Russian efforts to sell the Su-57/PAK FA to China

TerraN_EmpirE · Apr 15, 2019

araberuni said:
India rejected for many reasons

Yes many. The biggest isn't on your little list.

araberuni said:
1. Lobbying by Americans

the least first. India isn't getting F35. They are not part of any US partnership for fighters at present the U.S. can apply pressure but so could France or England.

araberuni said:
2. Monetary committment

close oh so close.

araberuni said:
3 Russian refusal to share core technology

Bingo

But #2 and #3 have a combination that is the real #1 here. India wasn't paying for SU57. They were paying for FGFA. Russia was taking the Indian money and building Pakfa if India wasn't getting what it paid for why keep paying the bills?
Not sharing the core technology broke the whole point of the agreement. Basically the Indians realized they were being strung along.

araberuni said:
China doesn't have any such problems. If China figures out everything then why did China bought Su-35?

because they felt it offered something not in their own Flanker clones.

However the story couldn't get more reversed with J20 vs SU57. Sure FC31 is lacking but that's because it's no where near ready, it's still a demo bird series.
J20 may be underpowered but it's using the same engines as the Su57 is right now. The super engines aren't ready for either bird. Once they are they likely could be added to both.
So then it comes to the other characteristics of the fighters LO and sensors.
Thus far J20 has the better sensor Intigration.
So far seems the better LO. Engines can be changed later but sensors are the root of fifth gens take more time and demand more careful thought.
Su57 doesn't seem to have those.

Then comes defences and So far neither is telling a lot. The Russians have a very visible DIRCM system but that doesn't mean it doesn't have or will not as such a system can be integrated into the distributed sensor windows. So for the moment it's an unknown. Both are supposed to have AESA Radar types that should be able to serve as jammers.

The only other point that seems to favor Su57 is the cannon and center line weapons bays. But if it lacks an integrated targeting designation system than a lot of the utility is lost.
The larger payload can also be partially made up for by the eventual addition of a light weight 23mm cannon and a family of small diameter air to ground and smaller missiles possibly hit to kill types air to air missiles.

The utility for the PRC of buying based on price point is far more dubious. The Russians keep quoting an Objective price equal to SU35 but never giving an actual price yet only building less than a bakers dozen. Which doesn't do a lot on lending credence to the price.

ougoah · Apr 15, 2019

Can we all just stop pretending Russian engines are as good as US or even European ones? There's hardly anything worth copying these days. FFS modern Chinese engines are providing equal thrust and equal service life to Russian ones already. The only possible reason J-10s (and naval J-15s) still use Russian units is because of WS-10's slightly higher random shut down rate (to overcome they just restart in air one occasion out of what was it, 1000 hours?) and there being no higher corrosion resistant version for naval fighters. Oh and did I mention the fact that WS-10 manufacturer cannot even keep up with production orders just to equip Sino-flankers alone? That factor is down to less developed manufacturing compared to the US.

What could have been learned about design was achieved back in the 90s. Single crystal blade manufacturing is NOT behind Russian industry at all. In fact manufacturing technologies have likely exceeded Russian industry already. It's Chinese efforts that have solved technical problems for Rolls Royce where everyone else failed or didn't bother trying. Not Russian ones.

TVC the Russians are thoroughly ahead on but their approach was apparently unnecessarily complex and expensive? So the J-10 TVC demonstrator used a different cheaper set-up? So maybe there's something to learn there, which factors into Su-35 purchase. Hardly likely for Izd. 30 to use a completely new TVC system to Su-35. The software is where all the meat is and that cannot be copied easily. Even commercial ones are protected, I'd imagine military would be harder to crack. The other problem is manufacturing, rather "mass" production while controlling cost and time. You cannot copy this like you cannot uncook an egg. You don't learn how to build an engine from blueprints and even the actual sample. This is why Russians were NOT at all worried about China copying their engine. It is an impossible task. Maybe they can serve as design inspiration but even then it still demands a perfect understanding of all the concepts involved and creating all your own tooling and processes to make your copied design a reality. Why do you think India failed to produce even a direct copy of combinations of French and American engines? The Kaveri project is actually over and has been rebranded over and over and over again with the goal posts shifted so many times, they may as well start on another high thrust clean sheet design while getting rid of DRDO. The AL-41 is no F119 and the IZD 30 is unlikely to be an F135.

