Russian Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

gelgoog said:

They have been working on a prototype MiG-31 with fly-by-wire. So I wouldn't be surprised if MiG made yet another upgrade to the existing airframes. The MiG-31BM upgrade package is a decade old at this point and was based on components from the MiG-29SMT. They could be making another upgrade package which would add systems developed for the MiG-35 to the MiG-31.

PAK DP it is supposed to use an Al-51 engine variant. Given that the original AL-51 hasn't entered serial production yet I doubt the engine will be available soon. The PAK DP engine is supposed to be an Al-51 engine core with a modified afterburner and maybe also modified low pressure section.

The PAK DP aircraft will likely be Mach 3 capable. And should be able to fire hypersonic cruise missiles. Which could be an air launched variant of the Zircon.

Click to expand...

How many Mig-31 airframes that are still good for further upgrades ??? They are starting to get old, last batch ended in 1994, it's 30 years ago. Sure that these airframes don't take G in dogfighting training like others but they surely beginning to have less place to drill holes for new equipments.

Russian ships will be equipped with additional firepower to protect against naval drones. The Russian Defense Minister, during a working trip, visited the command post of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. After hearing reports from the fleet command and staff officers, the minister set the task of conducting constant training with personnel both during the day and at night to repel threats associated with UAVs and sea drones. The Head of the Ministry of Defense also set the task of placing additional fire weapons and large-caliber machine gun rifle systems on the ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, as well as increasing their survivability. What exactly will be posted and in what time frame is not reported. It is worth noting that it is still not clear why the ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, in connection with the emerging threats from sea drones, were not previously equipped with additional means of protection.

The Collapse of Russian Arms Exports - Competitors, Ukraine & The Future of Russian Exports

For decades, the USSR and then the Russian Federation competed with the US to dominate the global arms market. In 2023, according to SIPRI, Russia didn't even make the top five list of exporters.

In this episode, I look at the evolution of Russian arms exports in 2022 and 2023, examine the drivers, and look at some of the nations (like France) that have taken market share as Russia drops.

Deino said:

Actually I don‘t expect this type to reach hardware status anytime.

Click to expand...

Would change anytime to soon but it's the meaning of my ''...''

Sinnavuuty said:

The Collapse of Russian Arms Exports - Competitors, Ukraine & The Future of Russian Exports

For decades, the USSR and then the Russian Federation competed with the US to dominate the global arms market. In 2023, according to SIPRI, Russia didn't even make the top five list of exporters.

In this episode, I look at the evolution of Russian arms exports in 2022 and 2023, examine the drivers, and look at some of the nations (like France) that have taken market share as Russia drops.

Click to expand...

Lots of assumptions, when the thick of it is lack of excedent capability to fulfil export order of big ticket items and those who could afford big ticket items probably can't afford the political and economical sanctions imposed by the west should they buy Russian weapons.

A bigger sign of an actual effect, particularly regarding reputation, would be if anyone who got big ticket items before the war would be going out of its way to get rid of them; namely Turkey and India dumping its S400, Egypt dumping its Mig-29M2(I'd include the Su-35 even if they couldn't take delivery of them to avoid sanctions, but thats an assumption on my part) and so on.

And I mean modern equipment, not dumping outdated, obsolete stuff on Ukraine.

Edit:

A missing caveat is that whatever the Russia ends up designing and exporting in the future, it will benefit of all the experience of having been directly involved in a near-peer conflict, something the competition will lack to the same extent(unless NATO decided to cut the middle man), which in the analisis if compounded by the assumption that somehow Russia isn't innovating when it seems quite the opposite given how they have finally embraced drone warfare, guided munitions and so on. Then there is the extra industrial capacity that, again, western competitors will be unable to match in the short and medium term, and will only get worse as the west kepts antagonizing their sources of raw material.

And one final thing is that it completely assumes the geopolitical arrangement of the world will stay exactly the same after the war concludes.

