befitting a "Silent Flanker", the Su-57's stealth being somewhere between LO and VLO doesn't matter. It's cheap. It can be produced like sardines and thrown at the opponent, with the J-20 functioning as the high.

Beyond that, as I've mentioned before, the Ruble has crashed and the RMB is likely to appreciate in the years to come (GDP deflator / PPP conversion is very high). The J-20 could eventually cost 220mn a pop if the RMB reached 1x PPP to the USD. When compared to cheap-ass Su-57s and a crashed Russian economy, the Su-57s are a good deal.

I'm curious, where exactly are you from? Are you Russian? You seem to mention Russian views on dogfighting / WVR uber alles a lot, but the attitude (J-20 is the be-all end-all of fighters) is more Chinese or Pakistani.
 
D

Deleted member 13312

Guest
Correct, but RAM can also be upgraded. GaN is probably going to result in an effective doubling of radar ranges against stealth aircraft without jamming interference. The point, though, isn't that the Su-57 can see the F-35s / F-22 before the latter see them, but by the time the F-35s / F-22 see the Su-57, they're both within visual / IRST range.
"facepalm", and where oh where on earth is it stated that a Su-57 without RAM (or with RAM seeing as you have a propensity to shift the goal posts here) and shittier avionics is going to be able to sneak up on a F-35/F-22 that is on full alert ? Oh wait there isn't, this is getting dogmatic.

The Su-35S exports to China include support packages. Likewise, the Chinese have been shown applying metamaterials in experiments to their existing stealth aircraft, i.e, the metamaterials can be applied after delivery.
Yeah right, and I suppose the Su-57 is going to be dumped right into China's lap without the appropriate support packages and logistics. A 5th gen fighter that has a demanding upkeep being tossed around like nothing ?Please, lets get real here.
And as much as you would like to believe, metamaterials are not just simply painted on a fighter like one might do any other paint. And it still does not explain way the magical fantasy cost reduction claimed.


The problem isn't as to whether the heavyweight or medium weight aircraft is the better dogfighter, the problem is which one is better for cost. Heavyweights typically cost more than mediumweights for the same technology level, i.e, the mass actually costs money.
Oh dear god........... refer to my above posts. There is currently no credible evidence whatsoever, non, zero, niche, nadda. That the Su-57 could be made as cheaply as what Russia claim and remain a relatively combat capable fighter. And let us revisit that word "typically", the F-35 current estimates cost 85-110 million USD per unit and that is with 400 plus units in existence already, the J-20 cost an estimated 110 million usd per unit and with only less then 30 units in existence, oh dear oh dear the numbers seem quite telling . So this proves, with finality, that a full production mode J-20 is NOT going to cost anymore than a F-35 or F-22

As I've said before, if the Russians can get the Su-57 at a cost befitting a "Silent Flanker", the Su-57's stealth being somewhere between LO and VLO doesn't matter. It's cheap. It can be produced like sardines and thrown at the opponent, with the J-20 functioning as the high.
If it can be produced like sardines ,it is going to get gobbled up like sardines. That is the fact of life, and please no "quantity as a quality of its own" BS here. Because as I have stated before, the Su-57 must at least have some capabilities for it to be worth a damn, and it is not going to get that if is going to be sold at that kind of pittance.

To be fair, if you can answer this question with finality I can let this issue rest : How on earth can a Su-57 that is going to be built to a tighter tolerance, equipped with better avionics and ECMs going to cost less then a Su-35S that is built to a lesser tolerance, poorer avionics and ECMs and no stealth shaping and most importantly, have more than a 100 units in service to drive the production costs down already ? That is the main problem that the article is conveniently ignoring.

Beyond that, as I've mentioned before, the Ruble has crashed and the RMB is likely to appreciate in the years to come (GDP deflator / PPP conversion is very high). The J-20 could eventually cost 220mn a pop if the RMB reached 1x PPP to the USD. When compared to cheap-ass Su-57s and a crashed Russian economy, the Su-57s are a good deal.
Ugh, again with this economical nonsense. Just because a currency depreciates in value means a country can sell something more cheaply and at higher a profit. If that be the case then Japan with the yen did be swimming in money already. I don't get it where people think that if a currency drops in value it is going to go swimmingly for everyone in that country in question but I can tell you now that there is such a thing as a global economy and inflation rates.