J-20 with two Al-31 or WS-10 still has >1 T:W. It can only be considered "underpowered" in comparison to F-22. These are twin engined air superiority fighters. They simply cannot be called underpowered in a world where single engined fighters exist at more than half the mass of these twin engined fighters (engine mass included). J-20 even in current state is still more overpowered than everything else in PLAAF arsenal except for perhaps the Su-35. But if we take the claimed weight reduction and extra lift in body and less drag into account, then the J-20 with two Al-31s even will still likely have better performance than Su-35. If pilot testimony is to be trusted, J-20 could supercruise using these "underpowered" engines already. I recall that being the conclusion from some interviews. Fuel and weapons load obviously unspecified.

Biscuits · Apr 15, 2019

We have a J-20s pilot’s word that it flies better than any older generation plane. That would presumably include the Su-35s and J-10Cs, which are very maneuverable.

Idk if Su-57 can achieve that without it’s new engines, given that the J-20 is uniquely designed for high flight characteristics.

In terms of stealth, it does not look very promising either.

But all that depends on cost. If one can get 2 or 3 for 1 J-20, does it really have to match the J-20 in any way to be worthwhile? It will still surpass 4.5gen.

I think that if the offer is good, China will buy it. Otherwise not. Russia claims it can push price down to 50 million $/airframe. But they also haven’t made many of them, so is that price point a target or something that has been achieved?

ougoah · Apr 15, 2019

There is no way each Su-57 can be exported at $50M USD even if that doesn't include parts, training, and maintenance etc. Even Gripen and F-16 single engined budget minded fighters cost more than that have supposedly have inferior equipment to premier frontline 5th gen fighters like Su-57 is meant to be. If it can be done at $50M there must be a lot of equipment missing from it, making it a worthless investment. The frame and engines alone are probably going to cost $50M, if we include avionics, export package, and profit margin, a single Su-57 exported should easily total in excess of $100M USD. The Su-35s sold to China have higher individual pro-rata cost.

gelgoog · Apr 15, 2019

India wanted to get all the Su-57 technology for themselves while just paying the price of the acquisition of the fighters. Obviously the Russians weren't interested in that.
For all the claims that India was financing the PAK-FA the truth is they didn't contribute any money to it. What they were supposed to fund was a two-seater derivative of it. The FGFA. But even that never got funded. For all the claims the Russians couldn't finance PAK-FA development by themselves the truth is they have been able to do so.
The Russian economy is also now in a much better state than it was two years ago. The oil price has risen slightly. They have decreased their imports and increased self-reliance. So any concept they can't fund the PAK-FA R&D by themselves is, I think, quite delusional. Of course like any fighter the more units that get produced the higher the economy of scale in manufacturing will be. That and gaining weapons export revenues are the reason for making it available for sale. Even much wealthier countries like the USA export their aircraft.

With regards to a Chinese purchase I doubt it would happen in less than two years. Only once Izdeleye 30 and initial production becomes available do I think real exports would happen. Only country which I think could buy it before would be someone like Saudi Arabia with lots of money to blow and an actual war happening. But the Houtis have barely any anti-aircraft capabilities so any advantages that stealth would have would be minimal to zero.

For this and other reasons I think the first Su-57 client will likely be either Vietnam or Algeria and only in two years time or more. But definitively before 2025.

Air Force Brat · Apr 15, 2019

gelgoog said:
India wanted to get all the Su-57 technology for themselves while just paying the price of the acquisition of the fighters. Obviously the Russians weren't interested in that.
For all the claims that India was financing the PAK-FA the truth is they didn't contribute any money to it. What they were supposed to fund was a two-seater derivative of it. The FGFA. But even that never got funded. For all the claims the Russians couldn't finance PAK-FA development by themselves the truth is they have been able to do so.
The Russian economy is also now in a much better state than it was two years ago. The oil price has risen slightly. They have decreased their imports and increased self-reliance. So any concept they can't fund the PAK-FA R&D by themselves is, I think, quite delusional. Of course like any fighter the more units that get produced the higher the economy of scale in manufacturing will be. That and gaining weapons export revenues are the reason for making it available for sale. Even much wealthier countries like the USA export their aircraft.

