If the Russians expected to encounter significant difficulty in Ukraine, and wanted to better prepare, what changes do you think they would have made to their ground equipment [other than communications, obviously]?
Like you said communications. Lack of digital encrypted radios, lack of training on how to operate them, lack of proper high bandwidth data transmission methods over long distances, etc. To a large degree the lagging capabilities that Russia has in space based assets also play a role. Like lack of enough modern recon, global positioning, and data transmission satellite assets.
Do you think that they would have started doing after 2014 what they are now doing in terms of ground vehicle modernization, such as fielding the Manul? Is it possible that long-term projects such as Armata and Kurganets/Bumerang would have been downplayed in favour of iterations of existing types? Their artillery modernization certainly took its time.
They spent a huge amount of time penny pinching. There were and have always been programs to update existing vehicle types but they seldom get funded or get funded in nerfed versions. One example is the T-72B2 Rogatka. They could have just started using that but instead they made several different somewhat cheaper T-72 upgrades. Another thing they lack is commander's panoramic sight in the T-72B and older T-90A tanks. The T-90M has it. And it's not like you can't put something like on a T-72 when the White Eagle export tank upgrade has it.
As for the Manul, I suppose it looks like an interesting upgrade, but they lack even enough basic BMP-3 or BMD-4M vehicles as it is. There are way too many people on BMP-2, BMP-1, or BMD-1/2 vehicles which worst of all have been poorly upgraded.
They need a better upgrade for the BMP-1 and BMP-2 vehicles since clearly they can't produce the BMP-3 quickly enough.
They used to have two factories which made IFVs, one in Volgograd, and another in Kurgan. The one in Volgograd is basically dead. I think they need another factory for IFVs. Production is clearly insufficient.
I also think they need more Terminator heavy AFVs. They clearly seem to have an outside effect on the field when they get used despite only being available in pathetic numbers. This would help with attacking hardened defensive positions.
The lack of enough modern artillery is of course a huge issue. They didn't fund it for a huge amount of time. And like with other hardware you had the penny pinching. The Msta-SM2 was supposed to have an L/60 long barrel for example but it doesn't to save cost. I guess one advantage of the shorter barrels is that barrel replacement is a lot cheaper even if the range suffers because of it.
Anyway it could have been worse I guess. The Russians have been improving their army since the 08.08.08 conflict. This sped up a lot since 2014. And they did do some things right.
There was a huge growth in the size of the active duty army, both before and after 02.02.22, and getting equipment for all those people was probably pretty hard.