I'm curious, where exactly are you from? Are you Russian? You seem to mention Russian views on dogfighting / WVR uber alles a lot, but the attitude (J-20 is the be-all end-all of fighters) is more Chinese or Pakistani.
Yeap, was expecting the race card to be raised sooner or later. To answer the question, no I am not a Russian but it does not adduce or deduce anything from my posts. Second off, I have never claim that the J-20 is the end all be all fighter. What I am contending to is the extremely fanciful notion that the Su-57 can be sold at such a low price and still remain a viable fighter of its class.

If the J-20 can be consider "good enough" for WVR, then there will be no need to procure the Su-57 solely for the prospect of close range dogfighting, considering that the F-22 and F-35 possess roughly the same close fighting qualities, the gap can be compensated with better off bore missiles, a stronger engine (if the J-20 ever gets one) and better use of aerial tactics.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
D

Deleted member 13312

Guest
P.S: In fact more unsubstantiated reports claim that the flyaway cost for the J-20 had dropped to a mere 50-60 million per unit pittance average. I normally write such things off as ludicrous nonsense, but then again Military Watch Magazine is hardly the most reliable of sources to begin with.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

Inst

Captain
"facepalm", and where oh where on earth is it stated that a Su-57 without RAM (or with RAM seeing as you have a propensity to shift the goal posts here) and shittier avionics is going to be able to sneak up on a F-35/F-22 that is on full alert ? Oh wait there isn't, this is getting dogmatic.

I'm saying that it's without RAM and that as GaN becomes deployed, that the RAM will be installed or upgraded. The deal isn't whether it sneaks up to the F-35 or F-22, the deal is whether it can close to WVR and change the game to a dogfight. As I've mentioned before, jamming can tremendously decrease the detection range of stealth stealth aircraft (it's roughly every negative 10 dBsm results in 90% reduction in functional range). The other thing is that stealth technology, whether shaping or RAM, is a lot more effective vs Ku-band and above seekers on radar-guided missiles than vs low-band AEW&C radars or medium-band fighter radars. The result could be that missiles launched at the Su-57 could fail to achieve independent tracking except at short ranges.


Yeah right, and I suppose the Su-57 is going to be dumped right into China's lap without the appropriate support packages and logistics. A 5th gen fighter that has a demanding upkeep being tossed around like nothing ?Please, lets get real here.
And as much as you would like to believe, metamaterials are not just simply painted on a fighter like one might do any other paint. And it still does not explain way the magical fantasy cost reduction claimed.

Except that we have pictures of metamaterials being jammed onto J-10s. The retrofit isn't trivial, but neither is it impossible. As for support package costs, the Su-35 costs something like 35-50mn a piece. China paid $100mn a piece for the support package. A purchase of Su-57s is likely to be comparably expensive in terms of support package, but guess what? The J-20 also needs a support package.



Oh dear god........... refer to my above posts. There is currently no credible evidence whatsoever, non, zero, niche, nadda. That the Su-57 could be made as cheaply as what Russia claim and remain a relatively combat capable fighter. And let us revisit that word "typically", the F-35 current estimates cost 85-110 million USD per unit and that is with 400 plus units in existence already, the J-20 cost an estimated 110 million usd per unit and with only less then 30 units in existence, oh dear oh dear the numbers seem quite telling . So this proves, with finality, that a full production mode J-20 is NOT going to cost anymore than a F-35 or F-22

It's unclear as to whether the J-20 cost is stated for the full-rate production or the LRIP-equivalents. And as I've stated before, the RMB is very undervalued compared to the USD on a PPP basis; it may reflect the cheaper cost of labor in China, but sooner or later it'll appreciate; China is slowly becoming an export power. When that comes, expect 5:1 USd or 4:1 USD instead of the current ~7:1.


If it can be produced like sardines ,it is going to get gobbled up like sardines. That is the fact of life, and please no "quantity as a quality of its own" BS here. Because as I have stated before, the Su-57 must at least have some capabilities for it to be worth a damn, and it is not going to get that if is going to be sold at that kind of pittance.