With regards to a Chinese purchase I doubt it would happen in less than two years. Only once Izdeleye 30 and initial production becomes available do I think real exports would happen. Only country which I think could buy it before would be someone like Saudi Arabia with lots of money to blow and an actual war happening. But the Houtis have barely any anti-aircraft capabilities so any advantages that stealth would have would be minimal to zero.

For this and other reasons I think the first Su-57 client will likely be either Vietnam or Algeria and only in two years time or more. But definitively before 2025.

I know you fanbois love to bash India, but this is a "crock of shit", you can do a lot better than this! the Indians did pay the Russians to develop FGFA, the Russians did NOT share any development information, a piece of hardware, or allow the Indians a single flight in the multiple prototypes... complete Russian bullshit job, they took their money and didn't give them a damn thing they paid for... you really ought to do a lot better research before you post on an international military forum!

The Indians did indicate a sincere interest in PAK-FA, and the Russians told them 250 million a copy, how bout that for a deal...

gelgoog · Apr 15, 2019

Air Force Brat said:
I know you fanbois love to bash India, but this is a "crock of shit", you can do a lot better than this! the Indians did pay the Russians to develop FGFA, the Russians did NOT share any development information, a piece of hardware, or allow the Indians a single flight in the multiple prototypes... complete Russian bullshit job, they took their money and didn't give them a damn thing they paid for... you really ought to do a lot better research before you post on an international military forum!

The Indians did indicate a sincere interest in PAK-FA, and the Russians told them 250 million a copy, how bout that for a deal...

So how much did the Indians actually pay then? Pray tell.

ougoah · Apr 15, 2019

I'm going to proudly behave as the chauvinistic fanboi AFB thinks we are.

India was supposed to be responsible for FGFA financing and they thought their measly contribution was enough. The clowns supporting the post have no figures because they are classified but suffice to say, India did NOT pay anywhere near the full sum. Apply brain. If they did would they back out without getting a single plane or piece of technology?? No the reality is they paid maybe a few million definitely less than the 50-100M claimed by internet Indian fanboys. This is just to enter the program and as a show of goodwill. Nothing more. That's hardly a partner developer or investor considering the monumental program costs that Russia shouldered.

The total estimated program cost for FGFA was something like $30B USD. Wiki sources media reports suggesting the development cost at $6B USD with India supposed to contribute 35% of these total development costs. In reality those costs went up in following years and both parties could not reach mutual agreement on how the program is conducted wrt cost splitting and how much it will eventually cost may have also been disagreeable to India. On top of this, apparently they were also dissatisfied with the overall capabilities of what they will eventually be receiving which may or may not be identical to Russian onboard equipment (outside of the difference in number of seats). Add to all this, Russia's apparent refusal to give complete access to India at even finalised stages of development and their apparent refusal to give away technology. Maybe those details should have been very specifically discussed and agreed upon before jumping into bed like the iron brothers Indians like claiming about Russia.

Indian programs sure are a bit hot headed and ambitious. Celebrations everywhere before work has even progressed beyond initial stages! Everything's always going to be the absolute best thing when it gets completed. Not that long ago these cheerleaders online were telling everyone who'd listen how the PAKFA will be the best air dominance fighter. Next moment, they are trashing it. LOL too much talk not enough work. I hope Russia completes Su-57 without them and makes it into a monster of a fighter, then charges then $200M a copy with zero ToT. If they ever buy a few batches, China should do the same a few years after just to troll them

We'll see how their super duper AMCA goes. Americans ain't all that keen to include them in F-35 and even if they did, India could go broke buying even a squadron of them off the shelf. If the US wants to find a partner in this region for containing China from the west, they will need to spend a lot on India. They can start by encouraging their corporations into investing in India. Let's see how long those corporations last in such a competitive world. Their attempts at destabilising China using the whole Islamic agenda drama has found limited success and is only effective at a more psychological and political level. They want someone to act as the military threat like Japan is to the east. May I suggest Turkey? Turkey in its weakest state is conventionally stronger than India in its best. Plus there's the whole Islamic/ East Turkestan thing they can play into. Thankfully Erdogan has found some sanity and moved back towards the Russia/China sphere. Well done Russia on S-400/ F-35 drama. Securing this even further.

BTW AFB if you call others thugs before they've even had a chance to speak with civility, you've removed every incentive for them to speak with civility, especially true on a trivial internet forum.