Russian arms exports had been dropping since the US passed CAATSA. The Russian weapons industry was mostly fulfilling existing orders and even some of those got cancelled. The US basically threatens the countries which purchase Russian weapons with interference with their financial system. This way Russia lost sales to Egypt and Indonesia. If the BRICS establish alternative payment mechanisms and the USD loses some of its relevance then a lot of the bite behind CAATSA will basically vanish.

Russia is also right now earning about as much revenue on exports with food as they used to with weapons. Before 2014 they used to be a net food importer. So there is less of an economic impact due to lost weapons sales than what the video purports. Purchases are also often cyclical. India won't likely be buying a lot more combat fighters similar to the ones they already have and they will want more technology transfer. India's move to balance their weapons imports is also nothing new. They operated the Mirage 2000 and SEPECAT Jaguar at the same time as Soviet aircraft. China can produce its own weapons and doesn't need imports as much as it used to.

In a way the US sanctions on Russia after the SMO actually untied Russia's hands to sell to countries they could never sell weapons to before. Namely Iran and North Korea. Iran might have a lousy economy, but they sure have a lot of oil. And that is fungible. It is about as good as money really. North Korea can pay with labor. Of which Russia has a shortage. Russia might also sell more weapons to other countries it avoided selling to, so they wouldn't annoy the Americans. Like Cuba. As the US continues sanctioning ever more countries, Russia will have more countries to sell weapons to.

The video makes several bogus assumptions. Like that the production increases in weapons production are all due to just an increase in the amount of work hours and shifts. That is hogwash. Almaz-Antey built a new factory in record time which basically doubled production of air defense missiles. The Russians also built the factory for the Geran-2. They built multiple factories to make the Lancet. Older factories which used to be mostly empty and not in full use have had modern machine tools installed. One example of this is the Omsk factory where the T-80BVM is upgraded and where they plan to restart T-80 production. The Russians also started the mass production of several new weapon systems and platforms either in the middle of the conflict or just before it started. The Geran-2 loitering ammunition, the Lancet drone, the T-90M tank (it was barely produced before the conflict started), the Su-57 (which has also seen its production ramp up).

The conflict also took a lot of the Russian MIC out of the stupor it was sometimes in. The government can shake down companies more, incompetent CEOs get sacked more quickly, and workers have more incentive to work given the siege situation the country is in and the increased salaries they are getting paid.

After the conflict ends the industry will need to continue replacing worn out and lost equipment for a couple of years before the production rate will go back down again. So it's not like it will go from infinity to zero. A lot of countries will also be wanting weapon systems which proved themselves in the conflict.

There might be an effect similar to the boost in weapons sales the Soviet Union had after WW2 ended. A lot of new weapons systems were developed during the war but were only put into production after the war ended in order not to disturb existing production at a time of attrition. The older systems produced during the war were then exported all over the world at really bargain prices. At the same time factories were geared up to mass produce the new systems. So unlike what the video is saying I think the development of the new systems will continue. The Soviet Union was in a way more dismal position during WW2 and they still managed to develop whole new complex weapon systems in the middle of the war.

The video also conflates some things. He claims the Russian defense sector has low productivity. This is typical Western propaganda. The Russian MIC has a lot of slack capacity precisely so it can quickly ramp up wartime production. This has a cost in both people and fixed assets which need to be maintained. What he sees as inefficiency and lack of productivity is actually resources being knowingly expended to maintain this surge capacity in case it is necessary. Which is why after the SMO started and production was ramped up, all of a sudden, the Russian MIC ended up being quite productive. Which isn't reflected in the old stats when production was at half gas.

gelgoog said:

What he sees as inefficiency and lack of productivity is actually resources being knowingly expended to maintain this surge capacity in case it is necessary.

Click to expand...

That bit shows some people are still framing this through the lens of neoliberal lens of "efficiency" and that they haven't learned a thing. Prioritizing "efficiency" to boost shareholde value is what has left the West with no capability to replenish any losses in a useful timeframe.