To be fair, if you can answer this question with finality I can let this issue rest : How on earth can a Su-57 that is going to be built to a tighter tolerance, equipped with better avionics and ECMs going to cost less then a Su-35S that is built to a lesser tolerance, poorer avionics and ECMs and no stealth shaping and most importantly, have more than a 100 units in service to drive the production costs down already ? That is the main problem that the article is conveniently ignoring.

Desperation. The Su-35S are already being exported, and the cost cited for the China deal is including support costs.


Ugh, again with this economical nonsense. Just because a currency depreciates in value means a country can sell something more cheaply and at higher a profit. If that be the case then Japan with the yen did be swimming in money already. I don't get it where people think that if a currency drops in value it is going to go swimmingly for everyone in that country in question but I can tell you now that there is such a thing as a global economy and inflation rates.

Inflation is not a uniformly-applied figure, i.e, if the inflation figure is 3.5% it doesn't mean that my rice is all of a sudden going to be 3.5% more expensive. Indicators of inflation are based on a basket of goods purchased and some factors can be less expensive. To put it another way, the Russian GDP per capita in PPP (inflation adjusted) terms has been roughly constant since the Ukraine crisis. On the other hand, in nominal terms, the Russian GDP per capita has dropped about 25%, implying that exchange rate moves have been greater than inflation. In the long-run, inflation should push prices to effectively the same as before the exchange rate bomb, but that's in the long-run. In the short-run, the Su-57 is a bargain.


Yeap, was expecting the race card to be raised sooner or later. To answer the question, no I am not a Russian but it does not adduce or deduce anything from my posts. Second off, I have never claim that the J-20 is the end all be all fighter. What I am contending to is the extremely fanciful notion that the Su-57 can be sold at such a low price and still remain a viable fighter of its class.

If the J-20 can be consider "good enough" for WVR, then there will be no need to procure the Su-57 solely for the prospect of close range dogfighting, considering that the F-22 and F-35 possess roughly the same close fighting qualities, the gap can be compensated with better off bore missiles, a stronger engine (if the J-20 ever gets one) and better use of aerial tactics.

It's more the nationalist card. I've been reading about the Imperial Japanese Army, and the shocking thing about it is that the IJA was basically similar to cats. That is to say, to a mouse it's an eldritch monstrosity that hunts it mercilessly. To humans, it's a cute and adorable companion animal. The IJA, basically, was well-suited to beating up GMD forces or hitting second-tier colonial troops in the Far East and Southeast Asian region. When confronted with a serious and modern army, such as that of the Soviet Union or United States, well, it got smashed, not merely on a quantitative level, but also a qualitative level. For instance, the 6.5mm Arisaka during the Second Sino-Japanese War was considered underpowered, akin to early 5.8mm ammunition in Chinese service, and Japanese artillery was so bad that even GMD artillery imported by Germany could outrange and outshoot it.

Yet the IJA, along with modern Japanese nationalists, went on / go on endlessly about the superiority, bravery, and power of the Imperial Japanese Army. What they can't admit is when their own country is bad, and that their entire colonial adventure was a terrible idea because they were a semi-modernized country around the time of the Second Sino-Japanese War that ended up going to war with the Soviet Union and the United States, both of which had technological and industrial advantages, in the latter, to obscene levels.

In the Japanese case, part of the problem was that they were in a weak and losing position, and had to take risks to be strategically viable. They had to believe in their own strengths, instead of making sincere and effective self-criticisms (one of the things Chinese nationalists get right is that they point out that the PLA tends to emphasize its weakness and flaws). In the Chinese case, the Chinese aren't in a losing position. While economic growth has slowed down, technological growth is speeding up, and there's no reason to hew to nationalist positions because the alternative is to admit defeat.

The PLA can make a rational decision as to whether the Su-57 meets Chinese needs, mainly based on the price. Buying the Su-57 will, of course, get hewing and hemming from Western observers, but what's the point of being so sensitive to foreign criticism?
 

Inst

Captain
P.S: In fact more unsubstantiated reports claim that the flyaway cost for the J-20 had dropped to a mere 50-60 million per unit pittance average. I normally write such things off as ludicrous nonsense, but then again Military Watch Magazine is hardly the most reliable of sources to begin with.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I'm soucing a CCTV claim that the J-20 is flyaway 110mn. You're sourcing SCMP, which is claimed by nationalists on this forum as being so bad and uninformed that it can be ignored altogether.