Air Force Brat · Apr 16, 2019

ougoah said:
I'm going to proudly behave as the chauvinistic fanboi AFB thinks we are.

India was supposed to be responsible for FGFA financing and they thought their measly contribution was enough. The clowns supporting the post have no figures because they are classified but suffice to say, India did NOT pay anywhere near the full sum. Apply brain. If they did would they back out without getting a single plane or piece of technology?? No the reality is they paid maybe a few million definitely less than the 50-100M claimed by internet Indian fanboys. This is just to enter the program and as a show of goodwill. Nothing more. That's hardly a partner developer or investor considering the monumental program costs that Russia shouldered.

The total estimated program cost for FGFA was something like $30B USD. Wiki sources media reports suggesting the development cost at $6B USD with India supposed to contribute 35% of these total development costs. In reality those costs went up in following years and both parties could not reach mutual agreement on how the program is conducted wrt cost splitting and how much it will eventually cost may have also been disagreeable to India. On top of this, apparently they were also dissatisfied with the overall capabilities of what they will eventually be receiving which may or may not be identical to Russian onboard equipment (outside of the difference in number of seats). Add to all this, Russia's apparent refusal to give complete access to India at even finalised stages of development and their apparent refusal to give away technology. Maybe those details should have been very specifically discussed and agreed upon before jumping into bed like the iron brothers Indians like claiming about Russia.

Indian programs sure are a bit hot headed and ambitious. Celebrations everywhere before work has even progressed beyond initial stages! Everything's always going to be the absolute best thing when it gets completed. Not that long ago these cheerleaders online were telling everyone who'd listen how the PAKFA will be the best air dominance fighter. Next moment, they are trashing it. LOL too much talk not enough work. I hope Russia completes Su-57 without them and makes it into a monster of a fighter, then charges then $200M a copy with zero ToT. If they ever buy a few batches, China should do the same a few years after just to troll them We'll see how their super duper AMCA goes. Americans ain't all that keen to include them in F-35 and even if they did, India could go broke buying even a squadron of them off the shelf. If the US wants to find a partner in this region for containing China from the west, they will need to spend a lot on India. They can start by encouraging their corporations into investing in India. Let's see how long those corporations last in such a competitive world. Their attempts at destabilising China using the whole Islamic agenda drama has found limited success and is only effective at a more psychological and political level. They want someone to act as the military threat like Japan is to the east. May I suggest Turkey? Turkey in its weakest state is conventionally stronger than India in its best. Plus there's the whole Islamic/ East Turkestan thing they can play into. Thankfully Erdogan has found some sanity and moved back towards the Russia/China sphere. Well done Russia on S-400/ F-35 drama. Securing this even further.

BTW AFB if you call others thugs before they've even had a chance to speak with civility, you've removed every incentive for them to speak with civility, especially true on a trivial internet forum.

I'm simply "calling out" people who make up idiotic claims bashing India, the US, Russia, China, Japan, South Korea? and what does any of this have to do with Russia attempting to interest China in purchasing the Su-57E??

accuracy is the only means to get at the truth, if we don't attempt to accurately and honestly "lay it out"??? so, Russia failed to deliver, India was likely also "failing to deliver"? here again, a lack of accuracy, honesty, and good faith? blew up the whole deal...

On the other hand, Russia is NOT going to BS China, those Su-35s were in fact delivered up to spec, no one has printed a single legitimate complaint, I find that rather astounding myself?

Air Force Brat · Apr 16, 2019

gelgoog said:
So how much did the Indians actually pay then? Pray tell.

Why don't you attempt to actually "get at the truth" yourself? the truth is that Indian invested a substantial amount of money, time, and knowledge in partnering with Russia as they attempted to bring PAK-FA, and later FGFA to fruition....

being honest we are all aware that India and Russia are both prickly folks to deal with, not surprising that whole mess "blew up"?? is it???

Russian efforts to sell the Su-57/PAK FA to China

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King

ougoah

Brigadier

Biscuits

Major

ougoah

Brigadier

gelgoog

Lieutenant General

Air Force Brat

Brigadier

gelgoog

Lieutenant General

ougoah

Brigadier

Air Force Brat

Brigadier

Air Force Brat

Brigadier