It might also show that Russia maybe never fully trusted the West since it seems they didn't fully commit to sacrificing productive capacity to the neoliberal god of Efficiency.

sheogorath said:

That bit shows some people are still framing this through the lens of neoliberal lens of "efficiency" and that they haven't learned a thing. Prioritizing "efficiency" to boost shareholde value is what has left the West with no capability to replenish any losses in a useful timeframe.

It might also show that Russia maybe never fully trusted the West since it seems they didn't fully commit to sacrificing productive capacity to the neoliberal god of Efficiency.

Click to expand...

More like some good soviet habit persisted despite their best effort to self sabotage.

In 2024, the Su-57 will become the most produced Russian fighter

The Su-57 is the most inexpensive fifth-generation aircraft, its cost is approximately two times lower than that of the American F-35, which makes it possible to expand its production.

Representatives of the Russian military-industrial complex reported that in 2024, twice as many Su-57 fighters will be produced as in the previous year. “We have fulfilled the state defense order. As for new aircraft, the order for Su-57 has almost doubled.”

In 2023, UAC delivered 12 Su-57 aircraft, while in 2022 there were only six, and deliveries in 2024 will exceed 20 aircraft. This increase in production will make the Su-57 the most produced fighter in Russia, with the Su-34M in second place.

Annual deliveries of the Su-34 are expected to be just under 20 aircraft, although no exports are expected, although the class's production cost is estimated to be half that of the Su-57.

There are currently 76 Su-57 fighters on order, due for delivery by 2028. Expanding production will allow Russia not only to achieve this goal, but also to potentially begin exporting, as Algeria has already placed orders for 12-14 aircraft, according to multiple sources.

A key factor driving large-scale procurement is that the Su-57's lifetime cost is comparable to the Su-27, Su-30 and Su-35 it was designed to replace, allowing it to be used in place of these fourth-tier fighters. generations at a cost of one to one. This is in contrast to the American fifth-generation fighters F-35 and F-22, which, due to significant excess operating costs and very high maintenance requirements, are not available for purchase for the purpose of similar replacement of their predecessors.

A key way in which Su-57 manufacturers achieved this was through the use of innovative solutions such as radar-absorbing fiberglass, which avoids the need for special radar-absorbing coatings, as is done on American fighters.

Another factor is the use of the AL-51 engine (formerly known as the Saturn 30), which has lower maintenance requirements and operating costs than the previous AL-31 and AL-41 that powered the Su-27/30 and Sukhoi Su-27/30. -35 respectively.

The Russian electronic warfare system “Peroed”, designed to combat drones, was upgraded to the “Peroed-M” version and put into mass production. Reportedly, the complex has proven itself well in tests at Russian military institutes and in real conditions. Today, this is the most effective complex for detecting and suppressing FPV drones. The group of Moscow companies "SOZ" modified the ultra-sensitive Burdock radars and combined them with portable mobile electronic warfare units; this became the basis of the Peroed-M electronic warfare complex. The complex operates at frequencies from 900 MHz to 5.8 GHz, including non-standard frequencies that are now being used for FPV drones. The complex uses a narrow scanning beam, which reduces the risk of detection. The complex consists, characteristics on the screen, of a phased wearable radar "Repeynik" or an object-based radar "Repeynik-K", an automatic turret "SOZ REB" and an automatic turret "Peroed-M", used to suppress drones. For safety, the radar, electronic warfare units and the operator’s work area are separated from each other by hundreds of meters, which excludes direct detection of operators. The complex is capable of detecting up to 256 drones, depending on their size, at a range of up to 15 km and an altitude of up to 5 km and suppressing them at a distance of up to 2500 meters. Compact dimensions and modular division into two blocks of 15 and 10.5 kg provide the ability to attach to special equipment and ensure the secrecy of movement of combat crews. The complex deploys in 5 minutes and can operate for up to 8 hours, controlled by one person.