I'll also point out that:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


The J-10A fighter is estimated to cost about 30 million USD a pop in 2010. The F-16, in 1998 was purported to cost about 18,800,000 USD maximum, which, adjusted for inflation, comes out to about 25 million USD. So assuming that the Chinese have cost savings in their military aviation is incorrect.
 
D

Deleted member 13312

Guest
I'm soucing a CCTV claim that the J-20 is flyaway 110mn. You're sourcing SCMP, which is claimed by nationalists on this forum as being so bad and uninformed that it can be ignored altogether.
Yeah , and you are sourcing Military Watch Magainze which is ham over fist known for shody journalism so I don't why you have the higher ground here.

If you want to use bullcrap articles to source up your claim, then guess what the the other side gets to use it too.
 
D

Deleted member 13312

Guest
=
I'll also point out that:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


The J-10A fighter is estimated to cost about 30 million USD a pop in 2010. The F-16, in 1998 was purported to cost about 18,800,000 USD maximum, which, adjusted for inflation, comes out to about 25 million USD. So assuming that the Chinese have cost savings in their military aviation is incorrect.
Compare the numbers built and the answer is pretty clear already.
 

Inst

Captain
Yeah , and you are sourcing Military Watch Magainze which is ham over fist known for shody journalism so I don't why you have the higher ground here.

If you want to use bullcrap articles to source up your claim, then guess what the the other side gets to use it too.

I think you'd hew to your view, just as much as I'd hew to mine. Think of the Su-35 purchase by the Chinese, wherein Chinese military observers on this forum repeatedly denounced and denied it until the PLAAF finally said "let's do it" and the purchase was made. Then the Su-35 purchase got analyzed to defend the "honor" of the Chinese military aviation industry, when observers, including on this forum, admitted that the Su-35 was superior to the proposed J-11D in every way except the avionics.

Likewise, in the event that the PLAAF DOES purchase the Su-57, the exact same arguments I've made for why it's a good idea (price, WVR dogfighting specialization, a look at Russian DIRCM systems, diversifying combat philosophies that are complementary) will get trotted out to defend the J-20's "honor". As said before, let's wait and see what happens in the next few months, whether the Russians DO sign an ultra-cheap deal for the Su-57 that's probably at an operating loss.

Discourse is based on mutual respect. I think we have little here, so it's probably best for us to end this because I can foresee your arguments (Su-57 isn't stealthy, Russians can't get it cheap enough, J-20 is going to cost the same as a 羊肉串, etc etc etc) and would prefer not to engage them. The core disagreement is whether China is the best and #1 or whether China is still a developing country that has yet to catch up to the United States in the field of military technology, despite interesting developments.
 
D

Deleted member 13312

Guest
I think you'd hew to your view, just as much as I'd hew to mine. Think of the Su-35 purchase by the Chinese, wherein Chinese military observers on this forum repeatedly denounced and denied it until the PLAAF finally said "let's do it" and the purchase was made. Then the Su-35 purchase got analyzed to defend the "honor" of the Chinese military aviation industry, when observers, including on this forum, admitted that the Su-35 was superior to the proposed J-11D in every way except the avionics.

Likewise, in the event that the PLAAF DOES purchase the Su-57, the exact same arguments I've made for why it's a good idea (price, WVR dogfighting specialization, a look at Russian DIRCM systems, diversifying combat philosophies that are complementary) will get trotted out to defend the J-20's "honor". As said before, let's wait and see what happens in the next few months, whether the Russians DO sign an ultra-cheap deal for the Su-57 that's probably at an operating loss.

Discourse is based on mutual respect. I think we have little here, so it's probably best for us to end this because I can foresee your arguments (Su-57 isn't stealthy, Russians can't get it cheap enough, J-20 is going to cost the same as a 羊肉串, etc etc etc) and would prefer not to engage them. The core disagreement is whether China is the best and #1 or whether China is still a developing country that has yet to catch up to the United States in the field of military technology, despite interesting developments.
Except that your argument is based on total baloney, unsubstantiated claims and terribly sourced articles. I see no reason why such baseless claims deserve the level of respect you demand.
This is not the first time I have to deal with Russian military fans who still maintain the fanciful hard on that Russia still have a magical lead in terms of military progression vis a vis China despite languishing for darn near 2 decades.
 
Top